Originally Posted by rlzaleski
I'm probably wrong being the donk I am, but I really think the mistake was not betting into him on the flop. For me that's how I find out where he is. Only time I would not is if I wanted to draw or induce a bluff back at me. I think he either has an Ace or two pair and thinks he has best. That or he thinks you are weak and he can bully you off.
Why not bet into him on the flop and win? If you think you are super ahead then I call with two pair on the river. But generally I try to decide on the flop what I think is going on, or make a plan to figure hi out.
AJ or trips would be a cooler in my opinion. But I think trips would be likely to reraise a bet into the flop which is half the reason I like betting into people. You get trapped sometimes, but I think the fold equity protection is worth it, and when you get reraised you decide what to do based on the player. (I realize that doesn't help here, so I generally assume they are a good player until proven otherwise). Occasionally the idiot has a big pocket pair, but more often than not they are getting their giggles on with that river shove.
Betting for protection is not a valid reason to bet. We either strictly bet for value or as a bluff. Checking second pairs to the board is pretty standard, especially readless. We are either way ahead or way behind here. We also check to induce bluffs. We NEVER bet to "find where we stand." That's a very big mistake that many beginning players make. You are spewing money by doing this.
There is no way villain thinks we are weak in this hand unless he has no ability to hand read or is a complete maniac. We check called the flop and the turn, and led out on the river. This is actually a very typical line for a strong hand, typically two pair. Most villains don't want us to check behind our marginal holdings (TPDK, 2nd pairs, etc) and so lead out on the river. An overbet shove on the river is 99% the nuts, especially at micro/low stakes. Especially when they overbet shove over us a bet/raise OTR.
If we bet and he calls, it puts us in a tough spot. He could have floated with A high, a gutshot, an OESD, and bluff on the turn, representing the Jack. By betting the flop, we don't really accomplish anything. He calls with any Jack, 1010, and sets, which crush us. And we can easily get floated by his junk and get bluffed off our hand. By betting, we are essentially turning our hand into a bluff. We should use our hand here as a bluff-catcher.
I'd rather bet the flop with bottom pair instead, as we have 5 outs to a two pair or trips, and because we simply cannot profitably just check-call bottom pair OOP. And when you do hit your trips or two pair after betting your bottom pair, it is generally very well-disguised and easy to get paid off on. Check-calling 2nd pair to the board is, on the other hand, generally profitably if we can hand read well and bluff-catch.
And once you check-call the flop, you represent no bluffs but rather a made hand. It could also scare your opponent, thinking that you might be trapping. Many villains will just give up after the flop once you call them. Depending on board textures, we should check-call two barrels and fold to a third barrel unless we have a sick read.