$10 PLO 6-max: Bet River with bottom boat on double paired board or check-call

vinnie

vinnie

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7733ds isn't exactly a quality hand UTG, but this table has been fairly passive against limpers and the only aggressive player pre-flop I have position on. I limp and face a pot-sized bet, and make the call.

I hit bottom set on the flop, which is to be expected with this sort of hand. It checks through, and I bet the turn when the middle card pairs. He flats. The river pairs the top card from the flop. At this point, I think it's pretty solid to assume he has trips. Either trip 9s or trip Ks. There's a slim chance he has a boat or better. I think my boat is likely good for a small bet here, but not against a raise. Should I bet/fold this, hoping to get a call from trips? If I do, I think I only get value from K-x-x-x. Or do I check, risking him checking behind, in the hopes that he will also bet 9-x-x-x here.

Merge - $0.10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 106.8 BB
CO: 58.4 BB (VPIP: 39.73, PFR: 8.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 73)
BTN: 87.6 BB (VPIP: 47.21, PFR: 0.51, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 197)
SB: 71.4 BB (VPIP: 40.37, PFR: 4.04, 3Bet Preflop: 1.37, Hands: 322)
BB: 107.8 BB (VPIP: 43.85, PFR: 26.15, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 262)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3:club: 7:club: 3:heart: 7:heart:

Hero calls 1 BB, CO raises to 4.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 2 players) 7:diamond: 9:diamond: K:club:
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (10.5 BB, 2 players) 9:club:
Hero bets 6 BB, CO calls 6 BB

River: (22.5 BB, 2 players) K:spade:
Hero ??
 
A

AshTheGreat

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Oh, Omaha. You really know how to put those turn cards out there.

Since this is a tournament, it really depends on your style, read on your opponent, and how many players left. Are people at the $10 buy-in PLO tourney level still terrible? It is a 6-max. It's way high variance, but "theoretically" you get what little value exists from a bet/fold unless the field is strong. Still, I don't like that they checked behind on a flush draw flop. That's something people do a lot with two pair or stronger.

The only reason you get any value though is because you get an occasional bad LAG hero by trip kings figuring you for a missed flush draw repping their hand. On the other hand, checking to a NIT could cause them to use their image to rep the hand. What happened is just an unprofitable runout of cards. It's really awful the river was a K considering how great the turn was. There's no right answer here against a decent opponent. I don't know if you get enough trip K calls to justify a 15 BB bet. Heavily depends on your image and opponent type if there's any value in either line. I think you sometimes get value out of betting LAGs and check-calling NITs in this spot, but overall the river card just erased most any value possible. I don't think any player ever bets or calls with trip 9s.
 
vinnie

vinnie

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It is a cash game. I am tempted to bet really tiny here, like 6-8xbb, to try and get a hero call from trips. I think anything bigger folds out everything I beat. If I get raised, I think it is a standard fold because I doubt he finds a bluff on this run out. The other option was trying to attempt a check/call and hope he bets enough trips to make up for when he is full here. You might be right that he isn't going to bet often enough.

The turn and river do suck. I don't think I get many calls from betting half-pot or more. There might just be no value left to get from this hand. The turn and river just killed my value.
 
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nkat

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much prefer raising to limping this.. im not folding though.

erm.. yeah tough one.. usually better to bet (big) w/o reads
 
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