$100 NLHE 6-max: 3-barrel donk bet bluff: I try to make a reg fold an overpair

$100 NL HE 6-max: 3-barrel donk bet bluff: I try to make a reg fold an overpair

Villain is a 16/11/25%(2.5) reg over 451 hands.

I figure this is just an ISF theorem spot, where my range crushes his on this flop. He can't like his hand very much when I put him in on the river. The question is, does he fold?

Ultimate Bet, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

BTN: $99.70 (99.7 bb)
Hero (SB): $290.53 (290.5 bb)
BB: $144.35 (144.4 bb)
UTG: $266.85 (266.9 bb)
MP: $100.40 (100.4 bb)
CO: $194.82 (194.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with A♥ J♦
UTG folds, MP raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, BB folds

Flop: ($9) 2♣ 6♦ 7♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $7.25, MP calls $7.25

Turn: ($23.50) 8♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $21.75, MP calls $21.75

River: ($67) 7♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $68, MP has $67.40 behind

I kinda like it because you can basically rep all nut hands and he can't after he flats the flop donk. Only problem is there are some missed draws and most nits look for excuses to call down postflop because it's rare that they get to play one past the flop . So idk I've learned the hard way that the way to make money is not to put people on overpairs and bluff them off it but if there is a time this works. Especially with the flush draw out there you can pretty credibly rep any set while he virtually always has an overpair in this spot.

Unless you've been triple barreling a lot at the table and he thinks your capable/likely of doing that with air I really can't see a call here.

Edit: what zach said

The problem here is that your "plan" changes to suit you situation: you weak lead (donk bet) because you have a big ace that you think is likely good on this rag flop; when he flats you convince yourself that you can take him off AK or any middle pair (99 ect) when you double barrel the over-card; you "luck" out in that an undercard comes and now you change your plan to "I am reping a set, and I was all along"-- but clearly this isn't how you would play a set [in his mind]... river is an obvious shove (iyho) based on our delusional hole cards.

If you think about what this looks like to him: clearly this is a totally rational line with something like TT... he is NEVER folding since there are so many hands he beats that take this line.

Um.. wow, I gotta say I disagree with everything you posted there AG.

I like the line. It would probably be better at FR than at 6max in terms of fold equity, but i do like it. I'm just not sure your image is appropriate for it.

BelgoSuisse said:

I'm just not sure your image is appropriate for it.

Click to expand...

Yeah, that's the main thing that worried me. It was early in the session as well, so he hadn't had a chance to be reminded of the crap I pull.

I think the river bet is profitable versus most opponents, but I don't like the line as a whole. On the turn, if your intention was to shove the river if called (and you must have had a plan for the river if called, right?) you're risking $90 to win $23.75. And that I don't think is profitable, even if the river as an isolated street works out for you.

ugh, i dont see villain folding this river very often at all, since if they called turn thinking they were ahead, the river has changed nothing so they should call again. The only draw that got there is 45 aswell, so your repping such a tight range of 45, 2's full, 6's full, 8's full and quads of hands villain loses to, i see him calling this river most of the time, especially if he knows your style