$100 NLHE 6-max: donk turn w overpair

polakpoker4

polakpoker4

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$100 NL HE 6-max: donk turn w overpair

Sorry for messing up title....

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/17/3

poker stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 599039
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $127.60
UTG: $100.00
CO: $99.50
BTN: $196.35
SB: $188.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 9 9
2 folds, BTN raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) 5 5 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN calls $10

River: ($35.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $23, Hero ???

Villain cbets flop 70%, cbets turn 50%, and folds to 3bet 77%. What do you think of my line? I've been trying out donks a little bit and I'm not sure how its going. My reasoning for the donk on the turn is that I don't want him to check back this turn with like AdXx or 77/88. What do you guys think?

As for river, how often is villain bluffing here? I don't love the J but its kind of a blank unless he has like AdJx or KdJx. Do I have to call here or is it a fold?
 
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baudib1

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bet-fold the river, as played, um, flip a coin.

would be nice to have some other reads besides his c-betting stats, seems you must have observed him in at least a few showdowns?
 
cucumber_pandas

cucumber_pandas

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i hate donking the turn. A good player is never checking back something like AdK here. Against most people on this type of board u can ch/call, ch/call, ch/fold as not many players are good enough to fire 3 barrels as a bluff at 100NL.
 
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Ubercroz

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Maybe c/r the flop rather than c/c flop and then bet the turn. I think I see where you were going with that since its a nice bluff card if he wasn't trying to fill a draw himself.

I think a c/r on the flop gives you a better idea as to the strength of his hand- probably folds a lot pp you beat but I would rather know where I am at early in this hand with that board.

I think it would also save you some money since you can put less in the pot than if you c/c flop, bet turn (like c/r it to 12.00 and its 2.50 cheaper if you decide not to put any more $$ in on the turn).
 
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Ubercroz

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Also, 3-bet preflop? tough to play these mid-pp when your out of position.
 
cucumber_pandas

cucumber_pandas

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Maybe c/r the flop rather than c/c flop and then bet the turn. I think I see where you were going with that since its a nice bluff card if he wasn't trying to fill a draw himself.

I think a c/r on the flop gives you a better idea as to the strength of his hand- probably folds a lot pp you beat but I would rather know where I am at early in this hand with that board.

I think it would also save you some money since you can put less in the pot than if you c/c flop, bet turn (like c/r it to 12.00 and its 2.50 cheaper if you decide not to put any more $$ in on the turn).

Whats your plan if you get 3bet after you ch/r the flop?? What if you ch/r, he calls?? What do you do on blank turns?? What about on flush filling cards or overcards? You need to have a plan for the rest of the hand based on what you do on each street. Ch/ring to "see where you are at" or "for information" is really not a good reason to ch/r imo. Unless you know that villain is gonna spaz after you ch/r, I think its not a good play and I much prefer ch/calling.
 
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Ubercroz

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Whats your plan if you get 3bet after you ch/r the flop?? What if you ch/r, he calls?? What do you do on blank turns?? What about on flush filling cards or overcards? You need to have a plan for the rest of the hand based on what you do on each street. Ch/ring to "see where you are at" or "for information" is really not a good reason to ch/r imo. Unless you know that villain is gonna spaz after you ch/r, I think its not a good play and I much prefer ch/calling.

My plan for the rest of the hand is c/f unless I hit a set.

c/c basically sets us up for being in a crappy spot for the rest of the hand. We have a marginal hand oop, lets find out where we are, most of the time he folds, some of the time he doesn't.

Sometimes when he doesn't we still hit a set.

Sometimes when we c/r he checks behind the turn.

Sometimes when we c/r the flop we get to showdown cheap.

Sometimes we're crushed on the flop and we find out more cheaply with a c/r than c/c flop, c/c turn, c/c river.

c/c seems like a worse plan tbh because now we're oop and have no idea how strong of a hand we're looking at.
 
polakpoker4

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would be nice to have some other reads besides his c-betting stats, seems you must have observed him in at least a few showdowns?

The stats are from datamined hands so I didnt really have a good read on villain except for his stats.

Also, 3-bet preflop? tough to play these mid-pp when your out of position.

I felt 99 was strong enough to flat and by 3betting I would be folding out a ton that Im ahead of. Obviously I get myself in shitty situations but I dont think I mind my flat (although I will 3bet sometimes as well)


Theres definitely reasons for both c/c and c/r this flop. I didn't want to c/r this flop because I didnt want to get shoved on by like OCs or FDs when I still have good equity in the pot but have to fold to the shove. As far c/c'ing 3 streets.. I feel like it turns my hand too face up and Ill get 3 barreled a ton and will have to fold my hand. I'm probably giving 100NL players too much credit but ya..
 
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I dislike donking the turn as it doesn't accomplish much. We're never folding out TT+, overcards with diamonds are rarely folding and most likely betting themselves so it's not like we gain value out of them by betting, and we (i assume) have to fold to a raise. We basically are protecting ourselves from 6 outers when we're against overcards w out diamonds, generally outweighed by the fact that nothing better folds and very little worse calls.

On the river I can't imagine what we beat outside of AdXx KdXx... soit depends on how often we expect villain to be betting these hands whether or not we call as well as to a lesser extent how we expect him to play TT+

Calling pre is fine, as is 3 betting... the better your flop play is the more I like calling. Calling w the intention of c/fing an overpair is laughable though.
 
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Ubercroz

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I wasn't saying you should have 3bet preflop, just an alternative.

I guess my question was more what was the reason for c/c on the flop? There aren't many hands that you CAN get value from here that you beat. no smaller pp(save maybe77) is likely to barrel away or put in too much money past the flop. Overcards are also pretty unlikely to give you value so you're pretty much looking to fold some better hands.

Just seems like your hand is under represented here by the turn so there is not much FE at that point, and if a lot of money gets in the pot 99 is not too likely to be the best hand IMO.
 
cucumber_pandas

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My plan for the rest of the hand is c/f unless I hit a set.

c/c basically sets us up for being in a crappy spot for the rest of the hand. We have a marginal hand oop, lets find out where we are, most of the time he folds, some of the time he doesn't.

Sometimes when he doesn't we still hit a set.

Sometimes when we c/r he checks behind the turn.

Sometimes when we c/r the flop we get to showdown cheap.

Sometimes we're crushed on the flop and we find out more cheaply with a c/r than c/c flop, c/c turn, c/c river.

c/c seems like a worse plan tbh because now we're oop and have no idea how strong of a hand we're looking at.

So any time Im in a hand vs you and you ch/r a dry board like this i can float 100% of my range and bet turn when you check?

Check/raising over reps our hand and really the only reason we would ever be doing it here is for protection, since we are never getting called by worse and we are never folding out better. Most players at these stakes aren't going to be double and triple barreling with a large frequency so ch/call is by far the best line imo.
 
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Ubercroz

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So any time Im in a hand vs you and you ch/r a dry board like this i can float 100% of my range and bet turn when you check?

Check/raising over reps our hand and really the only reason we would ever be doing it here is for protection, since we are never getting called by worse and we are never folding out better. Most players at these stakes aren't going to be double and triple barreling with a large frequency so ch/call is by far the best line imo.

Yes,
Yes I can be bluffed off of the turn when I c/r someone and I get raised on the turn when I don't have a very strong hand.

I guess this could be a leak... but since the situation arises pretty rarely, and 99 is still not really the hand I want to put a lot of money in the middle with, I feel pretty good taking it down on the flop or letting it go if someone shows continued aggression.

Since, like you said, all the weaker hands are folding and all the better hands are calling we can determine where we are on the flop rather than calling another larger bet on the turn, since that bet will be bigger than our c/r would have been. (until we have reason to suspect otherwise- similar to folding the turn after my flop c/r is floated and then there's a bet)

And, since people at this stake are apparently not double barreling or triple barreling very often, it may still get us to showdown cheaper as it will deter further action from people who are already shy of betting.

BTW: I hate calling, I'll call but I still hate to do it when I could fold or raise since those are often better options than a call- not always a better option (yeah yeah wa/wb) but I still hate to call.
 
cucumber_pandas

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Since, like you said, all the weaker hands are folding and all the better hands are calling we can determine where we are on the flop rather than calling another larger bet on the turn, since that bet will be bigger than our c/r would have been. (until we have reason to suspect otherwise- similar to folding the turn after my flop c/r is floated and then there's a bet)

Raising "for information" or "to see where u are at" are not valid reasons to raise imo. You should be raising for 2 reasons, either for value or as a bluff. This is clearly not for value since nothing worse calls and clearly not a bluff since nothing better folds. Why do you want to fold out all the hands that we have beat? We want villain to put more bets in with worse hands and we want to put as little money in as possible when we have the worst hand. Yea, ch/calling puts us in a trickier spot on the turn, but just because it makes the hand trickier to play doesn't mean that its not the best way to play it.
 
blueskies

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I would check raise the flop myself. If you just keep check calling, you run into just this situation and still not knowing what the villain has.

If I ch/ca ch/ca up until the river. I would lead out with a bet on the river. If I get reraised, I fold. And I lose less than if I call a raise from a hand that beats me. A lot of times, he will just call if you show some strength. AK/AQ would probably not be reraising there. By showing weakness 3 times, villain thinks he can bet you off the hand.
 
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My problem with c/c, c/c, c/f line is that you're never sure whats going on, you're building a bigger pot and you're out of position.

I know we shouldn't bet unless we are doing it for value or as a bluff. However I really don't like the situation. Here I am with a hand that may be best, but I don't have a "big" hand. So if I call a 4.50 bet on the flop the pot is now like 15.00, I call a 10.00 bet on the turn the pot is 35.00 and I have a hand I can't call another bet with- unless I have some reason to believe he is bluffing.

So here we are at the river or the turn with no more information than we had on the flop not wanting to show any aggression because we don't want worse hands to not showdown with us.

I get what you're saying- we fold all those hands that we could get value from, but these are the same hands that are not too likely to put another cent in the pot because they want a cheap showdown.

So when we c/r some of these hands may still call and check it down with us to go to showdown!

I like to keep my poker simple, and c/c, c/c, c/f is not simple it makes me ask a lot of questions and put a lot more money in the pot when I really don't want to very badly.

Maybe its not the "best" line, but when I lose less, feel more confident in my play, and have more complete information about my opponent then I make fewer mistakes.

And that is my biggest concern when we c/c, we allow ourselves to make more mistakes and prevent our opponents from making as many.

A side benefit is if they call and we showdown and they beat me I may get more value when I checkraise my big hands on a dry board.
 
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BenLZ

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My problem with c/c, c/c, c/f line is that you're never sure whats going on, you're building a bigger pot and you're out of position.


This line kicked me in the ass today. I know we see it a lot, but it really gives a lot of power to the opponent. IMO, there's nothing wrong with donk betting - I just never do it. The whole idea of the c/c c/c c/f line is that we're letting the aggressors continue with that initiative, and we all know the importance of aggression in poker.

I was in an extremely similar situation today - heres what happened. This was the last straw that put me on tilt earlier:

Anyway, there had been a few limpers in a full ring game and I decide to limp with 99 in hopes of hitting a set. I was in MP and someone in late positon raised everyone else folds and I call. Flop comes something like 2 3 6 and I check it to him, he makes a weak continuation bet and I call. Turn comes Q and I check, he makes a small bet - now I don't know where I'm at. River comes an A and I check fold.

I'm definitely check raising this flop the next time I'm in a situation like this. If he raises I'm in a tough spot, but at least I'm going to know that he's representing something big and I won't just be c/c blindly. Donking might even be an option here - I know it's not considered "legitimate" poker but there's really nothing wrong with it.
 
F Paulsson

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I'm goin to go against the current and say that I like every street. I don't donk every time in these circumstances, but it happens. If I had to guess, probably about a third of the time.

I disagree that the turn donk fails to accomplish anything. Few hands in villain's range have less than five outs, and the majority of them WILL check back the turn and take a free card. Versus specifically AdX or KdX it's possible that he'd bet those hands when checked to. That doesn't make check/calling better; it makes it equally good. The only way for donking to make less money versus those hands than check/calling is if he'd either

a) bet bigger than we do, or
b) he's more likely to raise those hands (and we plan on folding to a raise) than he is to check them back (this is not the whole truth, but I don't have time to do the exact math on it right now; point still stands, even if it's not exact).

I think the number of opponents who check back a flushdraw + overs on the turn outnumber those that will cbet flop and raise a turn donk with the same hand.

And that doesn't take into account some other hands that will call turn. Some of the time, 22. Almost certainly 33 and always 77 and 88. They don't outnumber TT-AA, but we're going to lose as much versus that part of his range anyway.

As for the river, I probably call here, but that's a function of my opponents' willingness to bluff the river. The "problem" with his river bet is that it's representing a very narrow range unless he's an exceptional hand reader. Few players are good enough to valuebet a hand like AdJx when checked to on the river. So given that his value range is probably very slim, I think you can call and expect him to show down hands like 33 or Ad8s often enough to make up for the times that he was flatting the turn with a full house or that he has AA, etc.
 
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This is an interesting hand.

I guess my only real questions is how wide does he steal, and more importantly, how is your opponent adjusting to you and your stats in the big blind?

If your range in narrow out of the BB then when you c/c, donk the turn, you have to wonder what your opponent thinks your range is mostly made of when it gets to the river.
 
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