$100 NLHE 6-max: Bluffing cures cancer according to FDA, so I Baluga the turn.

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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$100 NL HE 6-max: Bluffing cures cancer according to FDA, so I Baluga the turn.

I decide to flat out of the blinds cuz I'm crazy like that. I guess I normally 3-bet pre, but I wasn't in the mood this session & I usually 3-bet him like its my job cuz he folds a lot.

Villain is a big fat reg over like 650 hands, who is break even over 26K hands on table ratings.

Stats: 22/18/45%(9.4)
Steal = 37%
C-bet = 75%
Turn C-bet = 33%

Notes:
C9's Notes on Villain said:
4-bet shoved AK on him, he snap called with JJ. Snap called a 4-bet shove with AQs on the button when I shoved in the CO. I had KK.

Who here likes the Baluga? Who here likes a different line? I'm not convinced I like a check/raise, and I've been considering alternate lines.

Ultimate Bet, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

UTG: $202.50 (202.5 bb)
MP: $129.25 (129.3 bb)
CO: $71.60 (71.6 bb)
BTN: $91.50 (91.5 bb)
SB: $248.70 (248.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $133.55 (133.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 7 A
3 folds, BTN raises to $3.50, SB folds, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 10 9 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $14, Hero raises to $125.05 and is all-in, Villain has $69 behind.
 
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Pepsi

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I like the Baluga:) . I think there is a good chance he folded. Even if he didn't and you missed your draws on the river is still an awesome move and most definitely will earn you interest in the future.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I kind of like it, if you don't overdo it. I don't think you can take that line all the time with such hands because it would unbalance your range and make it too weak overall, but doing it from time to time is nice and certainly profitable unless he's able to soul-read you and call with JT here.

Do you take the same line with QJ and AK ?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Do you take the same line with QJ and AK ?
Who cares? Balance is totally LOL. I overbet shove AK preflop one hand, and the very next had I overbet shove preflop he calls me with AQs. This guy is a multi-tabling reg on auto-pilot. Balance is totally lost on this guy (and 99.9999% of players you'll ever play against).

So the real trick here is that we have to choose a line that can fold top pair. We don't want to look like a draw, because then they fold less. We want to pick a line that maximizes fold equity, because just about everything has good equity against us. Also, our draw has very little implied odds, as we are out of position an hearts & 8's are going to be very obvious.

There were only really 3 lines I considered: This one, check/raising the flop, and bet/3-betting the flop.

I just figured "Okay, I want to fold 1 pair hands" so I decided to check/raise the turn since maybe he's heard of the theorem & will fold some of his one pair hands.

But he's also especially aggressive, so I think I may like bet/3-betting a little bit more. His AF is 9.4, and the board is especially wet, so he's likely to raise most of his range that he continues with if I donk into him. However, he also may just straight up fold to my lead when I could get a c-bet out of him check/something'ing.

I'm not sure which line is best. He c-bets & double barrels a lot so that leads me to like this line, and he probably expects me to check/raise some draws. So I'm not totally sure which line I like best, and I thought there might be some good discussion in here somewhere.


So what's the better way to earn sklansky bucks out of say AT/KQ/66/98 (which is a decent representative sample of his range) in this case?
 
zachvac

zachvac

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ok so I already talked to you but I think I like bet/3-betting flop or bet flop C/R turn if he just calls flop. I also think C/R flop is fine. The problem here if he's competent is not balance but hand-reading. He has his HUD up that tells him you're aggro and you did not raise a very very drawy flop. Whether you actually do it with a set is irrelevant. Most people don't, especially when they're as aggro as you are. So he won't think you'll have a set here. Pretty sure anyone competent doesn't fold a K. You may fold out like Tx but against someone intelligent raising the drawy flop has more FE than flatting a drawy flop and raising a blank turn imo.
 
blankoblanco

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once you get to the turn this way, c/r-ing is probably the most +EV line against a player who even remotely knows how to b/f. yeah, as zach said, it's really hard for you to have a set (or straight) here since you'd like always c/r flop, but he doesn't have to know that, always some sort of possibility in his mind that you wouldn't. he can put you on KT or K9 (whether or not you'd really defend those pre, it's still probably conceivable to him). of course there's the QJ which he certainly can think you could flat flop with

it's just way better than check/calling or check/folding if you have any reasonable amount of FE at all. since it's a reasonable card for him to barrel, logic says you do have that FE. problem with leading turn is that getting raised suuuuuuuucks. stacks just set up so well to raise all-in so i'd way rather be the one who gets to do it, and with a hand that has decent equity when called

there are of course all sorts of alternate flop lines like b/3b and c/r. this flop is one of those spots where you can actually get it in vs. some draws that you're crushing, so i think i lean towards something that gets chips in the pot, but i don't mind this
 
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