$100 NLHE 6-max: Hero's rivered set completes all of Villain's draws

slycbnew

slycbnew

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$100 NL HE 6-max: Hero's rivered set completes all of Villain's draws

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/19/6

Stats over 1.1K hands. 3bet 7%, raises 25% on flop, folds 50% on flop.

I toyed with leading out on the turn, felt the J hit my range harder than his, ultimately checked with the intention of shoving over any bet he made - didn't happen, but is that reasoning ok?

As played, am I nuts for considering calling the river?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $94 (94 bb)
BTN: $337.75 (337.8 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $128.45 (128.5 bb)
UTG: $153.30 (153.3 bb)
Hero (MP): $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with Kd Kc
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50) Qs Th 2s (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO raises to $18.50, Hero calls $12.50

Turn: ($45.50) Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($45.50) Ks (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $20, Hero ???
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I'm just 3betting flop and getting it in. This guy raises way more than a pure value range (ie hands that beat KK) and as such probably expects people to stack/play back kinda light, so I don't expect him to fold KQ, KJ or big flush draws.

Turn reasoning is fine, but I really like stacking flop.

As played on river I guess he could be going for thin value with KQ/KJ but QJ bets turn and maybe doesn't raise flop, QT gets it in on the flop, and I guess KT might make sense too. All those Kx hands are pretty unlikely though given our KK, so basically it leaves us with some A+pair hands and spade draws, all of which got there, plus he's putting in a super inviting bet. So I fold.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Great flop reasoning, thanks, makes perfect sense.
 
ItsMe

ItsMe

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Looks like a monster draw type bet from him on the flop. Tempted to re re-raise but I think he probably calls it. Then it's down to how the cards break. Given turn and river cards, he is probably well ahead and his bet is designed to extract maximum value from any possible Ax you might have. Fold (unfortunately).
 
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