$10 PLO 6-max: Top 2, open-ended, facing Turn Check Raise

vinnie

vinnie

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 70/42/5

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 3 players

BB: 570.1 BB (VPIP: 82.14, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, hands: 28)
Hero (BTN): 161.4 BB
SB: 92.8 BB (VPIP: 69.57, PFR: 42.03, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 69)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :jc4: :10h4: :9d4: :8d4:

Hero raises to 3.5 BB, SB calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) :8s4: :10c4: :3h4:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 10 BB, SB calls 10 BB, fold

Turn: (30.5 BB, 2 players) :6d4:
SB checks, Hero bets 21 BB, SB raises to 79.3 BB and is all-in

I just hate my bet and my life, in this spot. He's repping 9-7, and unless he's bluffing a ton, there's nothing I can do but fold.
 
K

KFlint

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Yeah, unfortunately!

Was trying to figure out if it's a better to check back and realize equity when this turn card hit, but think I'd bet it also.
 
T

Tricktappic

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 70/42/5

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 3 players

BB: 570.1 BB (VPIP: 82.14, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 28)
Hero (BTN): 161.4 BB
SB: 92.8 BB (VPIP: 69.57, PFR: 42.03, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 69)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :jc4: :10h4: :9d4: :8d4:

Hero raises to 3.5 BB, SB calls 3 BB, BB calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 3 players) :8s4: :10c4: :3h4:
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 10 BB, SB calls 10 BB, fold

Turn: (30.5 BB, 2 players) :6d4:
SB checks, Hero bets 21 BB, SB raises to 79.3 BB and is all-in

I just hate my bet and my life, in this spot. He's repping 9-7, and unless he's bluffing a ton, there's nothing I can do but fold.
Uggh, def a gross spot. Assuming that villain has specificly 97xx we are not even getting a semi decent price to call and that's why this is a gross spot, because I think I'm calling it off regardless. So Say villain has A♠️9♠️7♦️K♦️ we still have about 28% ish Eq with any Queen, Ten Or Seven. (Barring 10♣️ 10♥️ 7♦️) so you have about 11 outs to hit on the river. And who knows, maybe villain is doing this with a hand similar to ours hoping to protect with Top 2 and push out any draws. However, this is less likely. So given how to hand turned out you did make the correct decision as we did indeed need a better price to call it off. However, for me, i think I'm going to close my eyes and gamble here and take my 28% ish. Sometimes, he shows a similar to ours and possibly a lower type wrap hand with top pair if that's the case we're in decent shape against a hand like that.

Close spot!
 
vinnie

vinnie

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If we are never facing a bluff, we have to fold.
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If we're facing a bluff like 10% of the time, we're in good shape. But, this is if they bluff randomly from their range.
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If they turn an over-pair into a bluff that 10% of the time. We're not in great shape. We don't have the odds to call there. There's a continuous spectrum between those two spots, which is the problem. That's the grey area. I think it's unreasonable to think we have 52% equity. It might be unreasonable to think we only have 25%. But, truth be told, at PLO10, I think it's much much closer to the 25% side than the 52%.

The real question is how often they are bluffing and what they are turning into a bluff.

In the end. I folded. I just don't think turn raises are bluffs very often at these tables, even with someone who is as aggressive as this player.
 
T

Tricktappic

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Of course he is going to show you the nuts a large majority of the time so of course it was the correct decision to fold given the pot odds. But imho it's not ALWAYS a fold, as you mentioned villains range is so wide I just can't be folding in this spot every time. Like I said, it is correct to fold here, but some of the time I'm going to take my equity and gamble against these super loose aggros.
 
Omahahahaha

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No need to bet so much on either the flop or the turn on such a dry board, especially with this hand.

It is 58 to win 130 so you are getting a little over 2:1. You are not going to see a bluff very often here if you call. He could even have top set, a hand you would be in worse shape against. Most of the time you will see 97.
 
vinnie

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You aren't betting pot on this flop? I feel there are a lot of turn cards that reduce our equity and the extra value we get from folds is worth it. Anything but a diamond puts a flush draw out there.

I don't know. I could see betting less on the turn, or not betting at all, but I am not convinced that I want people chasing for cheap on the flop.
 
Omahahahaha

Omahahahaha

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No, I'm not betting pot on the flop with this holding, I would rather try to get some more value out of my hand.
 
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