$10 NLHEFull Ring: Strong draw on flop, brick on turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/6/1

I find myself getting stuck in these situations. I know we have a ton of equity on the flop and would be happy to build a decent pot then and there. When the turn bricks we lose a lot of our hands potential and in a case like this I am out of position. Now I don't really want to build the pot but I am 90% sure that I will face a bet if I check.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($14.65)
BB ($10.90)
UTG ($13.87)
UTG+1 ($11.30)
UTG+2 ($24.23)
Hero ($10)
BTN ($5.81)

Dealt to Hero 9♦ T♦

UTG calls $0.10, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.35, BTN calls $0.35, fold, BB calls $0.25, UTG calls $0.25

FLOP ($1.45) T♠ 8♦ 4♦

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.80, BTN calls $0.80, BB folds, UTG folds

TURN ($3.05) T♠ 8♦ 4♦ 3♠

Hero??

stubzy11 said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/6/1

I find myself getting stuck in these situations. I know we have a ton of equity on the flop and would be happy to build a decent pot then and there. When the turn bricks we lose a lot of our hands potential and in a case like this I am out of position. Now I don't really want to build the pot but I am 90% sure that I will face a bet if I check.


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($14.65)
BB ($10.90)
UTG ($13.87)
UTG+1 ($11.30)
UTG+2 ($24.23)
Hero ($10)
BTN ($5.81)

Dealt to Hero 9♦ T♦

UTG calls $0.10, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.35, BTN calls $0.35, fold, BB calls $0.25, UTG calls $0.25

FLOP ($1.45) T♠ 8♦ 4♦

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.80, BTN calls $0.80, BB folds, UTG folds

TURN ($3.05) T♠ 8♦ 4♦ 3♠

Hero??

Click to expand...

This is the problem with playing suited connectors out of position. You can't control the pot and have to act before your opponent. Villain is very loose but his PFR is repsectable so he is not likely to call with top of his range unless he is tricky and flats top of his range and raises with bottom. Nevertheless he could have any two from a weak ace that paired on the flop to JT or whatever. He has not shown aggression but has not folded here so my line is check/ fold. If he checks behind you still can draw to a flush or trips on the river. If you improve make a value bet on the river but if you are re-raied you need to really evaluate if you are against a bigger flush.

To avoid these spots try not to play these hands until the CO or BTN.

Raise more preflop. You really would prefer to be heads up with the limper. $0.45 or $0.5 would be better than $0.35.

I probably cbet a bit bigger too.

As played, on the turn i typically keep barreling since we have a decent made hand and lots of equity against hands that beat us. And i'd call a raise unless villain is usually super passive.

But if you're pretty sure villain will bet 90% of his range here, I'd rather check-shove this turn. One thing i'll never ever do here is fold at any point since we have the toppest pair against a fish with a 58bb stack.

BelgoSuisse said:

Raise more preflop. You really would prefer to be heads up with the limper. $0.45 or $0.5 would be better than $0.35.

I probably cbet a bit bigger too.

As played, on the turn i typically keep barreling since we have a decent made hand and lots of equity against hands that beat us. And i'd call a raise unless villain is usually super passive.

But if you're pretty sure villain will bet 90% of his range here, I'd rather check-shove this turn. One thing i'll never ever do here is fold at any point since we have the toppest pair against a fish with a 58bb stack.

Click to expand...

I'm still thinking in terms of individual pots. It sounds like you're talking about equity vs a range knowing that if you shove you will lose some of the time but show a long term profit? If so how much equity do you require to shove? 51% or do you want to have a slightly bigger advantage? Also, do you do these equity vs range calculations on the spot or have you just memorized many of these scenarios? Fianlly, if you have a strong equity against a villian's range wouldn't it be just better to shove preflop if you have never played against them? I'm guessing that as you develop a history against an opponent they would gradually adjust their opening hand requirements if you started shoving against them frequently?