$100 NLHE 6-max: 3-barrel bluff in limped pot?

$100 NL HE 6-max: 3-barrel bluff in limped pot?

Villain is a 25/5/25%(2.2) over 303 hands.

Any idea how much fold equity a river bet has here? Smaller river bet? Think this guy can fold a 9?

Ultimate Bet, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

MP: $52.20 (52.2 bb)
CO: $156.65 (156.7 bb)
BTN: $149.78 (149.8 bb)
Hero (SB): $169.90 (169.9 bb)
BB: $31.35 (31.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 3♥ 5♣
MP calls $1, CO folds, BTN calls $1, Hero completes, BB checks

Flop: ($4) 6♣ 4♥ 9♥ (4 players)
Hero bets $3, BB calls $3, MP calls $3, BTN calls $3

Turn: ($16) Q♣ (4 players)
Hero bets $12, BB folds, MP folds, BTN calls $12

River: ($40) J♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $35

looks to me like villian has trips and if thats the case he ain't folding no matter what. I'm not sure if I would have thrown out the bet on the river. It was pretty obvious he wasn't gonna fold. You didn't hit your straight so I would just check and hope he checks also. If he bets I would call if it was a small bet just so I could look him up. If its a large bet just cut your losses and fold. Move on to the next hand.

SONIC589 said:

looks to me like villian has trips and if thats the case he ain't folding no matter what. I'm not sure if I would have thrown out the bet on the river. It was pretty obvious he wasn't gonna fold. You didn't hit your straight so I would just check and hope he checks also. If he bets I would call if it was a small bet just so I could look him up. If its a large bet just cut your losses and fold. Move on to the next hand.

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Interesting strategy, young Jedi....

im not sure if he is going to fold here.. he already spend $16 on calling you till the river now got $15 left and it costs him $15 to potentially win $55. If he's got the 9 i think he is calling you...What could he be putting you on? heart flush draw? also a 9? i`m not sure.. i`m still learning so i want to see an answer by somebody whos got more experience then me...

this is a pretty bad flop to take a stab at; low, drawy board in a 4-way limped pot...that said we do have equity so I don't hate it.

As played I think it's a little thin on the turn with two people still in, but it's a perfect turn card obv, as is the river. Meh, I don't expect to take it down too often but perfect/perfect for bluffing is pretty enticing.

IF I fire this river, i think i fire much smaller. Half pot or something. We don't need to fire big to fold out missed flush draws that beat us, and i don't think we should expect to get a lot more fold equity from a bigger bet, because villain is probably calling 3 streets with a made hand.

SONIC589 said:

If he bets I would call if it was a small bet just so I could look him up.

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Wow.

I wouldn't lead this flop, if you bluff river i think you can get away with MUCH smaller (like $25 even) since we are trying to fold out 78, 57,6x/9x, pp type hands. I think w/ the way the board worked out villain could have some weird 2 pair hands or a flush draw that picked up a pair/something else, sometimes backed into a 6x/9x/other backdoor flushes. I guess to say this in another way - if villain can peel flop fairly widely given crazy pot/implied odds given the action on the flop, he can pick up alot of other hands on the turn that will want to peel again and the river then fills in some of those hands at least somewhat. So when a board comes this coordinated afterwards, they aren't always as much scare cards as much cards that tend to help villain's range more than ours. This does depend on a fairly wide flop peel tho, since a tight flop peeling range will have villain's range more weighted towards weak hands like 78/9T, etc. This is not to say that i think this is a bad spot to bluff on the river, but more to say that betting smaller is better IMO because we are only going to be folding out this weaker part of villain's range rather than some of the hands that villain will show up with that will make you go wtf...

dont think you were betting enough to show hand strength, dont think it is enough to make the player fold, if they are suspicious of your play

You need to push all in on the river to show a lot of strength

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We have one guy who thinks that we should c/c with the 2nd nut low hand out of curiosity and another who thinks we should shove 135bbs on the river to win a 40bb pot

i misread the hand, it wasnt the BB who called it was the BTN.. lol now it changes everything... that big bet actually can work in this case if he is holding a 9... but it's still one big bet like the others are saying..

feitr said:

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We have one guy who thinks that we should c/c with the 2nd nut low hand out of curiosity and another who thinks we should shove 135bbs on the river to win a 40bb pot

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And people wonder when I say the hand analysis forum is going down the toilet...

ya maybe all in was the wrong idea, seeing as how the players are well stacked and the pot is relatively small.

I just don't see strength in the betting, there is nothing there that says I can beat the 9.

I said all in when I should have said an overbet, maybe throw in $65 to make sure there isn't a call.

What exactly does it matter, the player will call the $35 river bet and win all that money bluffed away.

need to show something, not that I like to bet every round of betting.
An over bet or an all in would get the villain to see the flush and wonder, man did he just hit the backdoor on me ?

I can't call that with my 9 or the set of nines I nailed on the flop, oh well, only $16 lost, not $75 or all my money.

just like you said, 135BB into a 40BB pot, that should win everytime, sometimes you gotta be stupid to win

bfw0082 said:

ya maybe all in was the wrong idea, seeing as how the players are well stacked and the pot is relatively small.

I just don't see strength in the betting, there is nothing there that says I can beat the 9.

I said all in when I should have said an overbet, maybe throw in $65 to make sure there isn't a call.

What exactly does it matter, the player will call the $35 river bet and win all that money bluffed away.

need to show something, not that I like to bet every round of betting.
An over bet or an all in would get the villain to see the flush and wonder, man did he just hit the backdoor on me ?

I can't call that with my 9 or the set of nines I nailed on the flop, oh well, only $16 lost, not $75 or all my money.

just like you said, 135BB into a 40BB pot, that should win everytime, sometimes you gotta be stupid to win

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lol the bigger the bet doesnt mean the stronger the hand

anyway C9 i dont particularly like firing the flop but once you do and the board cooperates so well on the turn and river firing here is fine imo

if he calls and shows a 9 oh well note it and value town him later

I mean if I fired flop and turn yeah I think betting river is nice, but as everyone said smaller is better. I fold pre though. But now that someone mentions it, c/c is by far the most interesting line you could take here, so I'd mix up my play between betting just over half the pot, min betting to see where I'm at and c/c.

Eh, it's an OK line. I think the turn bet is dicey, but it depends on who the other two players are; if they're decent, then they're going to need a pretty strong hand (at least a pair of queens) to call, since there's more people left to act and they won't call the turn with T9 and two people left to act who could wake up and raise them. If the other two players are fish, I don't like the turn bet.

The river is OK. Bet sizing is always tricky, but it's difficult to get it perfect. And the problem with the "perfect" bet sizing is that it's exactly one penny away from being called, which makes it a much more risky bluff than betting a bit bigger. I've been meaning to write something about that sometime but haven't gotten around to it. Every book I've read, people keep saying "just enough to get the job done" but that's only nice in theory. In practise, you don't know where the line for "getting the job done" goes, so you make sure to overshoot it a bit to make sure you don't end up on the wrong side of it, because the extra couple of bucks you invest in safing it is - usually - considerably less than the original investment you're trying to save.

Anyway. Assuming the two players trapped in the middle aren't calling stations, I like the whole hand.

@ some of the advice in this thread... geez.

check/call that river (because we think he has trips no less)? wtf?



anyways...

I actually like this line against reasonably good opponents. Will fold out any busted draws and many 1 pair hands. If even one of them is a calling station I don't bet this river ever (calling station is never folding a pair here!) and the turn bet is kinda dicey but probably still ok since you will get paid off when you get there. Although on the same token you aren't going to fold out a calling station with the turn bet and they are fairly likely to check it through or bet smallish if they do bet so meh.

As far as bet sizing... I think I agree that it could probably be smaller and get the job done... $25-$30 should do it.

I think firing a bet on the flop is fine. You have good equity at that point. Once you're called by 3 people though, I would shut down OOP. You may get to see the river for free/cheap (you still have decent equity in a 4 way pot with one card to come). You may not. But in a limped multiway pot, I've found that 'putting people on hands ' is next to impossible. Trying to make a bad player who limped the button fold what was top pr on the flop might be way too optimistic.