Originally Posted by Aleksei
You do not ever fold bottom set to a 2/3 pot bet when the only thing on the board is a low straight draw. You need to win like 28% of the time to make the call profitable and you have everyone's range crushed. Two-pair and AA/KK always bet hoping to rep a bluff, or even as straight value bets if Villain isn't a nit (in that hand it's unlikely).
Sets are a ridiculously tiny portion of any range. Your basic assumption should not be that he has one.
To be fair I wasn't worried about set over set, I'd of got it in on flop if possible and if its a cooler its a cooler.
The fact he leads out on the turn which puts 4 to a straight on board concerns me as it completes the obvious draw. I think this discounts him playing 99 conservatively so no way will he lead out on a straight card with that holding.
The rivers irrelevant and he bets nearly the pot I'm folding as I'm still daed to a straight.
And I would say 9-5 is easily in his range being as he only has to call 1.50 into
the pot to see a flop. I would believe at that table for that pot a lot of guys would call with ATC on SB. But although I can't discount it completely I think 99 would raise pre flop so is less likely to be his holding.
Hated folding it though, was actually shaking after he showed the 9 face up lol!