Originally Posted by Suited Frenzy
Really? Fold the 3rd NUTz?
I read your reasoning & it makes sense but how often do we really fold here after flopping the 3rd NUTz?
Right here is what's wrong with your thinking. Also, this hand is an automatic preflop fold. Awful preflop hand.
Yes. You currently have the third nuts. The key word in that sentence is not "nuts" but "currently".
Omaha is a drawing game, and a set is little more than a draw to a full house. Making a lesser full house than someone else is a relatively common occurance in omaha whereas in hold'em it's much rarer. Non-nut full houses can easily cost you lots of money.
This is not hold em... middle and bottom set are massively weaker hands here than they are in hold em, especially without a good redraw.
in a 3 way pot, odds of bottom set being the best by the river, when you have no other good way to win the pot with your hand are poor at best. All you have to go with your set are a gut shot straight draw and a backdoor (non-nut) flush draw. As marginal already pointed out... a ridiculous amount of the deck makes it quite likely someone will beat you (with either a straight or flush) and if you are up against a higher set (not that uncommon) you are pretty much totally dead.
In this hand the best you can hope for is to be up against some combination of straight draws/flush draws and 2 pair hands. Your equity there isn't stellar but you do have some.
If one of your opponents has TT or 99, well...you have virtually zero chance of winning anything.