$100 NLHE 6-max: 99 vs a lot of preflop action

polakpoker4

polakpoker4

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$100 NL HE 6-max: 99 vs a lot of preflop action

poker stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 597446
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $104.20
UTG: $78.70
Hero (MP): $100.00
CO: $105.25
BTN: $110.50
SB: $176.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with 9 9
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, SB raises to $19, 1 fold, UTG calls $18, Hero ???,

Okay, so a little bit of background on villains. UTG is 44/0, CO is 26/11, BTN is 16/14 and SB is 21/19. Also SB has a 3bet of 12% over a large sample and I'm pretty certain he's going to be squeezing pretty light here because of so much dead money in the pot. When UTG limp/calls the 3bet, Im not too excited but I'm also not too worried about it.

I don't think calling here is a good idea but is shoving and picking up the crapload of dead money in the middle or should I just be folding here?
 
S93

S93

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I shove here. UTG is probably gonna have a small-mid PP here alot looking to set mine.
Yeah SB he is gonna have TT-AA/AK here some of the time but there is just so much dead money in there to make up for it + its awsome when we jam and SB folds but UTG calls with his 55 type hand feeling commited.
 
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bubonicplay

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Just treat UTG/button as dead money but I think SB's range is pretty tight here. That almost works in your favor though since a lot of people flat TT/JJ here but no matter how tight/loose he is he's 3-betting AK. So we're looking at a range of something like QQ+/AK imo for value plus you said he likes to 3-bet light so can have air. Against a range of QQ+/AK we're 65/35 so even then with all that dead money we could probably ship but the fact that he can have air and that IF he has TT/JJ in his range it's because he has a shitton of air in his range that makes this an easy ship.

That said I would never fold if you couldn't profitably ship I think you're still getting odds to just set mine considering button calls a ton behind. You're getting like 5:1 on your money so you don't need to win a ton when you hit to make it profitable.
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

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At first glance, shipping it here looks pretty standard. Too lazy to do the math, but it can't really be bad if SB ever has air in his range, which he clearly has a lot of here. Even against TT+,AK we have over 30% equity so we don't have to pick it up that often for this to be profitable.
 
KardKlub

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IMO if you ship now it's like 2-1 for anyone else to call your all in, and with 2 players left to act i just don't see who well your 99 is going to hold out.
 
polakpoker4

polakpoker4

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IMO if you ship now it's like 2-1 for anyone else to call your all in, and with 2 players left to act i just don't see who well your 99 is going to hold out.

But can I fold and leave all that dead money on the table, folding a hand that has decent equity vs everyone elses' range?
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

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let's see some stoves people

ugh. . . . but that will take work.

If we just assume the UTG as dead money, then we need to get folds 28% of the time assuming we have 30% equity when called.

If we assume UTG calls with any pair and AJ+ and SB calls with TT+ and AK we have 25% equity when we get it in vs. both.

If we assume SB folds and UTG calls with any pair and AJ+ we have 55% equity. Under this assumption, we are always profiting.

I'm pretty sure shoving here is the best play.
 
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bubonicplay

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IMO if you ship now it's like 2-1 for anyone else to call your all in, and with 2 players left to act i just don't see who well your 99 is going to hold out.

Oh you mean they'll be calling with worse hands than 99? Explain to me how that hurts our equity. Remember the more people in the less often we have to win. But I disagree that they are calling lighter. When you have AT in this spot are you really calling just because there are already 2-3 all-in? No of course not you think oh **** one of them must have me completely crushed easy fold.
 
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baudib1

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The thing is that there is so much Ax/smaller pairs in the ranges of everyone else we can wind up a huge favorite to win this thing and if we ship the CO/BTN will fold TT/JJ/overs a lot.
 
S93

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The thing is that there is so much Ax/smaller pairs in the ranges of everyone else we can wind up a huge favorite to win this thing and if we ship the CO/BTN will fold TT/JJ/overs a lot.
We dont really need him to fold TT/JJ for it to be profitable though(and does he really fold TT/JJ after he squezes?).
His range just has to be wide to start with, which it is, so it doesnt really matter if he is gonna call wide(in which case we can get it in as favorite/flip) or he is gonna fold alot in which case the dead money makes up for the times he calls and where 65/35 behind to TT+/AQ+.
And thats ignoring all the times the BTN/SB folds and the UTG fish calls and we have him dominated.

Edit: Ooops thought u said SB will fold TT/JJ, ignore me please ;).
 
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baudib1

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what do you think of these ranges for UTG and SB

149,052,570 games 120.424 secs 1,237,731 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.567% 36.14% 00.43% 53866500 637979.17 { 99 }
Hand 1: 29.977% 29.18% 00.79% 43497373 1183379.17 { 22+, A8s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 33.456% 32.65% 00.80% 48672640 1194698.67 { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
 
S93

S93

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If SB is squezing light u dont think he has some SC in his range oposed to 22 and A9s?
 
cucumber_pandas

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In general, even players who 3bet a lot, dont 3bet that light when the raise pf is 5x and even less when it is 6x imo. Its a really close spot, just b/c his 3bet is so high though. I think folding is fine and is definitely the decision that is the least variant. Shoving is also not terrible b/c of all the dead money. Flip a coin and decide. I don't think the EV of folding over shoving or shoving over folding is significant at all though.
 
polakpoker4

polakpoker4

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Ya I agree its pretty close in the end but given all the dead money in the pot I couldnt help myself but go for it :p

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with 9 9
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, BTN calls $6, SB raises to $19, 1 fold, UTG calls $18, Hero raises to $100 all in, CO raises to $105.25 all in, 3 folds

Flop: ($245.00) K T 3 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: ($245.00) 5 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($245.00) 6 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $245.00
Hero shows 9 9 (a pair of Nines)
CO shows J J (a pair of Jacks)
CO wins $243.00

CO snap called my shove and I knew I was toast at that point lol but my read on the SB squeezing light seemed to be fairly accurate I believe.
 
KardKlub

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I guess it makes sense out of everyone who would call it would have been the co as he called your raise before everyone and there mum did, so he should have been the strongest. But as i said, its only dead money if your not called and there is just to much action and the pot is too huge to deter any good value hand in folding.
 
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