$10 PLO 6-max: Do we continue firing on turn?

jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/5/3.5

Cake - $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha (6 players)
Cake Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com

SB Brendt1032: $5.92
BB zdenka: $8.63
UTG Pkrismycrack: $4.75
MP Jordanbillie: $11.06
CO Shappelle: $8.54
BTN Queens2: $10.42

Pre-flop: ($0.15) Jordanbillie is MP and dealt :6h4: :ad4: :ac4: :5s4:
Pkrismycrack calls $0.10, Jordanbillie raises to $0.45, 3 folds, zdenka calls $0.35, Pkrismycrack calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.40) :4d4: :7c4: :8d4: (3 players)
zdenka checks, Pkrismycrack checks, Jordanbillie bets $1.10, zdenka calls $1.10, Pkrismycrack folds

Turn: ($3.60) :4d4: :7c4: :8d4: :7h4: (2 players)
zdenka checks, Jordanbillie ???????



Is opponent likely flatting this flop with 87, 74, 44, 77 or 88? Should we be concerned with this turn, or like it? What's an appropriate bet size here? Are we folding to a c/r?
 
jbbb

jbbb

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Any reads on villain? He seems aggressive but that can sometimes be misleading. Does he play tricky, does he c/r at all?

FWIW i'm always folding to a c/r as it's always the nuts at this level baring some incredible read, still debating whether to check behind or not though. tbh it's hard without reads.
Would like to see what DW says about this. We should be aware of the nuts, not scared of them, however betting will create a large pot and there are quite a few rivers that we'll hate to see and he can take the pot away easily with a river bet (if he's that kind of player, again, reads needed).
 
jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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I have no reads. I didn't play with this opponent at the $4 level and only had hands on him from this session.
 
dwbrown7680

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You should be leading here for about $2.25 almost all the time. You can argue that checking isn't a horrible idea but it really is most of the time. What are your opponents stats? There aren't too many nut hands in his range at this point, outside of something like 7789/889T/789T specifically. He shouldn't have many 4's at all.

Basically you still have the nut straight and you should be going for value always here. If you bet $2.25 and he ships over top of you then we can find a fold but you don't want to miss out on value honestly. We might have to readjust based on the river but I'm probably shipping most non diamond rivers, especially if they pair the board for a 2nd time (i.e. another 4 or 8 hits otr)
 
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baudib1

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The only reason to check this turn is if he's going to fold like 99% of his range, which a ton of villains will do. So we should for sure bet our flush draws and T9 and air. He is rarely going to flat the flop with a set and probably not even 87. I'd bet $1.50-$2.50 and fold to a C-R.
 
jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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RESULTS:

Jordanbillie bets: $2.20
zdenka: folds
 
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Slow Roll Poker

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I would have continued to fire. He most likely just had an over-pair as well, probably Qs or Ks.
 
dj11

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The only thing that slows me down significantly on the turn is the final flush card. Didn't happen. I am much less worried about the boat possibilities, and in any case, you need to find out something, anything, about what villain is doing. If you bet the turn, villain will think you are holding the boat as much as any str8.

Bet that turn, re-evalutate depending......

As an afterthought, you could just min bet. Give villain an escape. It amazes me how many players fish for hands are are more than willing to give up on them when they realized the turn did not help, and they can no longer get lucky. They don't want to force fold, but are more than willing to fold to any bet, doesn't need to be huge, any bet gives them an easy out. Take this from someone who likes to fish for a hand, but has learned to drop the chase at the earliest possible opportunity.
 
jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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I think a 40/5 fish will certainly chase a flush/straight on a paired board for a min bet. I understand your thought process, but I don't really agree with it. If our only purpose for betting is to get villain to fold, aren't we better off checking to possibly get some value OTR?
 
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baudib1

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I think a 40/5 fish will certainly chase a flush/straight on a paired board for a min bet. I understand your thought process, but I don't really agree with it. If our only purpose for betting is to get villain to fold, aren't we better off checking to possibly get some value OTR?

It's reasonably close; in a vacuum, with a better read vs. a villain with no quity, possibly. For example, if you're playing a villain who will always lead or C-R an overpair with a big flush draw you can check and try to get value from JJ-KK type hands, although hands that are folding the turn are still folding the river a ton.

The problem is he has plenty of hands that have decent equity against us if he gets to the turn with KKxxdd.

1. Getting him to fold 25% equity isn't a terrible result.
2. Our betting range for double-barreling here should needs to be wider than the stone-cold nuts.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Baudib's replies always include rubbish about balance, but he's right for these two reasons.

1) You can vbet wider than the nuts on almost any board, including this one. This has very little to do with balance and a lot to do with the fact that fish suck and hate folding.
2) You must give villain an opportunity to make a mistake. And even in this scenario where villain is likely to fold, I think your best chance at getting him to screw up is to value bet rather than to induce a bluff.
 
jordanbillie

jordanbillie

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Great discussion guys. Thanks a lot!
 
jbbb

jbbb

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Great discussion guys. Thanks a lot!

+1. What about the river?

Say he checks to us again and there is:

a) a brick
b) a diamond
c) a higher straight card (9,T)

Say he bets into us about 3/4 pot on:

a) a brick
b) a diamond
c) a higher straight card (9,T)

Thanks.
 
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