$100 NLHE 6-max: Float Turns into Top Pair Facing River Bet

B

bw07507

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$100 NL HE 6-max: Float Turns into Top Pair Facing River Bet

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 19/14/1.6

I have ~400 hands on villain. He barrels turn 57% (7 samples) and river 67% (3 samples). I decide to float flop here with position, planning to take it away if he checks the turn. Turn Ace gives me TPGK and is a perfect card for him to double barrel. I'm confused by his river bet here though, it really looks like he wants a call. Also is there any point in turning my hand into a bluff here and jamming? I play ~20/18/2.5

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP: $117.85 (117.9 bb)
CO: $106.85 (106.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $105.50 (105.5 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $84 (84 bb)
UTG: $68.80 (68.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with A
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J
club.gif

2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 2
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2
club.gif
9
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(2 players)
CO bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) A
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(2 players)
CO bets $14, Hero calls $14

River: ($48.50) 8
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(2 players)
CO bets $25, Hero ?
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Kinda surprised he wasn't scared at all that you flatted his turn cbet when the Ace hit because that really shows you hit the Ace. If he's the type to just blindly bet-bet-bet here you clearly have to call because he shows up with TT-KK here I am sure, and as it is with his 14% PFR range you have 73-26 equity. So I'm not folding but I guess we're hoping he shows up with that pocket pair range or a weaker Ace. Unfortunately he might show up with A9, A8 AQ or AK here a lot too, so I don't like raising. My 2 cents.
 
Richyl2008

Richyl2008

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I wouldn't turn your hand into a bluff on this river. There is only 2hands that beat you that can fold AK,AQ and he may not be capable of folding it. Im sort of indifferent to calling or folding the river, probably lean towards calling though. He might have turned backdoor club draw, or thinks you have some sort of middle pair that can fold.
 
benevg

benevg

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Hands that beat you: AA, 99, 88, AK, AQ, A9, A8, A2
Hands that you beat: other PPs, AT, A7-, could he really have KQ-?

Admittedly, I have not played 6-max much, but shoving here seems like it would fold most of the hands you beat, and almost none of the hands that beat you (exception AK and AQ, though as Richyl said above, maybe not), so I don't see the point... unless you think you can persuade him with this shove that you have hit a set/house and fold his 2-pair hand. Or is this way off?

Calling would be my preferred line here, although I would fully expect him to turn A8 and win... :(

And folding is always an option, although I think he would play KK ot AT in a very similar way...
 
sky4ever

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That river bet could also be a defensive bet to prevent you from bluffing him in throwing away his weak holding.There`s also the case in witch he`s way ahead.A call I think it`s the correct play here since benevg already specified that he`s not going to pay you`re shove if you have him beat.
 
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bw07507

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Hands that beat you: AA, 99, 88, AK, AQ, A9, A8, A2
Hands that you beat: other PPs, AT, A7-, could he really have KQ-?

Admittedly, I have not played 6-max much, but shoving here seems like it would fold most of the hands you beat, and almost none of the hands that beat you (exception AK and AQ, though as Richyl said above, maybe not), so I don't see the point... unless you think you can persuade him with this shove that you have hit a set/house and fold his 2-pair hand. Or is this way off?

Calling would be my preferred line here, although I would fully expect him to turn A8 and win... :(

And folding is always an option, although I think he would play KK ot AT in a very similar way...

That river bet could also be a defensive bet to prevent you from bluffing him in throwing away his weak holding.There`s also the case in witch he`s way ahead.A call I think it`s the correct play here since benevg already specified that he`s not going to pay you`re shove if you have him beat.

Im not raising for value on the river. I would be turning my hand into a bluff to get him to fold AQ/AK
 
Deco

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I think 9 time out of ten this is going to be another ace.
By the looks of this guys aggression factor I find it unlikely he is bluffing.
I also doubt KK would bet here and I'm not completely convinced AT would bet here either.

I really don't like the raise.
We just cannot trust this guy to fold AQ/AK here. Plus A9 and A8 are likely well within his range.

I'd like a fold here AT isn't holding up many conbos, in the heat of battle I'd probably call tbh though.
 
benevg

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Im not raising for value on the river. I would be turning my hand into a bluff to get him to fold AQ/AK

in that case, i would argue against. it is quite possible that he wouldn't find a fold there even with those hands... it would be 3:1 pot odds for him, after all.
 
dcor

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I don't know if he raises a8 in the cutoff for sure with 14pfr...I really feel like he is somewhat truthful with his af and puts you on a wider range with you in position. Let's not rule out 88, 99, aa either....he doesn't seem donkish with the info you have put out....you told him you had an ace on the turn...and that would explain his river bet of no fear (or so he wants you to think)....he's still getting fold equity from you as well....I just can't put the way he is betting on air, can't put him on really anything that you beat....I'm really curious to know his session stats....anyone put this on pokerstove?
 
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