$100 NLHE 6-max: I Debate Calling 2x Pot River Shove with 3rd Pair

B

bw07507

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$100 NL HE 6-max: I Debate Calling 2x Pot River Shove with 3rd Pair

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 33/12/2.6

Villain here is your typical maniacal player. I have seen him throw some overpot shoves around b4 but haven't seen him showdown. His river aggression is inf and his river aggression frequency is 71% (7 hand sample). I have 81 total hands on villain.

Basically I think he has 89 or total air here to make this move. Is there enough 8x, 9x, AQ, KQ hands here to call this shove?

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: $101.85 (101.9 bb)
MP: $55.40 (55.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $269.05 (269.1 bb)
BTN: $133.50 (133.5 bb)
SB: $207.15 (207.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 8
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8
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MP raises to $4, Hero calls $4, 3 folds

Flop: ($9.50) J
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7
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T
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(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $6.50, MP calls $6.50

Turn: ($22.50) 4
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(2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($22.50) 6
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(2 players)
MP bets $44.90 and is all-in, Hero ?
 
zachvac

zachvac

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I think this can also be a very badly played set.
 
Deco

Deco

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We want to call this guy down light, but not this light.
Also I wouldn't pay much attention to those river aggression stats with a sample this small.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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yeah i mean it largely depends on how confident you are that he'd c/r his sets and two pair hands on the flop, or otherwise play them differently

fwiw even though he's described as maniacal, his PFR is only 12 and he's raised UTG instead of limping as he surely would do with lots of his pretty but marginal hands. so idk if he'll have as many 8x or 9x type hands in his range as you have in mind (+ since you have 88 of course)

any read on his cbetting frequency? cause it's kind of interesting that he c/c'd. most players like that are happily c-betting their KQ/AK/AQ hands on this flop but if you think he's likely enough to c/c those in addition to A9/A8 stuff that could turn it into a call
 
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bw07507

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yeah i mean it largely depends on how confident you are that he'd c/r his sets and two pair hands on the flop, or otherwise play them differently

fwiw even though he's described as maniacal, his PFR is only 12 and he's raised UTG instead of limping as he surely would do with lots of his pretty but marginal hands. so idk if he'll have as many 8x or 9x type hands in his range as you have in mind (+ since you have 88 of course)

any read on his cbetting frequency? cause it's kind of interesting that he c/c'd. most players like that are happily c-betting their KQ/AK/AQ hands on this flop but if you think he's likely enough to c/c those in addition to A9/A8 stuff that could turn it into a call
Click to expand...

Hey only Cbet 1/4 chances he had to do it if that means anything
 
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