$100 NLHE 6-max: Hero call?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 27/24/5.1

Hero (UTG) $134.75 (134bbs)
Villain (BTN) $112.00 (112bbs)

Preflop: KdQd

Hero bets $3.50 folds to villain who calls.

Flop: 2d5c6s (pot is $8.50)

Hero bets $6.50, Villain calls.

Turn: As (pot is $21.50)

Hero checks, villain checks.

River: 2c (pot is $21.50)

Hero bets $11.00, Villain bets $32.50, Hero...?


Here are my thoughts. Villain is somewhat loose and thinking. I know his range in calling me is fairly tight, given I am UTG. So its likely High cards (AQ+, 22-TT, middle connected cards) and a few other things.

I checked the turn because I was trying to play this the same way I might play AK. I regularly check AK there so I can get value on the river. I think he knows that.

I can, I think, remove all the good A's from his hand. I dontthink he is ever checking that turn, given the number of A's I could have and all the other pair hands that have to call ifhe is repping an A.

I think his river bet is 100% polarized to sets and air, with Air being there fairly often, given the busted draws out there and the liklihood of me holding an A. this could be a full house as well, but I still dont think he checks back A2 on that turn.

Thoughts?

Can you fully exclude 65 from his range on the river?

I checked the turn because I was trying to play this the same way I might play AK. I regularly check AK there so I can get value on the river. I think he knows that.

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It seems like it would require thousands of hands of history for him to have seen you check AK in similar spots enough times that he'd expect you to do so. Plus even with enough hands, he'd still have to be a player who tracks opponents to that degree. Not impossible by any means, but might you be giving him too much credit?

Arjonius said:

Can you fully exclude 65 from his range on the river?


It seems like it would require thousands of hands of history for him to have seen you check AK in similar spots enough times that he'd expect you to do so. Plus even with enough hands, he'd still have to be a player who tracks opponents to that degree. Not impossible by any means, but might you be giving him too much credit?

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Good points.

I could certainly see a 56 here, I think that probably bets the turn too. I could be wrong, but with two pair I would be suprised to see that here. though not floored by it

Certainly I cannot expect him to put me on AK specifically, but maybe more "strong A." I should say he has seen me take this line in the past with AK, and I would think he is aware that I would/could take that line on this flop. I think he would NEVER put me on only AK, but I think he would expect to see that here. Though it could also be JJ+, or certainly the exact hand I have.

But all that taken into account, my KQ is almost no different than AK is here. Since he is never (almost) taking this line with an A he either is bluffing with nothing or crushing me.

my eqity with AK here probably runs almost even with my KQ.

I called, he had 78o. fwiw.

Ubercroz said:

my eqity with AK here probably runs almost even with my KQ.

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I agree his range looks polarized to 2 pair+ and bluffs. Nice call. I don't know if I'd have.

Arjonius said:

I agree his range looks polarized to 2 pair+ and bluffs. Nice call. I don't know if I'd have.

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The reason I called was I thought his range was polarized, but much more strongly weighted towards bluffs than it was towards value hands.

I'm not saying it was necessarily right. I think it was, but I may be giving myself to much credit because I happened to be right.

It could be this is a snap fold, and I (as self proclaimed calling station) just couldn't give him credit because of how the hand played out.

Was your opponent JhonA? He has a similar hand posted but from the other side of the board

the way the hand plays out looks like you had a good solid read and made a nice call but don't be suprised if you don't get it right next time out lol

thatgreekdude said:

the way the hand plays out looks like you had a good solid read and made a nice call but don't be suprised if you don't get it right next time out lol

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Excellent point. I think I would be right often enough for this to be profitable. Its pretty opponent dependant.

I have made these calls and rolled my eyes that I missed the obvious, though I don't do that as much now.