$100 NLHE 6-max: Is it okay to bluff raise this river?

$100 NL HE 6-max: Is it okay to bluff raise this river?

Villain was playing like 26/16/2.5 with less than 100 hands and I don't think I saw him 3 bet until then. His PFR was always to 5$, which makes me think he's newbish. I had 3 bet him myself 2 or 3 times with big hands and never got played back at, so I don't think that matters much.

I thought his 3 bet was pretty strong, but it was really small and I had position so I decided to call. I could have raised flop with 32$ already in the pot and 60$ behind him, but I thought I'd just call to see what he did on the turn and maybe I could rep the flush as well if it came later. His check + small lead on the river makes me think he's not strong at all and is just trying to block out a bluff. He's taking a really weird line and isn't really repping much imo. So after betting the river he has just over 40$ behind. My shove has to make him fold right around 50% of the time to be profitable. Should I pull the trigger or what guys?

Stacks:
* SB with $79.65
* BB with $103.95
* UTG with $27.75
* MP with $128.90
* CO with $47.20
* BTN with $174.85




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to MP:Q♦ K♣
* * Sklansky group 4
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero raises $2.50 to $3.50
* * 2 players fold.
* * SB raises $6.50 to $10
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero calls [$6.50]
* * Total folds this street: 4
* * Potsize: $21
Flop:
* * 10♠ 6♦ J♠
* * SB bets [$11]
* * Hero calls [$11]
* * Potsize: $43
Turn:
* * 4♥
* * SB: checks
* * Hero: checks
* * Potsize: $43
River:
* * 5♠
* * SB bets [$16]

Villain isn't folding anything he bets for value here. What's his 3-bet % btw? I'd prefer jamming the flop, since we've got equity, and he actually has enough money behind to fold. On the river, he'll be getting good odds to call, and I doubt this guy is good enough to fold an overpair or a jack here, even if your line is consistent with a flush draw.

After 130 hands he has 6.3 3bet%, but I think it was lower when the hand happened. I don't have that statistic on my HUD, and for some reason it doesn't appear in my pop up, any idea why btw?

I felt this particular opponnent was capable of folding the bottom of his value bet range, AJ for example if he decided to 3 bet it pre for some reason. I realize he didn't leave much behind to allow himself to fold, but I don't think he's very strong here ever. What's his line consistent with? He bet too small on the flop to have an overpair, people tend to bet over 3/4 pot with that kind of hand in these boards, especially players like him. I think the chances he has an overpair are even lower when he checks the turn...

I guess he may have JJ or TT sometimes, though again the turn check is evidence against this... then there's the possibility he played a flush draw + overs weird and I'm about to rep what he has and he shows up with AsKs or AsQs here, but even then the river bet seems too small to be that. That's why it seems like such a good bluffing opportunity here, there are very few feasible big hands he can have here in my eyes. And I only have to be successful half the time, which makes me feel even greedier. That block bet just screams "don't raise me" and I can't resist it! Plus so far I've played so much like I have a draw...

grrrr I suck. Keep em thoughts coming

vs an ok player it is fine, but the fact that villain has 80bbs doesn't really lead towards the fact that he is solid/can make decent folds. I'm not even sure that a shove even has enough behind it to give it plenty of fold equity. It will be $42 for villain to call for $117, which are pretty nice odds although by the same token you do get nice bluffing odds. I'm just not sure you should be bluff raising a player that you think is poor at playing (ie. tends to mean bad at hand reading and bad at folding) but hasn't 3B yet so has a tight range most of which (apart from AK, which probably never takes this line) has a strong hand on this board. A good rule of thumb is that you should never try to make bad players make potentially bigish folds.

Not crazy about the preflop call. Suited I think it's OK, offsuit you've removed a fairly crucial amount of equity from your hand and are hoping that you're not being 3-bet by a hand that dominates you (and assuming that AK, AQ, AA, KK and QQ are all in his 3-betting range, then you often will be).

On the flop, I think jamming is an OK play. But, and this is the key, if you're going to call instead of raise, then you HAVE to bet the turn when he checks to you. It's borderline criminal not to. Taking free cards is just another way of saying "giving up fold equity" and unless you have a VERY specific reason to believe villain will never fold a better hand, you really, really have to bet the turn.

Case in point: When you bet the river, your fold equity is roughly the same as it was on the turn, only now you have no way of improving. Your fold equity is the same, but your actual equity is much lower.