Originally Posted by TimmyOtool
I can agree w/ a big raise on the turn.
However, as played, should I still shove over his $3 river bet?
What range are we giving Villain? Flat 3bet oop pf, check flop, silly small turn bet, silly small river bet. To flat 3bet oop pf, exclude KK+, pretty much looking at AK, maybe AQ, 99, JJ, and QQ I think. Check flop doesn't mean anything, could be weak, could be check to raiser - a good player would probably donk bet QQ and JJ, though, given the drawy board. Small bet on the turn could be a blocking bet w 99, could be a value bet w AK, QQ, or JJ - or it could be an attempt to steal the pot cuz you didn't bet the flop. As played, the river bet looks like a value bet or another blocking bet, I have a tough time distinguishing them at this limit.
We're a little ahead of the above range, and shoving may fold sets out - but our play isn't entirely consistent w AK and Villain's play is, since we didn't raise the turn w a fd on the board, so I'm not so sure it'll fold out sets.
I think this is pretty close, I don't think we're so far ahead of his range and not sure there's enough FE to make shoving the right play, but I don't hate it.
My question above about why we'd shove if he calls a turn raise is based on what his range would have to be to call a turn raise, I don't like shoving the river if we raise turn, he calls, and leads the river.