$100 NLHE 6-max: Correct board for bluffs?

[gustav197poker]

In this case I am facing a villain who has a wider range. For security reasons I cannot provide specific HUD details. Against a nit player, this play is 100% losing.
Thank you for your analysis, greetings.
The hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/3qqwkrC

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Your line looks super strong on the paired board like you flopped or turned a boat or overpair and your donk river jam is only like 60% pot which makes it seem stronger. This may be above my pay grade but if V is as wide as you say he has some missed draws and Ace high and middle pairs that probably cant stand this heat. It would be really sick if he had TT or JJ here. I would never have thought to check / min raise turn, still getting my head around that. I guess you had already decided to jam non club rivers when you raised turn? I think the much easier route if he is wide is to just 4 bet pre and barrel with the initiative and an uncapped range though. Beast of a hand, nice take down.

 

[gustav197poker]

Your line looks super strong on the paired board like you flopped or turned a boat or overpair and your donk river jam is only like 60% pot which makes it seem stronger. This may be above my pay grade but if V is as wide as you say he has some missed draws and Ace high and middle pairs that probably cant stand this heat. It would be really sick if he had TT or JJ here. I would never have thought to check / min raise turn, still getting my head around that. I guess you had already decided to jam non club rivers when you raised turn? I think the much easier route if he is wide is to just 4 bet pre and barrel with the initiative and an uncapped range though. Beast of a hand, nice take down.

Exactly, but the villain was not very wide in his range. Perhaps reasonably wide, considering that the duel was co / btn. I agree that JJ / TT could be too much for this case. I was honestly not happy to have the Ah, I would have preferred the A of spades, to increase the fold equity of rank v. But at least it blocked AA and KK. Thxs friend!

 

[fundiver199]

I would have 4-bet pre, and I am not in love with the postflop line. I think, you probably had the best hand, and he folded a busted draw on the river. Dont see him giving up with for instance TT or JJ with so little left behind.

 

[Aballinamion]

Line: Naked Check-Raise OTT OOP/Flatting 3-bet Pot

In this case I am facing a villain who has a wider range. For security reasons I cannot provide specific HUD details. Against a nit player, this play is 100% losing.
Thank you for your analysis, greetings.
The hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/3qqwkrC

Hello there dear mate, thank you very much for sharing with us!

A question: when you say Villain has a wider range, you mean preflop, flop, turn and river?
I mean, is it very aggressive preflop and postflop? Thanks!

The Preflop

Well, if Villain is aggressive as you said we must make one ponderation before anything: both are slightly deep stacked. Villain 3-bets to 3.3x, which is a little salty and polarized, but we expect so many bluffs here that a 4-bet should be almost mandatory.
Considering this is a 3-bet range BTN vs CO, of a possible aggro-donkey, and we are out of position, I see no reason to be calling with AK, having information that it will be horrible to play this hand out of position versus a guy who fires flop/turn and river, no matter what it has (possible).
In situations like this we are 4-betting 90% of times and calling 10%, IMO.


the postflop

The Flop

This dry flop is not very good for anyone. We don't expect many A7 and A3 on Villain's range, but given the fact we elected to flat preflop, BTN has position and can bet almost its entire 3-bet range here, for 1/3 pot.
This is not the happiest call of our lives and we must have a plan ASAP for the times we miss the turn, and we are going to miss a ton of turns of what are we going to do:
are we going to continue/floating to bluff OTR? Are we going to check-raise turn to represent...X, Y, what are we going to do after calling, and the question goes even beyong, depending how fishy this Villain is, how likely is it going to be folding to a check-raise turn, once you flatted preflop, how likely fishy is going to be folding to a river push?
Can we really bluff this type of player?

The Turn

Here, I see no reason to be bluffing. This 9h doesn't change anything for us, we have our range capped for medium-weak hands, and Villain/BTN makes a fair sizing of almost 100% pot.
Of course BTN could be bluffing its flush draws of clubs and hearts, specially some 8cTc that it decided to 3-bet light, whatever, I don't see AKo as a good bluff here, because we are only bluffing the BDFs of hearts, on which Villain will present less on its range, specially because we own the blocker of the nut flush.
Another point to consider is that, given the fact this turn continues very dry, we don't see many bluffs on Villain's range plus the texture of the board (double paired 3's), it is not the best in the world, because now, CO can have flatted 3-bet preflop with 33, 77, 99, and BTN will have less combos than us.
So, how could fishy to be bluffing? Does fishy have any ideia about bluffing?
If Fishy has a marginal hand such as 7x, 9x, do we believe a raise OTT can make the fish to fold?

The River

Well, this adversary is really very, very weak, because hands that could be paying your check-raise OTT could be easily jamming right off the bat since the pot was already very interesting (JJ+ for example).
Besides, we don't bluff OTT by calling, because we are simply representing nothing (Villain's shoes). So, given the fact Villain commited this blunder, we are donk shoving 100% of rivers, because even if BTN had the full-houses on its range it would be impossible to CO to be folding to a push as well.
Thank God there is these kind of players at 100 NLHE, making non-sense postflop moves and folding leaving only 40 blinds behind, in a situation where CO could be easily be donk shoving the missed draws of spades and missed draws of hearts.
Overall, you overplayed AKo a little versus a guy that, by your own description, seems to overcalll.


Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[gustav197poker]

Hello there dear mate, thank you very much for sharing with us!

A question: when you say Villain has a wider range, you mean preflop, flop, turn and river?
I mean, is it very aggressive preflop and postflop? Thanks!

The Preflop

Well, if Villain is aggressive as you said we must make one ponderation before anything: both are slightly deep stacked. Villain 3-bets to 3.3x, which is a little salty and polarized, but we expect so many bluffs here that a 4-bet should be almost mandatory.
Considering this is a 3-bet range BTN vs CO, of a possible aggro-donkey, and we are out of position, I see no reason to be calling with AK, having information that it will be horrible to play this hand out of position versus a guy who fires flop/turn and river, no matter what it has (possible).
In situations like this we are 4-betting 90% of times and calling 10%, IMO.


the postflop

The Flop

This dry flop is not very good for anyone. We don't expect many A7 and A3 on Villain's range, but given the fact we elected to flat preflop, BTN has position and can bet almost its entire 3-bet range here, for 1/3 pot.
This is not the happiest call of our lives and we must have a plan ASAP for the times we miss the turn, and we are going to miss a ton of turns of what are we going to do:
are we going to continue/floating to bluff OTR? Are we going to check-raise turn to represent...X, Y, what are we going to do after calling, and the question goes even beyong, depending how fishy this Villain is, how likely is it going to be folding to a check-raise turn, once you flatted preflop, how likely fishy is going to be folding to a river push?
Can we really bluff this type of player?

The Turn

Here, I see no reason to be bluffing. This 9h doesn't change anything for us, we have our range capped for medium-weak hands, and Villain/BTN makes a fair sizing of almost 100% pot.
Of course BTN could be bluffing its flush draws of clubs and hearts, specially some 8cTc that it decided to 3-bet light, whatever, I don't see AKo as a good bluff here, because we are only bluffing the BDFs of hearts, on which Villain will present less on its range, specially because we own the blocker of the nut flush.
Another point to consider is that, given the fact this turn continues very dry, we don't see many bluffs on Villain's range plus the texture of the board (double paired 3's), it is not the best in the world, because now, CO can have flatted 3-bet preflop with 33, 77, 99, and BTN will have less combos than us.
So, how could fishy to be bluffing? Does fishy have any ideia about bluffing?
If Fishy has a marginal hand such as 7x, 9x, do we believe a raise OTT can make the fish to fold?

The River

Well, this adversary is really very, very weak, because hands that could be paying your check-raise OTT could be easily jamming right off the bat since the pot was already very interesting (JJ+ for example).
Besides, we don't bluff OTT by calling, because we are simply representing nothing (Villain's shoes). So, given the fact Villain commited this blunder, we are donk shoving 100% of rivers, because even if BTN had the full-houses on its range it would be impossible to CO to be folding to a push as well.
Thank God there is these kind of players at 100 NLHE, making non-sense postflop moves and folding leaving only 40 blinds behind, in a situation where CO could be easily be donk shoving the missed draws of spades and missed draws of hearts.
Overall, you overplayed AKo a little versus a guy that, by your own description, seems to overcalll.


Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Hello Carlos, thanks for your analysis. We believe that this villain can fold his half partners like TT and JJ. The idea was to charge a higher price for the draws of villain and push with the top of the range. By flattening in preflop, we are making lower quality hands continue in range v. I could have increased in pre, but I think they would only call me strong hands. I think that in this way, the rate of return would be lower in the long term, at least that's what I think about this rival. BTN has few pure bluffs on the turn and we may be looking for fold equity at the time. Since we did not succeed, we had to follow the line of attack. So in my opinion on the river, hero can only have AA KK or boats. I also think that the Q on the river favors the hero range and hurts the RV, because QQ combos are now halved. Greetings and good day friend.

 

[Aballinamion]

Hello Carlos, thanks for your analysis. We believe that this villain can fold his half partners like TT and JJ. The idea was to charge a higher price for the draws of villain and push with the top of the range. By flattening in preflop, we are making lower quality hands continue in range v. I could have increased in pre, but I think they would only call me strong hands. I think that in this way, the rate of return would be lower in the long term, at least that's what I think about this rival. BTN has few pure bluffs on the turn and we may be looking for fold equity at the time. Since we did not succeed, we had to follow the line of attack. So in my opinion on the river, hero can only have AA KK or boats. I also think that the Q on the river favors the hero range and hurts the RV, because QQ combos are now halved. Greetings and good day friend.

Thanks mate, my computer is dying and I am using my daughter's pc to make notes.
Well, thanks for the input and it is very reasonable your reasons for flatting preflop instead of 4-betting.
The conclusion is that this Villains is very fishy and recreational because if it really had JJ+, it should never be folding to your river push.
OTT you declare war by saying that either you are holding the nuts with a boat or a bluff with the missed draws of hearts and clubs. The only problem is that you don't really have any missed flush draw to complete OTR, and when it comes an Ace and King it will be harder to extract of non-sense ranges.
So, considering the fact that now we are on Villain's shoes, and CO check-raises OTT a pretty fair sizing where it can have a lot of bluffs, we are either jamming our JJ+, because it has a lot of potential and value in situations where BTN 3-bets vs CC CO, and it would be ahead an ammount of times that compensates for the times CO has indeed a flush draw and calls and hit OTR and for the times CO has already a boat, because we are going to hit our cooler/boat in a very low frequency, but we will hit JJ+ in some rivers and cooler our adversary.
For God's sake put a note on this guy for it should not be playing 100 NLHE, it should be playing 2 NLHE.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa