$100 NLHE 6-max: AK 4bet vs All In from BB - call/fold?

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blindsfisher

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BTN: $252.89
SB: $100.00
BB: $114.62
UTG: $108.10
Hero (MP): $144.18
CO: $243.72

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with A K
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, BB raises to $10.50, Hero raises to $32, BB raises to $114.62 all in, ...
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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When you 4-bet AK 100 big blinds deep, you're committing to calling a shove. If you think you couldn't call his 5-bet shove, you would call or fold to his 3-bet.

So as played with no reads, you call.
 
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blindsfisher

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That's what I do usually. brought me big pots and also big losses.

So far I would say that AK all in pre flop is gambling.

After playing 2 hours poker and working up 100-150 BBs, one of these funny pre flop All Ins destroy everything and sometimes leaving me with a big loss.

In this example I lost against QQ.
 
TimovieMan

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Break it down per decision: you open-raised 3bb for value.

When he 3-bets, assuming his range is something like 99+/ATs+/AJo+/KQs/KQo, you 4-bet for value with 57% equity.

When he 5-bet-shoves, you're calling as a 38.8% dog vs. QQ+/AK.
But you're calling 82.62$ to win a 229.74$ pot (let's make it 225 after rake), so you only need about 36%-36.7% equity for the call to be correct. We have 38.8%.
It's thin, but it's profitable.

+EV is +EV, even if it feels like gambling.
 
TimovieMan

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That means I only win 1 of 3 Calls?
Closer to 4 out of 10, but yes.
But it's still a profitable call, that was my point.


If we roll a die, and I promise to give you 6$ if you roll a 6, and you give me 1$ if you roll something else, then you absolutely have to take that bet.
After 60 rolls you'd have won 10$ (50x -1$ / 10x +6$).

Poker is a long-run game. You can lose significantly on a bet like this in the short run, but the more you make that same bet, the more you win.
 
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blindsfisher

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Closer to 4 out of 10, but yes.
But it's still a profitable call, that was my point...

It was a 36% call yes, but I lose one buy in (100BB) every 6 out of 10, while I only win 4 buy ins out of 10.

Makes -200BB after 10 of these situation. Where is my +EV?
 
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TimovieMan

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It was a 36% call yes, but I lose one buy in (100BB) every 6 out of 10, while I only win 4 buy ins out of 10.

Makes -200BB after 10 of these situation. Where is my +EV?
Your equity only dropped to 38% when he 5-bet you.

For all bets before that, his range was wider, and your equity was a lot higher. So you can only count your decision at the 5-bet, so AFTER you've invested 32$ and the pot had grown to 147.12$.


Each individual decision you make stands on its own. Money you put into the pot previously in the same hand no longer counts for the decision you're making now.

The way you're interpreting it here, is that he would have QQ+/AK every time you open-raise AK for 3bb. That's just not the case.

You're not calling 100BB to win 200BB, you're calling 82.62$ to win 229.74$.
 
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B

blindsfisher

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The way you're interpreting it here, is that he would have QQ+/AK every time you open-raise AK for 3bb. That's just not the case.

No, the way interpret it is, that he would have QQ+/AK every time he answers with an All In on my 3 bet/4bet.
 
TimovieMan

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No, the way interpret it is, that he would have QQ+/AK every time he answers with an All In on my 3 bet/4bet.
Yes. So that's why you have to look at the equity you have AFTER he shoves, and make your decision on the amount left to call vs the size of the pot already made.

All the money you invested before this decision is gone. It basically turned into EV on a previous decision.
 
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blindsfisher

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Yes. So that's why you have to look at the equity you have AFTER he shoves, ...

After he shoves I should think about which hands would do that. And I expect QQ/KK/AA to do so. Hands that dominate me and that I can only beat by hitting my set or a lucky flush.

To flop a set is 1:8, to have it by the river a bit better. But I'm behind most of the times against QQ\KK\AA. Or not?
 
TimovieMan

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We're assuming his range is QQ+/AK. We have 50% equity vs AK and 46% vs QQ. We're big dogs vs KK+. Overall, we have 38.8% equity.

If you don't think he has AK here ever, then this is a fold.

That's basically the decision that's being made here.
 
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We're assuming his range is QQ+/AK. We have 50% equity vs AK and 46% vs QQ. We're big dogs vs KK+. Overall, we have 38.8% equity.

If you don't think he has AK here ever, then this is a fold.

That's basically the decision that's being made here.

In addition to this we also have to think about what villain will 4bet bluff with. We can't always assume that villain has QQ+\AK when they 4 bet or we are highly exploitable.
 
TimovieMan

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In addition to this we also have to think about what villain will 4bet bluff with. We can't always assume that villain has QQ+\AK when they 4 bet or we are highly exploitable.
It's a 5-bet shove. That's not as likely to be a bluff, is it?
Anyway, you're right, it's NL100, not NL2/5/10. Most 4-bet bluffing hands are Ax (since they have an A blocker). With every Ax combination he 5-bet shoves our equity will skyrocket, since we dominate those combos.
 
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Sneaky Feet

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It's a 5-bet shove. That's not as likely to be a bluff, is it?

Sorry my bad. I read the hand too quickly so my positions are reversed. But yes it could be a bluff by all means. I've been know to 5bet shove a bluff on occasion w/A blockers : )
 
John A

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Break it down per decision: you open-raised 3bb for value.

When he 3-bets, assuming his range is something like 99+/ATs+/AJo+/KQs/KQo, you 4-bet for value with 57% equity.

When he 5-bet-shoves, you're calling as a 38.8% dog vs. QQ+/AK.
But you're calling 82.62$ to win a 229.74$ pot (let's make it 225 after rake), so you only need about 36%-36.7% equity for the call to be correct. We have 38.8%.
It's thin, but it's profitable.

+EV is +EV, even if it feels like gambling.

Your math is a little off here, he only needs ~ 27%, but none the less, it's a call. It's just a much higher +EV call.

OP, just so you know, every reg in a 100nl game is going to know this stuff like the back of their hands. So if you're still struggling w/ this you might want to consider stepping down or studying up a little so you're not at a disadvantage (not saying this to be mean by any means). Maybe just grab some common spots and punch them into an equity calculator and work out some of these so you know them when you run into them again. You def. need to know this in these games.
 
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Your math is a little off here, he only needs ~ 27%, but none the less, it's a call. It's just a much higher +EV call.

Can you please explain this? I did the calculation myself and got the same answer as Tim.

Let's say we ignore the SB as that's probably raked anyway. Now you're calling $82.62 to win a total pot of $229.24 (that's what the pot will be after we call, inclusive of our money, not what the pot currently is). Therefore, we can directly convert this to a fraction.

82.62 is 36% of 229.24. Thus the breakeven point is 36% equity.

Yes. So that's why you have to look at the equity you have AFTER he shoves, and make your decision on the amount left to call vs the size of the pot already made.

All the money you invested before this decision is gone. It basically turned into EV on a previous decision.

This is exactly right. In economics, we call this a "sunk cost". When you're trying to make a future decision, you need to ignore the sunk costs and focus solely on the marginal benefit vs the marginal cost. In this case, the $32 has already been "sunk" and our marginal benefit is a chance to win a pot of $229.24 for a marginal cost of $82.62.
 
TimovieMan

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Can you please explain this? I did the calculation myself and got the same answer as Tim.
I get it.
We need to add our 82$ investment to the pot size again to get the correct % conversion.
If you're getting a 1:3 payout on a bet, you only need to do better than 25% to win, not 33%.
Rookie math mistake. :p

Correction: we only need 26.4%-27.3% equity. So yeah. +EV. :cool:



See, this is exactly why I try to do the calcs myself. So I can learn when mistakes are pointed out. :top:
 
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Simplex

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If you're playing AK allin preflop, you're going to lose over the long haul. Simple as that. You're behind to any pair, you are dominated sometimes, AA/KK and even when you do hit and the other hand has an under pair, they still have 20% to hit a set. Put another way, If you jam AK preflop everytime and get called by 22-AA, you'll eventually go broke.
 
TimovieMan

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If you're playing AK allin preflop, you're going to lose over the long haul. Simple as that. You're behind to any pair, you are dominated sometimes, AA/KK and even when you do hit and the other hand has an under pair, they still have 20% to hit a set. Put another way, If you jam AK preflop everytime and get called by 22-AA, you'll eventually go broke.
That's only assuming you're only getting called by pocket pairs and are never folding anything.
Shoving AK preflop will see plenty of folds preflop, taking down plenty of small pots (in fact folding most pocket pairs JJ-). If you get called (and you'll get called a lot wider than you figure), you're a 60% favourite vs any non-Ax, non-pair hand, and a 70+% favourite vs any Ax hand, plus you're only a 46% dog vs QQ-.

There is absolutely no instance where shoving AK allin preflop is going to be a losing proposition.
 
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If you are getting called by KJ, KQ, AQ, AJ, then it's prob slightly better than a break even play. Should you be getting called by these hands allin preflop, no.
I just don't care for the play anyway you slice it. And risking large amounts or your stack to pick up small pots is a losing strategy anyway, long term.
 
TimovieMan

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I just don't care for the play anyway you slice it. And risking large amounts or your stack to pick up small pots is a losing strategy anyway, long term.
Again: don't underestimate your fold equity.

And risking large amounts with AK is not a losing strategy. High-variance, sure, but not losing. For all the reasons I mentioned above.


Also: you're going to be very exploitable if you're only risking large amounts preflop with KK+. ;)
 
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Simplex

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Guess I should have qualified my response. At higher levels,$1/$2- $2/$4 and higher, you won't get enough folds on a 4 bet shove for this to be a profitable play. And the times you do get called, a 4 bet shove to try to pick up a 10BB 3bet, you'll never be ahead preflop.
At lower stakes where guys open wider ranges, more often and call off lighter, this is probably a profitable play.
 
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At higher levels,$1/$2- $2/$4 and higher, you won't get enough folds on a 4 bet shove for this to be a profitable play.

I experience this on 0.5/1 already. I'm getting called from +77 which made me think about AK pre flop.

Shoving AK pre flop will see plenty of folds pre flop, taking down plenty of small pots (in fact folding most pocket pairs JJ-).
If you're playing AK all in pre flop, you're going to lose over the long haul. Simple as that.

Folds are very interesting, but all in is not needed as it seems. Today I played 54 AK hands, 17 became action and I only escalated up to 30BBs pre flop and most of the players folded.
Some funny people called. Only one attempt of me to go all in, caused by some craziness that I cannot control yet. And yes, I folded to All In by villian.

Lost 110 BB in 6 Hands
Won 295 BB in 48 Hands

to compare, from monday to friday I played 155 AK hands

13 All In hands pre flop
3 won 280 BB
10 lost 717 BB

AK turned positive after stopping the All Ins.
 
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