Originally Posted by Tygran
therefore... a small 4b is more likely to be weak than strong? unless of course we go up a level of thinking and he knows you know that and will interpret it that way of course... (reasonably unlikely since he's an unknown to you)
I think I like this play. You are right that a competent reg is often going to 1) size correctly 2) be more apt to use aggression with a crap hand early in a session when he will get more benefit of the doubt since he is unknown.
also... i'm finding a min bet steal to work very well against certain player types at FR as well.. not that terribly unusual a play.
Bam. This post is money. We give villain every indication that we're a solid player, and villain's actions give us every indication that he knows about 4-betting light.
Yes, the play is probably not so great due to how small his 4-bet is. We have to risk 100$ to win 19.50$. If he calls with JJ+/AK, that's 3% of hands. And against that range, J8s has 27% equity. So some math (which is probably wrong)...
0.27*(200.50) - 100 = -$45.9 (expectation when called)
+$19.50 (expectation when he folds)
0 = x*19.50 + (1-x)*(-45.9)
x = 70%
So villain's gotta be 4-betting light ~70% of the time, which is a lot. After I reviewed the session I realized his min-raise + small 4-bet made the play not so good because there's not much $ to win. But what I do think is super important is the thought process I took to make this play.
I think villain's min-raise combined with the text-book size 4-bet gives him away as a player who reads poker forums
& knows about 4-betting light. And he just cannot give me credit for a light 5-bet knowing nothing about me (can you ever give anyone credit for a light 5-bet?), so he's got to fold all but JJ+/AK. Combine this with his super wide button stealing range (when you're min-raising buttons, you're doing it a lot), and the fact that early 4-bets get more respect, and I think the play starts to become break even.
FWIW, I think I can get him to fold close to 70% of the time. So while I don't think this play is ever going to be super profitable, I do think its FAR FAR less spewy than people are making this out to be, and there are MUCH bigger leaks you could have preflop.
Sometimes I post hands where I'm genuinely curious if I took the best line. This is not one of those hands. Here I was just hoping to spark some discussion about noticing crap other than just "OMG 23/19/4.2, so I tree bet preeee". Results, obviously:
Hero raises [$6.50 USD]
Villain raises [$17.00 USD]
Hero raises [$92.50 USD]
Hero wins $81.00 USD
Hero wins $38.50 USD from main pot