$10 PLO 6-max: Variance or bad play?

N

Narcotic35

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 10, 2018
Total posts
134
Chips
0
<div>I had a decent run at PLO with +17 BI and was preparing for a stab at the next stake level. At the same time I've been studying a lot and am trying to improve my aggression play, as I am generally playing a bit too loose passive and give up too easily. The problem is that since I started doing that I have had a 8 BI downswing and spots like this one have happened a lot. I am thinking that maybe I got something fundamentally wrong about the maths here, so please help with advice!!

PLO 10, 5 seats, BU is a nit and SB is slightly loose and will overplay AAxx on a wet board. The game has been running with little action pre-flop, there are very few 3-bets and the only 4-bets was by hero who won with AAKJ ds

SB (villain) $12.15
BB
UTG (hero) $14.48
CO
BU $15.65

Hero is dealt :qd4: :6h4: :7c4: :8c4:

Hero open limps $0.10
CO folds, BU raises to $0.45, SB (villain) calls, BB folds, hero calls

Flop: :10h4: :5c4: :4c4: (pot size $1.45)

Viallain donk raises pot $1.45, hero hesitates and calls, BU folds

Turn: :7s4: (pot size $4.35)

Villain pots again $4.35, hero tries to estimate villains outs and raises to $12.58 and is all-in, villain snap-calls. Pot size $24.58</div>
 
Last edited:
N

Narcotic35

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 10, 2018
Total posts
134
Chips
0
My limp was questionable from EP with a run-down plus dangler, but the table game was not very aggressive and I was confident I could find a spot post-flop with most players only playing high cards.

The flop was nice and when villain raised I put him on ragged AAxx unsuited (best scenario, although I realize now that it's unlikely for him to try a semi-bluff from SB against two other players), or TTxx, QQTx or something like that. I was not so afraid of a flush as I was holding two blockers.

My plan on the flop was to fit or fold on the turn and taking advantage of my position.

On the turn I thought: ok, whatever he has, I am ahead by miles, so I pushed all-in being as happy with a fold as with a call.

The river came :5h4: and villain shows :kc4: :kd4: :10c4: :5s4: and wins with a boat.

My odds were 37% pre, 38% flop, 75% turn, so my shove was justified with stack to pot ratio of $8.70 pot / $6.25 effective stack size = 1.39:1.

the question is: was villain right to call? $18.68 pot / $5.90 remaining stack = 3.16:1 = 31.5%. Having only 25% odds, this was a bad call then, am I right?

Thanks for corrections and advice !!
 
N

Narcotic35

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 10, 2018
Total posts
134
Chips
0
Let's see if I can get the EV analysis right. I'm betting $10.25 effective on the turn. The EV for the shove would be (chances of win*pot) - (chances to loose * bet size)?

If villain always calls, the EV on the turn is: ($12.15*0.75) - ($10.25*0.25) = +$6.55 (+65 BB)

If we have 50% fold equity, and villain only calls half the time it is: (6.25*0.5) + [0.5* ($12.15*0.75) - ($10.25*0.25)] = +$6.40 (+64 BB)

Does that make shoving here always the right move?
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
im not much of a PLO player at all, but i think there could be an argument made for raising OTF. i like the jam OTT. I would definitely fold pre though. danglers UTG are no good

now that i think about it, i think on the flop, calling is the worst option raise or fold OTF
 
Last edited:
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
Let's see if I can get the EV analysis right. I'm betting $10.25 effective on the turn. The EV for the shove would be (chances of win*pot) - (chances to loose * bet size)?

If villain always calls, the EV on the turn is: ($12.15*0.75) - ($10.25*0.25) = +$6.55 (+65 BB)

If we have 50% fold equity, and villain only calls half the time it is: (6.25*0.5) + [0.5* ($12.15*0.75) - ($10.25*0.25)] = +$6.40 (+64 BB)

Does that make shoving here always the right move?
youre comparing the wrong things here. you should be comparing the EV of a call to the EV of a shove. here youre comparing the EV of your shove if he never folds (which is totally irrelevent) to the EV of your shove if he folds sometimes. make sense?
 
N

Narcotic35

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 10, 2018
Total posts
134
Chips
0
I have run into the same or very similar situation several times already, like 3 times today alone and always get rivered, no matter if I have a made straight, hold a blocker to the villains hand and the NFD.....


youre comparing the wrong things here. you should be comparing the EV of a call to the EV of a shove. here youre comparing the EV of your shove if he never folds (which is totally irrelevent) to the EV of your shove if he folds sometimes. make sense?

Ok, yes it makes sense. Let's see if I can correct that: EV (fold vs shove) would be -$1.90 (fold) [discarded] vs +$6.55 (+65BB) (shove), and for a call it would be EV(call, villain always folds on river if he doesn't improve) ($13.05*0.75) - ($4.35*0.25) = +$8.70 (+87BB)

Does that mean it is way better to call and then pick and choose on the river even if villain always folds if he doesn't improve????? Please let me know if I got the calculation right, because I might have found a massive leak here..... :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: !!!

Would the conclusion be to minimize losses when villain hits the hand on the river and even if he doesn't call, it's still the better choice? This is, of course assuming there is no fold equity on the turn - in this scenario probably there was no fold equity against this player, I admit, even with a marginal -EV call from him that he wasn't even aware of most likely.

Obviously, I have to be a bit more cautious about my SH selection and position, I agree that I sometimes play looser than is good for me.

THANK YOU SO MUCH for pointing that out :icon_flow
 
N

Narcotic35

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 10, 2018
Total posts
134
Chips
0
im not much of a PLO player at all, but i think there could be an argument made for raising OTF. i like the jam OTT. I would definitely fold pre though. danglers UTG are no good

now that i think about it, i think on the flop, calling is the worst option raise or fold OTF


Is that because I could realize my fold equity and even if he does 3-bet all in I need 31% equity and I have 38%, which makes it +EV to call the all in?

Edit: and to isolate, of course....I couldn't know that the BU was going to fold.
 
Last edited:
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
Is that because I could realize my fold equity and even if he does 3-bet all in I need 31% equity and I have 38%, which makes it +EV to call the all in?

Edit: and to isolate, of course....I couldn't know that the BU was going to fold.

Im not sure how youre getting 38% equity, but yes because you realize your fold equity. i doubt you have 38% equity against his flop 3bet jamming range

EDIT: woops, i forgot that when he 3bet jams you can calculate equity for 2 streets since the action is completed, i see where youre getting 38% now
 
Top