I have to call 43.6xbb more, the pot will be 159.1xbb after I call. That means I need around 27.4% equity to call here. When we take rake into account (88xbb in this case), the pot will be 150.3xbb, and I will still be risking 43.6xbb more, so I need about 29% to break even,
So, yeah, if I have 25% equity, then I probably have to call. Because we do have to account for the chance that someone is spazzing out. Against the same straight, and an over-pair with a flush draw, I have 26.6%. So, enough to call.
* Hand Equity
* th8c5s9s 26.62%
* t9 31.63%
* aa:dd 41.75%
The thing is, there are a lot of spots I can think of where I am just about getting the right odds
to stick the rest in. And, there are a lot where I am just not. Say someone has A-T-9-x, and the other person has Q-J-x-xdd. Those aren't unreasonable hands, but those have me in nasty shape.
* Hand Equity
* th8c5s9s 17.92%
* at9 32.17%
* qj:dd 49.91%
There are a lot of combinations they can hold that put me in the 15%-20% range. Some even worse (set+fd against K-T-9-x has me at 11%). I found a few combinations that put me in the 20-25% range, but very few put me higher than that. I know that worrying about being up against two perfect hands (QQ:dd and A-K-T-9 [9%]) is just being paranoid at these stack sizes and stakes. But, I feel like it's too optimistic to think neither of them has the straight and they're spazzing out with something that gives me 30%+ equity.
I guess it's putting them on reasonable ranges that I'm struggling with most. I mean, I did end up calling and I know exactly what they did end up having, but that only gives me a clue as to their range.
What do you think is a reasonable bottom end for someone to be shoving here? What about reshoving, where you know that you are going to showdown and have no fold-equity? The second player should have stronger equity than the original shover, I would think.
Edit: If, at some point, you feel it would be valuable to know what they actually did have. I can provide it. But, I feel like it would just distract from the discussion.