$10 NLHE Full Ring: Top 2 pair facing 3-street

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siwanat99

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pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players

(UTG) [VPIP: 17 | PFR: 9 | AF: 2 ]: $17.90 (179 bb)
(UTG+1): $12.78 (128 bb)
Hero (MP): $10.00 (100 bb)
(MP+1): $17.38 (174 bb)
(LP): $5.11 (51 bb)
(CO): $10.00 (100 bb)
(BU): $21.05 (211 bb)
(SB): $11.45 (115 bb)
(BB): $22.16 (222 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with A♥ Q♥
(UTG) raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero (MP) calls $0.30, 6 players fold

Flop: ($0.75) T♠ Q♦ 3♠ (2 players)
(UTG) bets $0.55, Hero (MP) calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.85) A♣ (2 players)
(UTG) bets $1.77, Hero (MP) calls $1.77

River: ($5.39) 9♣ (2 players)
(UTG) bets $3.43, Hero (MP) Call

Total pot: $12.25 (Rake: $0.55)

How to play this hand?
 
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quant1986

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Preflop:

Calling/3bet at low frequency are probably both fine.

Flop:

Calling is fine.

Turn:
Villain turn bet is quite polarized here and I think raising is not a good option and this could keep some bluff in.

River:
I would expect villain check-call most Ax, even AQs and villains can have all the nuts on this board. Could villain bluff JJ here or even KsQs? I think some would but villain is more passive type from PFR and AF stats and you may need to adjust. But I guess I would still call unless the sample size is large enough
 
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fundiver199

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I think, you played the hand fine. Maybe you could fold preflop, when a 9% PFR open UTG at full ring, and you are third to act, but it cant be a big mistake to call either. Postflop I dont see, how you can get away, when you improve to top two. A 9% PFR likely dont open KJ UTG not even KJs. So you only lose to 5 combos of sets. The only question therefore is, if there is value in raising and getting it in? And I think, its close. He could have 8 combos of AK, but I am not sure, he always bet those with this sizing. So I probably also play it safe and go for the just call down option.
 
tame4g

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Very reasonable call, you beat all of his bricked FD bluffs, one pair hands (AK likely takes this line), and only lose to a few hands: KJ is unlikely with his PFR, especially from UTG. AA and QQ are also unlikely since there are only 1 combo of each he can have. This plausibly leaves 99, 33, and TT which you just have to pay off if he has. I still think I expect to see AKss or AJss here though.
 
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fundiver199

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This plausibly leaves 99, 33, and TT which you just have to pay off if he has.

I dont even think, he can have 99 or 33 here. 33 is a rather loose open UTG at full ring, and I dont expect it to be included in his range, when his PFR is only 9%. And I also dont think, someone like this turns 99 into a dubble barrel bluff and almost pots the turn. I think, that turn sizing scream value especially from a tight player like this. But yeah. If he does have a set, regardless which one it is, then this is just one of those annoying cooler spots, where we have to pay the man his money.
 
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siwanat99

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So It's standard call right? If he bet pot river I would fold. I don't know him much so I hope to see AK in this hand
A 9% PFR likely dont open KJ UTG not even KJs.
I'm curious how can I know what range in 9% PFR and when they fold to 3bet 80% what hands that they will call 3B. is there a software tools
 
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fundiver199

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So It's standard call right? If he bet pot river I would fold. I don't know him much so I hope to see AK in this hand

I'm curious how can I know what range in 9% PFR

Basically you start with the range, which a standard TAG like a 17/14 would open at full ring, and then you remove the worst hands, if PFR is lower than 14 and add some more hands, if it is higher than 14. Of course it also matter, how positionally aware someone is, but its very safe to assume, that a 9% PFR is opening less hands from any position than a standard TAG. You also assume a linear range, so if he can have KJ, then he can also have KQ and AJ.
 
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fundiver199

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and when they fold to 3bet 80% what hands that they will call 3B.

If someone is only raising before the flop 9% of the time but then folding to 3-bets 80% of the time, the very first thing, you need to check, is the sample size. Often it will be 4 folds out of 5 opportunities, which could just be a result of variance.

You also want to check, if you are looking at total fold to 3-bet or fold to 3-bet after raising, since these are different numbers. Total fold to 3-bet also include any situation, where the pot was 3-bet, before the action even got to you, so that number will inherently be high for everyone. Especially so at full ring, where a lot of players not yet involved in the action might fold to a 3-bet, and then the original raiser called.
 
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80abukaH

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Hand looks fine based on the given info.

The sample of hands is really key for further analysis.
 
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