$10 NLHE Full Ring: When (should I?) have shoved it in here?

R

RAFC24

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$10 NL HE Full Ring: When (should I?) have shoved it in here?

I feel I should have shoved at the flop here...should I have?

No stats on villain, this was a rush poker table

MP3: $12.04 (120.4 bb)
CO: $3.46 (34.6 bb)
BTN: $8.36 (83.6 bb)
SB: $12.58 (125.8 bb)
BB: $6.97 (69.7 bb)
UTG+1: $4 (40 bb)
UTG+2: $10.60 (106 bb)
Hero (MP1): $17.57 (175.7 bb)
MP2: $11.85 (118.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with A
spade4.gif
K
spade4.gif

2 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, 4 folds, SB raises to $1.15, BB folds, Hero calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.40) K
diamond4.gif
T
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9
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.40, SB raises to $9.60, Hero calls $7.20

Turn: ($21.60) Q
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
SB bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

River: ($21.80) 4
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(2 players)
SB bets $1.73 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.73

Results: $25.26 pot ($1.68 rake)
Final Board: K
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T
spade4.gif
9
spade4.gif
Q
diamond4.gif
4
diamond4.gif


Thanks
 
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Double-A thanks for the reply but can you elaborate?

Is it because top pair and nut flush draw will split the money all the time over the long run?

Thanks
 
Double-A

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Double-A thanks for the reply but can you elaborate?

Whups... Didn't see the rush part, never played it.

For normal $10NL FR, we're shoving here because:

1) We are going to get called by EVERYTHING.
2) The pot is big and we are probably ahead.
3) If we aren't ahead, we've got outs at close to the right price.
4) We certainly can't fold and "coolers" could come on the turn.
5) It's $10NL and we are going to get called by everything.
 
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RAFC24

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Thanks for replying double-a,

Let me see if I have the math right.

To call 7.20 into a 14.40$ pot is giving me exactly 2 to 1 odds.

Outs to the winning hand given the board isnt paired.

9 flush outs, 2 kings to trips, would a pair of aces help here? Lets discount the 3 remaining aces to one ace, total of 12 outs.

12 cards that can help out of 31 cards left gives me about 2.5 to 1 odds which is slightly unfavorable but ok since we are drawing to the nut flush, likely and it looks like stacks are all going to the middle by the river.

Guys please let me know if I have the math right here. I think I do.

Thanks
 
cjatud2012

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Thanks for replying double-a,

Let me see if I have the math right.

To call 7.20 into a 14.40$ pot is giving me exactly 2 to 1 odds.

Outs to the winning hand given the board isnt paired.

9 flush outs, 2 kings to trips, would a pair of aces help here? Lets discount the 3 remaining aces to one ace, total of 12 outs.

12 cards that can help out of 31 cards left gives me about 2.5 to 1 odds which is slightly unfavorable but ok since we are drawing to the nut flush, likely and it looks like stacks are all going to the middle by the river.

Guys please let me know if I have the math right here. I think I do.

Thanks

You're pretty much playing for his stack at this point, so I would add what he's got left behind to the amount of his raise when factoring these odds. That means you've actually got less than 2:1, for what it's worth.

As far as calculating your equity, what's his range? If we're looking at a narrow range of 99+ and AK, we have 63% equity according to Pokerstove, which means we need to push.
 
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Hi cjatud,

Im not too concerned about his range here, given im drawing to the nut flush, top set or top pair, or top two pair.

If I add the rest of his stack to the pot, it actually gives me slightly more than 2 to 1 oddsif I calculate it correctly.
 
cjatud2012

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Hi cjatud,

Im not too concerned about his range here, given im drawing to the nut flush, top set or top pair, or top two pair.

If I add the rest of his stack to the pot, it actually gives me slightly more than 2 to 1 oddsif I calculate it correctly.

Well, the size of his raise would then be $7.20 plus the $1.83 left in his stack, or $9.03. There's $7.20 already in the pot. So you're effectively calling $9.03 to win $9.03 + $7.20, which gives you approximately 1.8:1 odds.

Also, his range is important, because not all of your outs are clean if he holds certain hands. For example, a K would give you trips (not a set), but would give him a full house if he held TT, 99, KT, etc. In order to account for this, we must compare our hand to an entire range of hands.
 
slycbnew

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There's $7.20 in the pot when it's our turn to act, as cj says. If we shove, we're putting in another $9 to win a total of $16.20 (of course he's going to call, it'd be insane for him not to, so we have no FE), and we have 40% equity against KK+. Not too shabby.
 
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There's $7.20 in the pot when it's our turn to act, as cj says. If we shove, we're putting in another $9 to win a total of $16.20 (of course he's going to call, it'd be insane for him not to, so we have no FE), and we have 40% equity against KK+. Not too shabby.

Thank you for your replies gentlemen and your precision regarding my math.

Slycbnew, meaning we only need to win this type of pot 40% of the time to at least break even therefor giving us 1.5:1 odds which are lower than our pot odds of about 1.8:1 so its an automatic call?

I'm just trying to understand this inside out.

Thanks gents
 
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Yes. Get it in when he raises you. At worst he has flopped the straight. If he has not, and the third S comes off, he will most likely give up on the hand. I play rush too. I don't think the lack of history with the player has any change in this spot. Look at it like this. You have TPTK, NFdraw, and broadway draw. The only hand you are very concerned with him having is QJ. Ship it, hit NF, collect his stack.
 
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I guess I should have said that I realize you proly did not win the hand, so yo are questioning that if you shove he might fold. You have to understand that in almost any circumstance, you are going to be a fav to win in this spot.
 
trewtrew

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lets be real here - at $10NL he's making this play with a bunch of hands way worse than u. There shouldn't be such a heated discussion about odds - you probably have the best hand.
 
slycbnew

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Thank you for your replies gentlemen and your precision regarding my math.

Slycbnew, meaning we only need to win this type of pot 40% of the time to at least break even therefor giving us 1.5:1 odds which are lower than our pot odds of about 1.8:1 so its an automatic call?

I'm just trying to understand this inside out.

Thanks gents

lets be real here - at $10NL he's making this play with a bunch of hands way worse than u. There shouldn't be such a heated discussion about odds - you probably have the best hand.

Ah, what I meant was that the worst case scenario was that we're a 40% dog - I don't expect us to be that big of a dog, like trewtrew I expect that we're going to see, say, KQ/worse pp's and draws a decent amount of the time - so even in the worst case, it's a reasonable shove for the pot odds, and in a normal case it's a no brainer. I'm actually expecting to be a slight favorite here against his range (didn't pokerstove it, it's a gut reaction).
 
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Stu_Ungar

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personally id put him on a set of tens or pair of aces or AK here.

HIs 3-bet would usually indicate a high ace or pocket pair.

His CR would usually be a set, 2 pair or a strong flush draw.

As we hold the AKs he cant have a strong flush draw. As there is no ace on the board, he is unlikely to have 2 pair, which really leaves pocket pairs in his 3-bet range. TT is a likely candidate.

AK again could easily play out like this.

AA again fit the preflop action.

KQs is another candidate that fits the preflop action.

Anything else is esentially a bluff. He could have something like JQs but that really means he was 3-bet bluffing preflop.

So on the flop you have 57% equity, I think he would reraise with 100% of this range. So at that point you should shove calling the flop is kind of silly because you have so little left behind that you have to keep calling down
 
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