$100 NLHE 6-max: Incorrect fold of an overpair?

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Falcon1803

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/16/3

UTG limps, villain isolates 4,5 $ MP, I call with 9s9c from the batton, others fold. Stacks 100 BB
11,5$. Flop 6h5h3d, villain checks, I bet 8 $, villain calles.
27,5$. Turn 8c, villain checks, I bet 16$, villain raises to 60$, hero folds.
Now when I think of this hand I'm not sure why I folded... 88 would have bet the flop.... A7s, 77 for semibluff - also would have bet the flop... 74, 74, 68 are unlikely to be in his isolating range... 65s also... moreover it would bet the flop... Overpairs??? Sets - why not checkraise on this wet board... Now I think I was bluffed out of the best hand. Any thoughts?
 
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Henreiman

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Super polarizing line, seems like nuts or air. Can't see any semi-bluffs in his range because the turn card doesn't really supply any more equity for hands that check flop, unless it is exactly A7s. bluffing here just makes no sense so ignoring some sort of crazy leveling war, I would actually narrow Vs range to nuts (flopped sets) and fold and move on.
 
suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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I don't think this was a bluff as this was indeed a very strong move and indicated strength. I think he had at least two pair and nothing worse than that. Or it could be a set on the flop most likely which is why he checked the flop. I don't think a call on the turn would have been a god idea as it would just be a bluff catcher and he would bet even more on the river. So you made a good laydown.
 
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Falcon1803

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I don't think this was a bluff as this was indeed a very strong move and indicated strength. I think he had at least two pair and nothing worse than that. Or it could be a set on the flop most likely which is why he checked the flop. I don't think a call on the turn would have been a god idea as it would just be a bluff catcher and he would bet even more on the river. So you made a good laydown.
Only one thing baffles me - if he had a set - why not check-raise the flop on this board? Why give me a free card? What if had a draw and would make a flush or straight on the turn with say 78s... doesn't make sense to risk.... And the raise looks a bit too large...
 
suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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Only one thing baffles me - if he had a set - why not check-raise the flop on this board? Why give me a free cardWhat if had a draw and made a flush or straifht

It was heads up, although the board was wet he did not necessarily think you connected much with the board which is why he thought it was safe to check again or he was ready to take that risk to extract more value from you by checking into you.
 
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hffjd2000

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Your opponent is a shark.

Try not to involve to them unless you have premium starting hand or above average made hand.

Nice fold above.
 
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Falcon1803

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It was heads up, although the board was wet he did not necessarily think you connected much with the board which is why he thought it was safe to check again or he was ready to take that risk to extract more value from you by checking into you.
Thank you... this makes sense given that Ax of hearts and 7h8h is a tiny part of my preflop calling range so it was worth for the villain to take this risk
 
akaRobbo

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It was heads up, although the board was wet he did not necessarily think you connected much with the board which is why he thought it was safe to check again or he was ready to take that risk to extract more value from you by checking into you.

Good points. You've called his iso bet so he's assuming you missed and could have overpairs, checking his set is allowing you to catch up. Turn is a bit of a scare card, plus he wants some value so his raise is correct. Villain played this very well if did in fact flop a set.

A nice fold mate.
 
IPlay

IPlay

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If villain had a set, he played it awful. That flop was so wet that checking any made hand OOP especially, is a huge mistake. Then we get to the turn where he checks AGAIN on this wet of a board and raises to over pot now. What is going to call his raise here that is worse than a set? I just can't see a set ever taking this line, it seems I am the only one that thinks so though.

I think that he had 1010+ and was afraid that board hit your calling range on the flop so he x/c and when you bet only half pot on turn he took sets out of your range and knew he was good so he raised to punish any draws you might have there. I can also see 77 taking this line often.
 
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Falcon1803

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If villain had a set, he played it awful. That flop was so wet that checking any made hand OOP especially, is a huge mistake. Then we get to the turn where he checks AGAIN on this wet of a board and raises to over pot now. What is going to call his raise here that is worse than a set? I just can't see a set ever taking this line, it seems I am the only one that thinks so though.

I think that he had 1010+ and was afraid that board hit your calling range on the flop so he x/c and when you bet only half pot on turn he took sets out of your range and knew he was good so he raised to punish any draws you might have there. I can also see 77 taking this line often.
I agree with your points about sets. As to 77, 1010+ I disagree. Why did he check overpair or straight draw on a wet board being preflop aggressor? He gave me a free card and might end up losing to a flush, etc. I would bet 77, 1010+ 100% of the time
 
IPlay

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I agree with your points about sets. As to 77, 1010+ I disagree. Why did he check overpair or straight draw on a wet board being preflop aggressor? He gave me a free card and might end up losing to a flush, etc. I would bet 77, 1010+ 100% of the time

6 5 3 all hit your button set mining range and he was OOP so instead of betting and getting raised he x/c to see where he is at. Once he thinks you don't have a set yourself he raises to protect.
 
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swingro

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I would never reraise here without a 7 if i was a decent villain. I do not consider his range as much as his perception about you.
I think UTG was a fish it is an obvious call to get involved in the pot in position. So your percived range here as you played could contain different combos of 7 , sets, overpair. If he is decent and sees you as a decent player it is obvious that he is not beating much of this unless he has a combo of 7 himself, even a combo of hearts with a 7. The flop play is somehow curious but maybe he was not in a hurry to inflate the pot just yet thing that makes me even more inclined to think he had a combo of 7.
 
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Falcon1803

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I would never reraise here without a 7 if i was a decent villain. I do not consider his range as much as his perception about you.
I think UTG was a fish it is an obvious call to get involved in the pot in position. So your percived range here as you played could contain different combos of 7 , sets, overpair. If he is decent and sees you as a decent player it is obvious that he is not beating much of this unless he has a combo of 7 himself, even a combo of hearts with a 7. The flop play is somehow curious but maybe he was not in a hurry to inflate the pot just yet thing that makes me even more inclined to think he had a combo of 7.

So your point is that I was ahead and should have called?
 
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swingro

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So your point is that I was ahead and should have called?
I think that you are ahead and he is drawing. Also i do not think he made a mistake if he had a combo draw with a hand like Ah7h, 8h7h.WIth a set like 88 why reraise that much to make you fold? It only makes sense when he considers his equity plus the fold equity.
It could be stupid what i am saying because i never played at your lvl. But this is my opinion.
 
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GambitKing

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Think i'm going with our hand here. Villains line makes no sense-if he had a bigger pp than 99 he would have cbet otf, if he had 97s he would also cbet flop so not giving him credit for a turned straight, and I also expect him to cbet a set on this board texture- so I think there is some A8 in his range, some A7 turned semi bluff there too.
 
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Falcon1803

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Think i'm going with our hand here. Villains line makes no sense-if he had a bigger pp than 99 he would have cbet otf, if he had 97s he would also cbet flop so not giving him credit for a turned straight, and I also expect him to cbet a set on this board texture- so I think there is some A8 in his range, some A7 turned semi bluff there too.

That is exactly what I think. I think I chickened out of calling and incorrectly so. Should have given myself more time to analyze the villain's line and consider my options more carefully
 
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