$100 NLHE 6-max: AA oop against turn shove

slycbnew

slycbnew

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$100 NL HE 6-max: AA oop against turn shove

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/10/4

CO is a talkative fish over only 19 hands. His stack has floated between $30 and $80 since I've been at the table - won w a runner runner 2 pr hand (trash hand pf, like 93o) and w a set, lost w a straight against a flush - complained alot about the flush (which was runner/runner ldo), berated the other player for calling the river on the 2 pr hand.

How often is the turn shove from this guy better than AA?

poker stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

CO: $56.65 (56.7 bb)
BTN: $30.70 (30.7 bb)
Hero (SB): $107.80 (107.8 bb)
BB: $124.30 (124.3 bb)
MP: $103.20 (103.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with Ac Ah
MP folds, CO calls $1, BTN folds, Hero raises to $5, BB folds, CO calls $4

Flop: ($11) Qd 6d 8h (2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO calls $7

Turn: ($25) 9h (2 players)
Hero bets $18, CO raises to $44.65 and is all-in
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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You only need ~25% equity to make the call here, and I think you have that. He's going to show up with a set pretty often and a straight about as often but he's also going to show up with stuff like KQ and AQ (and maybe some semibluffs) often enough for you to pull through with 25% equity. I can't find a fold. Especially if you think you can discounts sets somewhat since he just called on a fairly wet flop.

Going back to the flop, I think you can make your flop bet bigger. I have some things to say about why that is but I think that's better saved for a post of its own; it's sort of a long argument.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Going back to the flop, I think you can make your flop bet bigger. I have some things to say about why that is but I think that's better saved for a post of its own; it's sort of a long argument.

Looking forward to it! I rarely change my flop cbet size (around 2/3) unless I'm playing a 3bet pot, and I'm sure I'm screwing myself by not taking context into consideration.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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It'll be a little while before that post goes up, though. I'm at work right now and I'm not 100% sure I can get it done tonight, either. But I'll get to it soon enough.
 
Sysvr4

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Without reading replies, my first thought: Bet the pot on the flop. Draw heavy board like this, and no obvious two pairs, you're ahead so much here that you want to really put the pressure on an opponent to make an out-of-odds call here.

I think I'm folding to that raise. You don't have much of a read on the guy over 19 hands, but you said "fish" and fish to me implies "passive". There's still no obvious two pairs, so I'm losing some of the equity gained through pairing other board cards to catch up to two pair, and there are plenty of reasonable set and straight possibilities.

I suspect if you played this hand the same way every time from now until your dying day, there probably wouldn't be a hair's width of difference in folding or calling. But I lean towards a fold.
 
Tonky666

Tonky666

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think he has kk or AK dimonds or maybe even q8 or qq or 88..
i'd call ,but i'd also fold,i dono !!!
 
ljove

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Maybe it is better to fold this time.There is lot of money to lose if he got a straight two pair or set.Problem is that you are don't holding nuts this time just an overpair.There are lots og players who are using draws on the board.He knows that you are holding AA,AQ,KK,66,88 bot there is a straight draw on the board and he is pushing.I don' think that he got hearts in his hand.He maybe got a straight and QQ or KK are an option.It is up to you.I don't play that limits but few days ago I lost KK against opponent who got TT and has hit a set.
 
S93

S93

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Call.
Your behind to alot to stuff like 89,96, sets,JT but like FP said u only need 25% equity and villain is most likly gonna do this with stuff like AQ,KQ,QJ and combo draws that picked up something on the turn(97,87,76 ect)
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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We only have to pay $27 for $88, I agree this is a call.

I'm fascinated by half stacked fish lately, simply cuz their turn shoving range seems so wide to me (that's why I posted this). I'm seeing a lot of TPMK and second pair hands being shoved by these guys on the turn (in this specific case, less than that), not just the monsters you'd expect to see from a shove.

Am I just getting lucky or is that common?

Also looking forward to more discussion of the cbet sizing...
 
kadafi

kadafi

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Call.
Your behind to alot to stuff like 89,96, sets,JT but like FP said u only need 25% equity and villain is most likly gonna do this with stuff like AQ,KQ,QJ and combo draws that picked up something on the turn(97,87,76 ect)

Exactly..3 to 1 is too good to fold here when his shoving range includes the above.
 
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TimmyOtool

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I'd call off the remaining $26.

I'm expecting some garbage 2-pair in which case you got 8 outs against. Probably Q-9 or 9-8 and some straight or flush draw + pairs.
 
trashcan

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Yeah as suggested you dont need not that big of a equity to call here. Plus turn puts 2nd flush draw out there and some pair and str8 draw combos. So yeah call without being thrilled
 
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mrjohnson911

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call.
partly because you re ahead of a lot of hands, if you re behind you got outs and getting more than 3 to 1...
also you might get a lot of valuable information about your opponent
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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It now seems I won't have time to write the long strategy post even sometime this week, so I'll just give some cliffnotes here (and we can discuss this more when I make the complete write-up):

Players don't treat their range as continuous. I call it "chunking." What it comes down to is that their calling range is essentially unaffected within certain bet size intervals. In order for $7 to be a better size than $10 on this flop, it has to be true that his range is a lot wider when we bet the smaller amount. I don't think his range for calling $7 vs. $10 changes hardly at all, and certainly not enough to make the $10 bet worse.

The reason for that has to do with the texture; there are few weak hands with which he might consider peeling for a small bet but will fold to a bigger bet. This is actually true most of the time on flops, which is why I think that, in general, a lot of people would win quite a bit more if they just bet more on the flop for value. For similar reasons, there's no reason to bet $10 when you're bluffing since his calling range is the same as it is for $7, but you get a better price for it.

Obviously, this is exploitable, if you come across an opponent observant enough to notice your different bet sizes on the flop with different hands. If you're worried about this, ask yourself if you consider yourself an observant opponent. Next, ask yourself how often you take notes on your opponent's flop c-betsizes.

HUDs show your flop betting frequencies, not your sizes. Once you start playing a lot, lot, lot with good regulars, I think playing an exploitable but profitable strategy of "bet slightly bigger for value, slightly less for bluffs" is greatly +EV.
 
shootwillus

shootwillus

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...hmm, F. Paulson, I really like this analysis/approach. Looking over the hand my gut screams "bet more on the flop". But, i ccouldnt articulate a reason other than "he's a fish, value bet him early, often, and hard". I like your above reasoning...eloquent.

As the hand was played, I call and fell good about it a lot. I think you see a lot of crap show up here...everything from total air to KK to sets.
 
Z

Zybomb

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Easy call. with opponents stack he is shoving any drawing hand he wants to continue with
 
BelgoSuisse

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We only have to pay $27 for $88, I agree this is a call.

I'm fascinated by half stacked fish lately, simply cuz their turn shoving range seems so wide to me (that's why I posted this). I'm seeing a lot of TPMK and second pair hands being shoved by these guys on the turn (in this specific case, less than that), not just the monsters you'd expect to see from a shove.

Am I just getting lucky or is that common?

In a 100bb game, 100bb stacked players are typically opening a lot of speculative hands and usually barreling decent draws because that's +ev with the combination of
  1. equity from your outs
  2. fold equity
  3. implied odds when you hit and villains pays the next bet.

So when you play 50bb deep in those games and face players with that strategy, your stack size allows you to cancel out points 2 and 3 when you stack TPMK.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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HUDs show your flop betting frequencies, not your sizes. Once you start playing a lot, lot, lot with good regulars, I think playing an exploitable but profitable strategy of "bet slightly bigger for value, slightly less for bluffs" is greatly +EV.

Been working this into my play over the last several days. I'm guilty of not tracking bet sizing, and apparently everyone else I'm playing against are as well... :)
 
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