$10 NLHE Full Ring: TT 3bet pot multi-way turned set on tough board

$10 NL HE Full Ring: TT 3bet pot multi-way turned set on tough board

MP Open raiser is a decent regular playing multi-tables
17/11/6 over 150 hands

BTN is fishy
33/15/1 over 150 hands

I'm playing a little tighter then usual on this table
9/5/4 over 80 hands (have 0% 3-bet so far on this table)



Any comments on 3-bet? flop check? turn call? river call?

I think a turn raise would be the only thing I could have done differently...

Comments/ideas?

full tilt poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 402686
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
BB: $2.34
UTG: $10.26
UTG+1: $2.14
MP1: $4.38
MP2: $10.00
Hero (CO): $14.35
BTN: $2.84
SB: $2.00
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with T :club: T :spade:
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.20, BTN calls $1.20, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.80
Flop: ($3.75) 7 :diamond: J :club: Q :club: (3 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: ($3.75) T :heart: (3 players)
MP2 bets $1, Hero calls $1, BTN raises to $1.64 all in, MP2 calls $0.64, Hero calls $0.64
River: ($8.67) 4 :club: (3 players - 1 is all in)
MP2 bets $3, Hero calls $3

raise the turn, shove the river

baudib1 said:

raise the turn, shove the river

Click to expand...

this

Completely agree w raising the turn - his turn bet is so small that you really need to pot the turn rather than 2.5x or 3x.

Why are we intending to shove the river if he calls the turn raise?

I can agree w/ a big raise on the turn.

However, as played, should I still shove over his $3 river bet?

TimmyOtool said:

I can agree w/ a big raise on the turn.

However, as played, should I still shove over his $3 river bet?

Click to expand...

What range are we giving Villain? Flat 3bet oop pf, check flop, silly small turn bet, silly small river bet. To flat 3bet oop pf, exclude KK+, pretty much looking at AK, maybe AQ, 99, JJ, and QQ I think. Check flop doesn't mean anything, could be weak, could be check to raiser - a good player would probably donk bet QQ and JJ, though, given the drawy board. Small bet on the turn could be a blocking bet w 99, could be a value bet w AK, QQ, or JJ - or it could be an attempt to steal the pot cuz you didn't bet the flop. As played, the river bet looks like a value bet or another blocking bet, I have a tough time distinguishing them at this limit.

We're a little ahead of the above range, and shoving may fold sets out - but our play isn't entirely consistent w AK and Villain's play is, since we didn't raise the turn w a fd on the board, so I'm not so sure it'll fold out sets.

I think this is pretty close, I don't think we're so far ahead of his range and not sure there's enough FE to make shoving the right play, but I don't hate it.

My question above about why we'd shove if he calls a turn raise is based on what his range would have to be to call a turn raise, I don't like shoving the river if we raise turn, he calls, and leads the river.

Let's assume he's a decent regular. He has to know hero is a tight player and button is a fish. He should know to bet all his sets on the flop and he'd probably bet his flush draws. If he has AK he has to bet the turn harder and you'd think he'd bet more than half the pot with a flush on the river. I can't see how we're not good here the vast majority of the time.

If he's a decent player, he's also opening more than 11% from MP2.

baudib1 said:

Let's assume he's a decent regular. He has to know hero is a tight player and button is a fish. He should know to bet all his sets on the flop and he'd probably bet his flush draws. If he has AK he has to bet the turn harder and you'd think he'd bet more than half the pot with a flush on the river. I can't see how we're not good here the vast majority of the time.

As played, I don't necessarily disagree - I think it's a little closer, but I agree we're ahead as played. However, if we raise the turn and he calls, then leads the river, what range do you give him that we're ahead of?

If he's a decent player, he's also opening more than 11% from MP2.

Of course he is, his opening range is probably closer to 18%. But he isn't calling 3bets oop w that range if he's a decent player, that should reduce to about 4% or so (and prob isn't the top of the range, KK+, which would auto 4bet). Let's assume his range is wider than I think it is - call it AJ+,77-QQ, which would be around 6% or 7% - then go back to my above question, what range would he have to have in order to call a raise on the turn then lead the river, and how much of that range are we ahead of.

I'm actually more comfortable shoving the river in this scenario if I assume he is NOT a decent player and has a high AF, cuz then AQ/KQ/QJ/QT/77/99, complete air, and a few other hands look like more substantial possibilities to me.

Click to expand...

...

With your read on villain, I don't like the preflop 3-bet at all, unless it's in your gameplan to 3-bet him very wide and then get it in with hands like this one if you get 4-bet.

On the turn, there's no reason to just flat. By calling, you're not getting paid more by any hand that you beat, and you're in fact getting paid quite a bit less by a lot of them (e.g hands that will at least call a raise because they have a pair + draw) because they'll shut down on the river when called.

On the river... Meh, it depends whether I think QJo/QT/JT is in his range or not. If they are, shove, otherwise call. AK and bigger sets make up 22 combos, but that's offset by two pair hands if he can have QJ/JT. He might be making small value/blocking bets with AJ or KQ but intending to fold to a shove, but I think it's safe to assume QJ is paying off. Whether or not he'd flat a 3-bet with that OOP is up to you to decide.

Thanks everyone for their replies.

As played after original raise flats my 3-bet OOP i'm putting his range at something like (AJs-AK, and 88-JJ)
I felt that since the fish flat calls my 3-bet, the original raise might have picked up some more odds to hit whatever hand he has.

I really felt that a turn raise would have been better as played. If he flats on the turn, just call river lead sounds about right.

If the turn was raised and he ships all in, its pretty standard call? Were behind AK, and crushed by QQ-JJ, but ahead of combo draws?

So far as played, I don't think a shove on the river has a lot of value... We'll get value from QJ-JT, 77. But would get snapped by everything else. A bigger set most likely won't fold. Same with AK and all flushes. I don't mind the flat here against this particular villian.

Anyways. Thanks for analysis all.

MP ended up w/ 77
BTN ended up w/ AA