$100 NLHE 6-max: Flopped straight gone bad

$100 NL HE 6-max: Flopped straight gone bad

poker stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 581666
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MP: $54.95
CO: $30.20
BTN: $97.50
SB: $100.00
Hero (BB): $101.50
UTG: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 5 ♠ 2 ♠
3 folds, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks

Flop: ($3.00) 4 ♠ 6 ♦ 3 ♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, BTN raises to $6, SB folds, Hero raises to $17, BTN calls $11

Turn: ($37.00) 5 ♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN raises to $50, Hero ???

Villain sat down for only a few hands before this hand came up. Seeing as he limps the button, it's safe to assume that he's not a reg or anything. On the flop, I just tried to build the pot as much as I could.

On the turn, having the donkey end of the straight would make it an easy bet/fold probably but having the FD complicates things. When villain raises we're getting pretty close to odds to chase the FD. Is it still a bet/fold, bet/call or bet/shove? (Bet/shove has no fold equity but it commits any FDs that are semibluffing/sets that can't let, etc.) Or is check/folding best (I don't think so cause of the fact that we have decent equity still with the flush outs)?

First off on that board I probably raise flop a lot bigger, like to 22-24 or so. Of course that still makes turn suck. Turn does kinda suck though lol I definitely think there's value in a bet but when raised we basically have what amounts to a naked FD. What would you do with T9s here? We're not getting that great odds and we're basically never good here. I think I just bet/fold turn here.

Are we really only crediting Villain w 75 and 77 here, never a set/2pr/fd/overpair? I realize we think he's not a reg so is less likely to be pushing fd's for example (but then is more likely to overvalue 2 pr and a set here I think), I'm not thrilled, but I think our equity against a broad range that includes other stuff is pretty good - obv against 75/77 specifically we're a dog.

Zero FE, but I don't think I let this go, only question in my mind is call or shove, and I lean to the shove for the reasons given by polakpoker.

Do you agree he is never bluffing? Do you also agree there are far more 7x in his range than 2x? He can also have stuff like 78/any 7x of spades which means hero could be basically drawing dead. I mean sure you'll see the occasional horribly played AA but I think against a random's range we're just so ridiculously far behind. Would your action change if we had 52 of clubs? Why?

Actually, you've kinda hit the nail on the head for me - the only 7's that make sense to me given the action are 77 and 75, and there aren't that many combos of those - and really, 77 is just as suicidal as JJ on that flop, so it gets even narrower imo. I really can't credit any other 7 (76? 87? blech). That's why I'm having problems narrowing his range that much and am including 2pr/sets/flush draws.

slycbnew said:

Actually, you've kinda hit the nail on the head for me - the only 7's that make sense to me given the action are 77 and 75, and there aren't that many combos of those - and really, 77 is just as suicidal as JJ on that flop, so it gets even narrower imo. I really can't credit any other 7 (76? 87? blech). That's why I'm having problems narrowing his range that much and am including 2pr/sets/flush draws.

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I would actualy expect As7x/As7s more then 77/75.
Both thouse hands are gonna ship the flop alot of the time and 77 is gonna fold alot aswell imo.

Two main problems with this hand.

1) The flop reraise size. Jam it bigger or just call (I'd prefer jamming it bigger)

2) Check the turn. We don't want to be raised, betting will likely fold out 2 pairs and although we will get value out of sets by betting, sets will likely bet themselves if we check. Checking also allows opponent to bluff flush draws and 5x

Betting the turn puts us in a weird spot where we're basically asking a question of is he bluffing or isn't he (since effectively all we have is a bluff catcher). I also think limiting villians 7 range to 75 is a mistake. Many villains will raise/call (the baby reraise) with 77 76 87 (dd, ss, or sometimes random) as well. He will also always call with 7s Xs

This is tough. I don't know what range we can put him on based on his bets that include a seven. 57? 67? He certainly could have hit the backdoor diamond flush draw with either of these hands, or maybe has something like x7 spades. If you had asked me what he had on the flop, something like 65. He's jamming with a set on the flop...probably with two pair too. Based on his post-flop play, I think we have to put him on 6/7, 6/5 (donk), or 77. So even though there was a lot of musing in this little post, my conclusion is that he has us beat, I'd say about 90-95% of the time.

But then our redraw comes into play. We have the 52s, and assuming every spade is good - which I think it is, b/c imo he's not raising turn with two spade overcards, and he's jamming a pair/spade flush/gutshot flop - we're not getting enough odds to see it. He has 30 bucks left so no FE on our part, and you're getting 3.7:1ish while you need 4.2:1ish. Now some may say there is no point flatting, you may as well get your money in if you go with it. But at the same time, because he has no fold equity, if you flat the turn and YOU ONLY CALL WHEN THE SPADE COMES, I think you're actually getting implied odds, though I may be completely wrong here. So the question becomes, if the spade doesn't hit and you know you're beat (although you could still have the winner I guess), can you fold to save that last 30 bucks? I think actually that if you can do that, you should call. But then again, I'm a donkey.

BTW, I should mention that assuming he is normally a lower stakes player who moved up out of anger or whatever, such a low raise usually means that he's got a big hand and wants you in. Or I guess he could just be really bad at bluffing, but you haven't slowed down so he can't know that's a scare card (unless he's some super advanced player doing a video or something and has the hand analyzed as its going).

What's our reasoning for betting the turn?

shove.

if he has the 7 thats sucks but i think most of time he is turning over a set or 2 pair possibly a bluff. im shoving here but thats just me

ChuckTs said:

What's our reasoning for betting the turn?

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The reason I bet the turn was to get value from his sets/2 pair hands that probably check back if I check. The more I look at it, the more I think check/calling is the better option because it gives him a chance to bluff and I don't mind giving him a free card because there aren't any real turn cards that I hate to see (apart from maybe a diamond).

I also agree the flop 3bet should be a lot bigger. I guess I just standardize the flop 3bet to 3x-3.5x his reraise, knowing if he's got a hand I can get stacks in by the river but with all the action killing cards that can roll off on the turn, its better to build a pot on earlier streets.

As far as villains range on the turn, its mostly sets/65/77/76/As7s. I agree he's never outright bluffing because his sizing definitely points to something with decent strength. If villain was a reg and made this same play, I believe it'd be a snap fold as its never a set/2 pair cause sets/2 pair aren't going to be considered strong on this board.

polakpoker4 said:

The reason I bet the turn was to get value from his sets/2 pair hands that probably check back if I check. The more I look at it, the more I think check/calling is the better option because it gives him a chance to bluff and I don't mind giving him a free card because there aren't any real turn cards that I hate to see (apart from maybe a diamond).

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Exactly. On top of that, we don't need to worry about charging sets as they're not really in their range (because they almost always try to get it in on the flop, and there's only 1 combo of 55), and hands that improved to two pair on the turn have so little equity that we don't have to worry about charging that part of his range (and again, the combos that improved to 2pair on the turn contain a 5, and we've got those discounted. Any flopped 2 pair almost always gets it in too).

Also, if villian had an overpair he's really unlikely to call (unless it's 77 ofc), so we really want to induce from those hands.

So I'm check/calling virtually any bet from this guy since it induces so much.

umm it's a random fish just bet and let him call with all his weak draws from FDs to gutters to whatever else fish like to call with. He limped the button, he's probably going to make the mistake of calling too much. Make him make that mistake. I don't think he'll make the mistake of raising too much so I think bet/fold is perfect line here.

Oh and there's also the part where ch/c oop basically turns our hand face up so we just have to play guessing games with how much they're bluffing/vbetting worse/etc. and basically life just sucks.