$10 NLHEFull Ring: Deep stacked with second best straight on river

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 35/10/2.5

Stats are only over 20 hands but we can assume he is a calling station.

190bb stacks and we have the second nuts on the river. I have worked out what range I put him on for him to be showing this much aggression on the river but I want to know what you think. Also, after finding his range do we shove here or just call?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($20.59)
Hero ($19.05)
UTG ($20.23)
UTG+1 ($14.27)
UTG+2 ($10)
MP1 ($3.07)
MP2 ($20.30)
CO ($20.73)
BTN ($20)

Dealt to Hero 6♦ 7♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.10, fold, fold, Hero checks

FLOP ($0.43) A♥ 8♥ 5♦

Hero checks, CO checks

TURN ($0.43) A♥ 8♥ 5♦ 9♣

Hero bets $0.30, CO calls $0.30

RIVER ($1.03) A♥ 8♥ 5♦ 9♣ Q♣

Hero bets $0.80, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $4, CO raises to $8, Hero ??
 
wrung24

wrung24

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I would think that everybody agrees that you should shove every time here, there is so much he is going to call you with that you beat. I hope you see that anything else than shoving here is wrong, and I hope I'm not missing anything.
 
Numbuh 0ne

Numbuh 0ne

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If your willing to 3-bet the river for value, you should be fist pumping getting it in
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

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LOL @ jack ten.


Just call the raise on the river.
 
KardKlub

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as played call, but you should have just called his original raise on the river.

+ your 3 bet is so low, if you think your ahead and you want a two pair hand to call then why dont you think your ahead now?

people dont 3 bet bluff /4 bet bluff the river at this level. just as a note.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Hmm.

Well let's see, pre-flop he's probably limping pretty wide, let's go all pairs 22-JJ (QQ-AA would probably raise, although maybe they don't), Ax, all broadway, 54s+, 86o+, etc. What of that bets the flop and what of it checks? It depends on how passive he is, this guy is fairly aggressive so he probably bets all of his aces, 66-JJ, his 8x and 5x, maybe 76 or flush draws also, but those could get checked back too. He probably checks back his air too, although many players would fire their air here.

After he checks, the turn peels a 9, which completes 76 and gives draws to T6 and JT, so when he just calls our bet, based on what we thought he checked back on the flop he's calling with mostly draws I'd say. Which brings us to the river... I mean, it's not impossible for villain to have A9/AQ/99, flopped sets, etc. here, but you'd think those hands would be played a little bit faster, so those are more unlikely. Still though, it just seems to gross to flat when we're only afraid of one hand, so basically I'm not really sure. :D I probably would have 3-bet the river also, btw.
 
cjatud2012

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KardKlub said:
as played call, but you should have just called his original raise on the river.

+ your 3 bet is so low, if you think your ahead and you want a two pair hand to call then why dont you think your ahead now?

people dont 3 bet bluff /4 bet bluff the river at this level. just as a note.
Click to expand...

this is true, but they could also be "value-betting" their 98/AJ/other worse hands that a 10NL player would think is good here, which actually isn't that unreasonable I guess because the action on previous streets was pretty light and therefore our perceived range is pretty wide.
 
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baudib1

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Unless you have seen him spazz in these spots with worse before just call the $2.

The biggest problem that microstakes players have is that they cannot valuebet thin on the river and are utterly incapable of bluffraising the river (except in a few obvious spots like when they miss their draw) or range-merging by shoving with a good but not nut-like hand. Villain's biggest mistake is making a min 4-bet instead of just shoving, his line is lolretarded strong and I'd expect him to have JT like 99% of the time.
 
No Brainer

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atlantafalcons0 said:
LOL @ jack ten.


Just call the raise on the river.
Click to expand...

JT every time? Shouldn't we fold then? If we are certain we are beat why put more money in the pot?

KardKlub said:
as played call, but you should have just called his original raise on the river.

+ your 3 bet is so low, if you think your ahead and you want a two pair hand to call then why dont you think your ahead now?

people dont 3 bet bluff /4 bet bluff the river at this level. just as a note.
Click to expand...

Why should I just call the original raise on the river? Do you think he shows up with JT 80% of the time here? What about the two pair/ sets that he could be raising for value?

With the 3 bet on the river I was going off the pot size more than the size of the raise. A pot size bet here is only $5.

cjatud2012 said:
Hmm.

Well let's see, pre-flop he's probably limping pretty wide, let's go all pairs 22-JJ (QQ-AA would probably raise, although maybe they don't), Ax, all broadway, 54s+, 86o+, etc. What of that bets the flop and what of it checks? It depends on how passive he is, this guy is fairly aggressive so he probably bets all of his aces, 66-JJ, his 8x and 5x, maybe 76 or flush draws also, but those could get checked back too. He probably checks back his air too, although many players would fire their air here.

After he checks, the turn peels a 9, which completes 76 and gives draws to T6 and JT, so when he just calls our bet, based on what we thought he checked back on the flop he's calling with mostly draws I'd say. Which brings us to the river... I mean, it's not impossible for villain to have A9/AQ/99, flopped sets, etc. here, but you'd think those hands would be played a little bit faster, so those are more unlikely. Still though, it just seems to gross to flat when we're only afraid of one hand, so basically I'm not really sure. :D I probably would have 3-bet the river also, btw.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the answer, sounds like you got yourself in the same pickle that I was in during the hand.
 
atlantafalcons0

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stubzy11 said:
JT every time? Shouldn't we fold then? If we are certain we are beat why put more money in the pot?

.
Click to expand...

It's just the most likely hand you're up against.
 
KardKlub

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stubzy11 said:
JT every time? Shouldn't we fold then? If we are certain we are beat why put more money in the pot?



Why should I just call the original raise on the river? Do you think he shows up with JT 80% of the time here? What about the two pair/ sets that he could be raising for value?

With the 3 bet on the river I was going off the pot size more than the size of the raise. A pot size bet here is only $5.



Thanks for the answer, sounds like you got yourself in the same pickle that I was in during the hand.
Click to expand...

You dont have the nuts and he might. You have no good read on this player to stack off so why not keep it small and build a profile rather than it costing you a fortune to gather the same piece of info.

Poker takes time, you need to know what a player is capable of. micro stakes or high stakes, everyone thinks there better than everyone else, but no one takes notes to help reads become easier to spot.

I bet when you played the hand you just clicked it back so fast without thinking. We've all been there and we will all be there again. Limit these losses to become a good player.
 
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