$10 NLHE Full Ring: Are We Ever Folding Here?

$10 NL HE Full Ring: Are We Ever Folding Here?

I don't remember villian playing exceptionally stupid in any hands before this. Obviously the flop is horrible for us, but he keeps stringing us along with half pot sized bets. Raising is not an option but folding didn't seem right either. The river brings the best (and worst) card in the deck, especially after he shoves into us. This screamed boat to me, but can we ever fold?

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HAND #1
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poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (UTG+1): $10.55 (105.5 bb)
MP1: $5.45 (54.5 bb)
MP2: $12.60 (126 bb)
MP3: $6.85 (68.5 bb)
CO: $14.95 (149.5 bb)
BTN: $7.85 (78.5 bb)
SB: $13.05 (130.5 bb)
BB: $2.30 (23 bb)
UTG: $5.25 (52.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with A:heart: A:diamond:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 3 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, SB calls $0.45, BB folds

Flop: ($1.60) Q:diamond: K:diamond: Q:club: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $1, SB folds, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($3.60) T:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80

River: ($7.20) J:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11.65 and is all-in, Hero ???

Villain must suspect a straight, but he's not worried about it, so I think he does have a boat. Hmmm, maybe he wants you to think that. ???

I'd pay off a smaller bet, but probably not this one.

I'm confused - why is the flop obviously horrible for us?

Hands with a queen in them are only a small part of his range - we can be up against straight or flush draws, underpairs, AK, KJ... we're ahead of all of those. Really we're only worried about KK and Qx. Hands we beat almost certainly make up a bigger portion of villain's range. If we're ahead of a made hand we want value, and if villain's drawing we want to charge him to do so.

I'd probably have lead the flop, then reassessed based on villain's response.

As played... bleh, I hate where we're at. Villain can't be putting us on a queen when we just called the flop and turn. We're probably splitting at best.

I would say no fold. Looks like he may have AK or AX diamonds at best maybe just the lone Q I would call this 90/10.

OzExorcist said:

I'm confused - why is the flop obviously horrible for us?

Hands with a queen in them are only a small part of his range - we can be up against straight or flush draws, underpairs, AK, KJ... we're ahead of all of those. Really we're only worried about KK and Qx. Hands we beat almost certainly make up a bigger portion of villain's range. If we're ahead of a made hand we want value, and if villain's drawing we want to charge him to do so.

I'd probably have lead the flop, then reassessed based on villain's response.

As played... bleh, I hate where we're at. Villain can't be putting us on a queen when we just called the flop and turn. We're probably splitting at best.

Click to expand...

+1, perfectly said.