$100 NLHE 6-max: Can I continue here?

slycbnew

slycbnew

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$100 NL HE 6-max: Can I continue here?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 16/13/9

Stats over 150 hands.

Does continuing here make sense? If continuing, am I calling, or am I raising/shoving?

Oh, I called SB's donk bet on the flop to keep BTN in the hand... if that's a mistake, please say so.

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $138.80 (138.8 bb)
BTN: $102.65 (102.7 bb)
SB: $135.90 (135.9 bb)
BB: $11.50 (11.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $43.05 (43.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with Jc Ac
Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, BB folds

Flop: ($11.50) Ts 9c 7c (3 players)
SB bets $4, Hero calls $4, BTN raises to $16, SB calls $12, Hero ???
 
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WossaPotOddz

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you were getting 4-1 from the small blind, then 3-1 from the button raise, you need 4-1 to draw to your nut flush...not to mention the gut shot straight. Just call.
 
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soonerdel

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ur getting the right price to draw too.. plus implied odds are huge if u hit.. flush draw plus inside str draw gives u many outs. id find it tough to lay this down but with my luck i would brick turn and river.
 
slycbnew

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Does anyone like raising?
 
RogueRivered

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Yes, all-in. Every time! Seriously.
 
slycbnew

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Yes, all-in. Every time! Seriously.

Here's why I posted this - even if he's pretty agg postflop, I don't think this villain will raise here with just top pair (maybe an overpair?) - I think his range is pretty much 77+ weighted to 77-TT. I have zero FE I think (since I'm assuming he's pretty strong here), so I'm not sure a shove makes sense?
 
RogueRivered

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I am re-evaluating this -- I gave an off-the-cuff response last time kind of thinking about a strategy I heard where someone would go all-in here with a draw 3 out of 4 times, but the 4th time he would have top set. In that case, no matter what your opponent did, he would lose over the long run. Therefore, my response of "every time" can't be right -- it's only right as part of a larger strategy to keep your opponent guessing.

After thinking about this further . . . you have about a 35% chance of making a flush by the river, but you might still lose to a full house, but your opponents might fold if you raise now, but if one re-raises all-in, then I don't think you will have the odds to call unless the 3rd opponent also calls. Too many buts, I can't figure it out. I guess just call. (I am assuming one of your opponents has a set or an 8 for a straight draw).

If you could bet in such away that all 3 players ended up all-in, you'd break even over the long run, so unless you have good fold equity, why bother.
 
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WossaPotOddz

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I think his range is pretty much 77+ weighted to 77-TT. I have zero FE I think (since I'm assuming he's pretty strong here), so I'm not sure a shove makes sense?

Yup :)

Add the fact you're pretty much getting the exact odds you need to flat call it makes this an easy decision.

Save 12+ out shoves for spots with slightly more fold equity. A 3way flop that's gone bet/call/raise/call just is not good enough because the range of the raiser is so polarised towards the snap-call double super duper fisty pump that shoving into it will cost money in the long run.

edit: also if turn is king or queen it upgrades your gutshot straight to a double belly buster so not only do you have 15 outs instead of 12, it also means you can say "double belly buster" which is an extremely cool thing to say.
 
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slycbnew

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OK, calling makes sense. Thanks everyone.
 
slycbnew

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edit: also if turn is king or queen it upgrades your gutshot straight to a double belly buster so not only do you have 15 outs instead of 12, it also means you can say "double belly buster" which is an extremely cool thing to say.

lol, i love that phrase... :D
 
RogueRivered

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it also means you can say "double belly buster" which is an extremely cool thing to say.

When I was in college, a place I'd go had burgers called "double belly busters." That was my favorite item on the menu.:)
 
Deco

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I think we should have raised the flop as that $4 bet cant be given much respect.
For the same reason and because we have 12outs as played I'm shoving.

Its a drawy board the donk bet was patheticly small so this raise could be an assortment of draws and toppairs we have fold equity against.

On top of this fold equity I expect we have at least 40% showdown equity with our nut flush and gutshot draws, plus our overcards may be good against the combodraws that will call us.
 
Deltafrost

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even if your range is spot on we're only a 60-40 dog. you need a fold a very small part of the time.


However I'm with deco, I like just raising flop and getting it in.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

14,850 games 0.005 secs 2,970,000 games/sec

Board: 7c 9c Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.882% 38.52% 00.36% 5720 54.00 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 61.118% 60.75% 00.36% 9022 54.00 { TT-77 }
 
NineLions

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Here's why I posted this - even if he's pretty agg postflop, I don't think this villain will raise here with just top pair (maybe an overpair?) - I think his range is pretty much 77+ weighted to 77-TT. I have zero FE I think (since I'm assuming he's pretty strong here), so I'm not sure a shove makes sense?

Yeah, but if your flush fills, or even if the straight fills, how likely are you to get paid off? If this is $10nl maybe a good chance, but less likely at $100nl.

And if neither hits on the turn, your pot equity has decreased because there's only one more card to come and if you call to the river and hit, then you only have one street remaining to collect. I like jamming now.
 
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WossaPotOddz

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Why would you bother risking an entire buy in when we can call and get the exact odds we need?

Yes we get a small amount of profit from fold equity on top of when we hit outs......but we make more money by flat calling the raise with the correct odds and getting more money in after we have actually hit our hand.
 
Deltafrost

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Why would you bother risking an entire buy in when we can call and get the exact odds we need?

Yes we get a small amount of profit from fold equity on top of when we hit outs......but we make more money by flat calling the raise with the correct odds and getting more money in after we have actually hit our hand.

because its profitable long term? its maximizing profit and equity. Not about worrying if your gonna when your ahead.

Plus like NL said, if the draws fill how likely are we to get paid off?
 
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WossaPotOddz

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because its profitable long term? its maximizing profit and equity. Not about worrying if your gonna when your ahead.

Plus like NL said, if the draws fill how likely are we to get paid off?

In a 3 way pot it's highly likely we will get more money in.

I think you do not understand the semi-bluff concept, there is a time and a place for it and this isn't it.

It is more profitable in the long run in this situation to call with the correct odds if we're being given them. Just looking at our hand and going, "holy crap we've got more than 10 outs, SHOVE ALL IN!!" just because we've got 12 outs is very linear thinking.
 
Deco

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"holy crap we've got more than 10 outs, SHOVE ALL IN!!"

lol I don't think this is a bad thinking process.
Its fairly rare when calling with a monster draw is preferable to getting the money in.

Yes calling with the correct odds is always going to be EV+
However shoving with a ton of fold equity + showdown equity is going to be even better for our winrate.

Hopefully someone more mathematically able than I can show you proof of this.
Or you could trust me:D
 
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WossaPotOddz

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lol I don't think this is a bad thinking process.
Its fairly rare when calling with a monster draw is preferable to getting the money in.

Yes calling with the correct odds is always going to be EV+
However shoving with a ton of fold equity + showdown equity is going to be even better for our winrate.

Hopefully someone more mathematically able than I can show you proof of this.
Or you could trust me:D

Haha, it's not that I don't trust you buddy it's just that I have enough experience in this particular spot to know that shoving into this flop with this much action is only going to be marginally +EV compared to just flatting and betting 2 (or sometimes 1) street for value.

I'll run some numbers tomorrow in between my morning and afternoon sessions and post the results and you guys can fiddle with the numbers to suit your personal ranges etc.
 
slycbnew

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Yeah, but if your flush fills, or even if the straight fills, how likely are you to get paid off? If this is $10nl maybe a good chance, but less likely at $100nl.

And if neither hits on the turn, your pot equity has decreased because there's only one more card to come and if you call to the river and hit, then you only have one street remaining to collect. I like jamming now.

This convinced me though I'd still like to see the math if someone's inclined (I suck at math).

The crux of this post was my perception that I had zero FE with the nit BTN on the flop and I'm a 60/40 dog to my perception of his range - but I think that's distracting me from the real concern here, getting paid off on a hit and not being forced to fold a brick turn, analogous to why flatting 4bets pf w AK is bad.

The reason the post is titled "can I continue" is because I didn't like the idea of calling, but also couldn't get the math to support a shove (without FE), though Wossa, Rogue, and sooner pointed out I had pot odds - it felt too passive to me, but I couldn't get the logic to work in my head.

FWIW, I went with my gut instinct rather than logic (delta's seen me do many dumber things on gut instinct :D ), raised the flop (BTN went all in, SB folded, I called - I realize shoving > raising) and rivered an 8 to beat BTN's set. The turn was a total brick, I would've folded to a turn psb/shove from BTN had I called the flop.
 
WVHillbilly

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This convinced me though I'd still like to see the math if someone's inclined (I suck at math).

The crux of this post was my perception that I had zero FE with the nit BTN on the flop and I'm a 60/40 dog to my perception of his range - but I think that's distracting me from the real concern here, getting paid off on a hit and not being forced to fold a brick turn, analogous to why flatting 4bets pf w AK is bad.

The reason the post is titled "can I continue" is because I didn't like the idea of calling, but also couldn't get the math to support a shove (without FE), though Wossa, Rogue, and sooner pointed out I had pot odds - it felt too passive to me, but I couldn't get the logic to work in my head.

FWIW, I went with my gut instinct rather than logic (delta's seen me do many dumber things on gut instinct :D ), raised the flop (BTN went all in, SB folded, I called - I realize shoving > raising) and rivered an 8 to beat BTN's set. The turn was a total brick, I would've folded to a turn psb/shove from BTN had I called the flop.

Key point bolded.

If we get our $$ in on the flop, I would, we get to see both the turn and the river. If we call and miss on the turn we'll have to fold to his likely shove because our equity drops so much.

I like shoving a lot more than calling here.
 
Deco

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The crux of this post was my perception that I had zero FE with the nit BTN on the flop

We have far from zero fold equity.
16/13/9 isnt exactly a nit if that 9 is aggression factor.

The donk bet was very small. We cannot treat the raise with the same respect if the BTN had raised a potsized bet. I think this could be anything from toppair to a draw.

Even if we did have low fold equity, we have two of them in the pot.
Is the worst case scenario both of them calling and we have 40% equity to triple up? In which case even with zero fold equity we would profit.

If one folds the other calls we have some dead money which is always nice, plus I think 40% equity is an inaccurate figure.
40% presume we are against sets.
Lesser flush draws we are actually ahead off
Straight/pair combo draws we have aces and jacks as outs as well which should make us a favourite once again.

On top of this you would be amazed at the respect a 3bet shove on the flop gets.
 
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WossaPotOddz

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This has been an entertaining thread.

For the sake of argument I began calculations accounting for 10% fold equity, which is extremely generous given the lines taken by the players in the hand.

Now we need to calculate the calling range. My personal range is (77, 99, TT, T9) because weaker hands such as JT-AT either raise much more or flat call. The other hands (of which there aren't many) that call the PF raise then raise/fold the flop go into the fold equity calculations.

AcJc V's this range wins 38.025% of the time, we invest $92.50 and the final pot is $220, 38.025% of which will be ours which = $83.65 per hand. 92.50 - 83.65 = 8.85 so any time we push all in and get called we lose $8.85 per hand

Fold equity nets us $47.50 per hand so after 100 hands

fold equity nets us $475 profit
getting called loses us $796.50 meaning a total loss of $321.5 or 3.2BB's per hand

even if we tinker with the fold equity figures we still need need about 15% just to break even on our investment.

We break even on our investment by just flat calling the raise on the flop. Anything we get in after this point is pure profit except for the time we hit our flush then the set re-draws to the boat but that only happens (8/47)*(10/46)% of the time.

So what do you guys think. There is clearly some room for debate over fold equity % and the hand ranges like, he might take this line with QT or something? I really do think there is little to no fold equity in this hand and like I said, the 10% was very generous
 
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WossaPotOddz

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On top of this you would be amazed at the respect a 3bet shove on the flop gets.

Button isn't folding $80 into $140 very often with the hero having just called the initial minibet on such a dangerous board.

edit; and I keep forgetting to add this.....OP you really should be raising that flop like every single time.
 
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RogueRivered

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So what do you guys think. There is clearly some room for debate over fold equity % and the hand ranges like, he might take this line with QT or something? I really do think there is little to no fold equity in this hand and like I said, the 10% was very generous

I think you are right. To look at it simply, we have about a 35% chance of making the flush, so we need 2:1 to break even. The only way to get 2:1 is to get both players all-in, i.e. their 2 to our 1. If we get one of them to fold, but the other goes all-in, then we get a little dead money, but not enough to make up for the fact that we are only get 1:1 from the non-folder. The only way I see to preserve our equity is to take the odds of calling every time in this situation -- we'll lose 2/3 of the time, but we'll win 1/3 and we don't have to invest our entire stack just to break even. I don't believe we'll get two folders if we shove here. Even if we did, we'd probably do better getting paid off on later streets for the 1/3 of the time we make our flush. We may think that no one would pay us off, but I think we could get some more in if we bet carefully.
 
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