$100 NLHE 6-max: AA vs river c/r

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/17/1.7 13k hands

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($150.09)
Hero (MP) ($152.21)
SB ($238.58)
Button ($100)
BB ($269.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A♦, A♠
1 fold, Hero bets $3, Button calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) J♦, 8♥, 2♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $4.60, Button calls $4.60

Turn: ($16.70) 10♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $11, Button calls $11

River: ($38.70) 8♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $26, Button raises $81.40 (All-In)

Total pot: $90.70

what´s his range on the river?

Hi Buck,

You rarely get anything but 8x or maybe 8T(s) doing this imo. Sets usually raise by now given board texture; jacks very very very rarely raise the river, even JT; if he had 9T he rarely thinks about turning it into a bluff (effectively trying to push out a Jx hand or better, REALLY doubtful)...the only bluff you're going to see here is like KQs or AK but neither are very likely given his line, and neither are very likely to bluff shove the river.

I think this is 89, 8T, maybe 97s and Q9s like always. Maybe, maybe QQ+ but I kinda doubt it.

Pretty easy fold baring a player dependent read. Most players at this level aren't creative enough to turn T9 into a bluff here and that's pretty much the extent of what we beat

I'd also prefer to check/call the river unless we have something that indicates we can get 3 streets of value out of TP from villain (possible).

I would say pretty easy fold aswell. obs. better than just a jack.

Zybomb said:

I'd also prefer to check/call the river unless we have something that indicates we can get 3 streets of value out of TP from villain (possible).

Click to expand...

Nah, I disagree. We can have tons of missed AQ/KQ/AK/9x in villain's mind and I don't think he's folding 9T/Jx very often as a result. I don't think he's value betting either nearly as often as he's calling. He can't really have any busted draws that bluff either, so I just bet.

Shouldn't the flop bet be a little bigger? like pot sized?

I think that's fine, or at most like 3/4 or 7/8 pot. I don't actually full pot it vs a reg here very often since it just reps too strong of a range, and we want to give him a chance to bluff raise us or peel light.

this really looks like a well timed bluff to me. He may have had a set of 8s, but i really think he put you on AJ and he knew that you couldn't call that river. I dont think he would just call the flop or call the turn if he thought that you didnt have a J. When he saw the 8 on the river i think he thought A8 could easily fit in my range, he cant call with a pair of jacks i'm representing more than that. i would say maybe Q10 playing with position

if hes bluffing the 8 is a great card for him to do it on however he probably had the 8 or even a straight

It's not a bluff nearly often enough to make calling correct. I like bet / folding the river.

I would put him on JT and that he was slow playing it when he hit 2pr, but that's just me. Either JT or a bluff and I would definitely not fold. I'm no expert by any means but I would say that the chances of him having JT or AJ or a complete bluff is better than him having an 8 or an inside strait draw on the flop.

Cry fold...imo u should have c/c the turn.