Originally Posted by NineLions
Yeah, but if your flush fills, or even if the straight fills, how likely are you to get paid off? If this is $10nl maybe a good chance, but less likely at $100nl.
And if neither hits on the turn, your pot equity has decreased because there's only one more card to come and if you call to the river and hit, then you only have one street remaining to collect. I like jamming now.
This convinced me though I'd still like to see the math if someone's inclined (I suck at math).
The crux of this post was my perception that I had zero FE with the nit BTN on the flop and I'm a 60/40 dog to my perception of his range - but I think that's distracting me from the real concern here, getting paid off on a hit and not being forced to fold a brick turn, analogous to why flatting 4bets pf w AK is bad.
The reason the post is titled "can I continue" is because I didn't like the idea of calling, but also couldn't get the math to support a shove (without FE), though Wossa, Rogue, and sooner pointed out I had pot odds
- it felt too passive to me, but I couldn't get the logic to work in my head.
FWIW, I went with my gut instinct rather than logic (delta's seen me do many dumber things on gut instinct ), raised the flop (BTN went all in, SB folded, I called - I realize shoving > raising) and rivered an 8 to beat BTN's set. The turn was a total brick, I would've folded to a turn psb/shove from BTN had I called the flop.