$10 NLHE Full Ring: unknown villain - bluff potential?

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Lofwyr

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$10 NL HE Full Ring: unknown villain - bluff potential?

poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $6.45
SB: $2.75
BB: $9.45
UTG: $10.00
UTG+1: $10.80
UTG+2: $4.10
MP1: $12.55
Hero (MP2): $12.95
CO: $18.70

UTG posts a big blind ($0.10)

Pre Flop: ($0.25) Hero is MP2 with A K
UTG checks, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.40, UTG+1 calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.65) 9 K 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.30, UTG calls $2.30, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($6.75) A (2 players)
UTG bets $7.20 all in, Hero folds

So, a few things. Villain #1 (UTG) was brand new and I had never played a hand with him before. I leaned slightly towards the crazy/loose side though, as they were too impatient to wait 1 hand to post their BB. Villain #2 likes to splash around and make little defensive bets.

I think I could have raised a bit more pre...to 6 or 7x bb instead of 5x. On the flop I'm pretty sure raising is correct, but I think I should have potted it. Flat calling has some merit (a little pot control) but it seems negligible compared to a raise.

Slight further read on villain #1 -> his call on the flop was so quick I get the feeling he had the "call any" button checked. Slightly more weight to the idea he called with a draw.

In the end though, I'm really torn on whether folding the river was correct. Slightly under 2:1 pot odds, but after thinking I just didn't think i'd see a bluff/pair+draw often enough. Am I not giving donks enough credit for crazy?

Opinions? Is this a spot I should make a crying turn call at more readily? Other spots I could have made a better play?
 
white_lytning

white_lytning

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Just based on that it looks like a good fold. Its a spot where a lot of people lose to a set or the flush when the 2nd pair hits like that even though it doesn't really improve your hand relative your opponent.

Online without any reads, or time spent with the guy its a tough spot but I think the fold is right. I think the hand plays more like a set than a flush draw. Pre flop hes probly not calling under the gun with a draw that isn't ace high, unless its 7 8 of spades. A pair of 6s or 9s would limp call pre flop and often bet out and then push when the flush comes to push you off a possible 1 card flush.

If they make the flush I dont think too many people are pushing all in there either. Too early and you have shown too much strength, easier to let you bet. Its more of a "i'm scared lets end the thinking now" type bet. From that hand, IMO, A set or AK I think. Not many hands you can beat that would make that play.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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I probably call here because of how wierdly the hand is played.

A set would normally Check/raise on a board like that not min donk call.

When the flush comes in, both the ace and king are acounted for which removes almost all flush hands from a standard UTG range (unless he is loose UTG)

Maybe he could have QJs but thats it really.

If he has a flush you still have 6 outs.

If UTG has a normal PFR UTG and if he has shown before that he can bluff or even if I had seen him get his stack in a couple of times during the session but hadnt seen what cards he was doing it with then I would call.

If UTG is very loose or has been quite passive during the session then I fold.

I would have folded to any reraise on the flop.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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A hand like KQo with the Qs might play like this.
 
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Lofwyr

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One thing to notice (which did affect my read and the range I could give villain) is that UTG posted. He didn't call, but jumped to post from UTG instead of waiting a hand to play in turn. So his initial bb can be ATC.

That said, stuff like KQo with Qs do make sense. Tough spot against a total unknown.

*After playing a couple orbits with the guy, I know I would have liked to call...but as in OP I'm more concerned with how it plays against an unknown.
 
Stu_Ungar

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If he posted then he is a bad player.

This means he could be playing any 2 suited cards UTG. Bad players have a wider range. All suited BW cards, suited connectors etc.

The call on the flop looks like he is drawing to a flush.

Its also a very scary board so he is less likely to make a move.

He could have something like 56s and be shoving there to protect because another flush card could counterfeit his flush.

If he is loose then you have to put more flush cards in his range and expect him to peel draws a lot.

That dosent mean he has a flush 100% of the time, but his total range shifts towards flushes and hands like KJs KQs so I think folding is correct.
 
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