$10 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK vs. Aggro Villain, Check-Minraised On Turn

mrmonkey

mrmonkey

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 14/9/4

stats over 36 hands.

Does Beluga Theorem apply to a minraise and a villain with an AF of 4?

Full Tilt - $0.10 NL RUSH - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $17.05
UTG: $3.95
UTG+1: $12.11
MP: $10.00
MP+1: $12.01
Hero (LP): $10.00
CO: $16.35
BTN: $1.26
SB: $17.92

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has J:diamond: A:heart:

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, SB calls $0.25, fold

Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) J:club: 4:spade: 2:diamond:
SB checks, Hero bets $0.35, SB calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.40, 2 players) 9:club:
SB checks, Hero bets $0.65, SB raises to $1.30, Hero calls $0.65

River: ($4.00, 2 players) Q:heart:
SB bets $2.00, hero ?
 
mrmonkey

mrmonkey

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I just noticed my bet sizing was kind of stupid here, would would probably fire 2/3 pot on both streets in retrospect. Disregarding that, what do we think about turn minraise and river?
 
No Brainer

No Brainer

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AF means basically nothing over 30 hands. It takes quite a long time to become reliable, somewhere around 500 hands you may be getting a pretty accurate number.

Anything below ~250 hands and you can get a more accurate decription of the player through their vpip/pfr gap (The higher the gap the more passive they are). Someone playing 14/9 is not an aggressive player but I am always stumped with min raises. You get such great odds to call but we kill ourselves on later streets.

Once you call the turn we must call the river as it hardly changes anything and again it is a small bet.
 
JOEBOB69

JOEBOB69

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This is almost always a set here,you have to call i think though since you called the turn min raise and given the river amount.
 
cjatud2012

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Baluga?

I mean, this is probably never KJ/QJ/TT. So a fold is probably prudent, although I'm a station and am probably calling this :eek:
 
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