$10 NLHE Full Ring: Should I have raised the flop?

Merge, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
MP3: $5.70 (57 bb)
CO: $11.36 (113.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $12.88 (128.8 bb)
SB: $2.90 (29 bb)
BB: $10.04 (100.4 bb)
UTG+1: $7.55 (75.5 bb)
UTG+2: $7.69 (76.9 bb)
MP1: $15.72 (157.2 bb)
MP2: $4.49 (44.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Qd Kh

4 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.40, CO calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.65) Jc 4c Td (3 players)
MP3 bets $0.82, CO folds, Hero calls $0.82

Turn: ($3.29) Qs (2 players)
MP3 bets $2.19
Hero folds

Results: $3.29 pot ($0.16 rake)
Final Board: Jc 4c Td Qs
MP3 mucked and won $3.13 ($1.81 net)

The villain's stats here are VPIP:91, PFR:0, AF:4. This is only over 11 hands though so it's too small a sample size to be much of a factor.

I was thrown off on the flop when the villain came out betting. I was considering raising and I probably should have with my OESD and 2 overcards. I'm assuming if he had a strong hand, he would have bet larger to discourage any draws. With the 2/3 pot bet on the turn, I decided to just fold, I didn't want to lose my stack over top pair. Should I have played this one differently? Even though my sample size is small, the fact that he's been limping in with 91% of these first 11 hands makes me wonder if I shouldn't have given him so much credit.

You wouldn't have lost your stack because he only has 57BB to start with.

I know the sample size is very small, but those stats and the limping means likely fish. And with top pair + good kicker + straight draw I want to shove over this turn bet.

Use a HH converter next time, it makes it easier to read. I use this one:

http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

Never folding that turn against a huge fish.

Why are you even calling on the flop if you're going to fold turn when one of the best cards that can come up for you comes up?

(this isn't me saying fold flop, it's me saying don't fold turn)

I flat flop as well. Villain is just so damn loose and is likely passive he is not going to be bluffing or folding enough to make the raise good. That and he isn't fully stacked meaning we can get his stack comfortably when we hit without having to raise.

When a passive player suddenly gets all aggro on you, the alarm bells should sound. Then it comes down to what kind of range you put him to. With that VPIP, and your hand and outs, I am calling the turn all day long with such high equity [83%] at the turn.

Tino11 said:

When a passive player suddenly gets all aggro on you, the alarm bells should sound. Then it comes down to what kind of range you put him to. With that VPIP, and your hand and outs, I am calling the turn all day long with such high equity [83%] at the turn.

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Sorry, but how did you work this out?

meh villain is a terrible fish by the looks, just put his few pennies left in on the turn.

I dont think we can even call him a really passive fish, we have 10 hands and hes betting into us, could easily be one of them really passive preflop but idiots postflop.

"Sorry, but how did you work this out"? asks Aldito

I have no idea, I am just a humble cave dweller, so why don't you educate me?

So you plucked it out of thin air?

lol

Flat flop. Don't fold turn.

WVHillbilly said:

Flat flop. Don't fold turn.

Click to expand...

+1

micromachine said:

So you plucked it out of thin air?

Click to expand...

Just For Men can help you with that problem, it did a decent job for me when I started losing chest hair.

Oh sorry, you said thin air, my bad

I do appologise, I am a Geordie [adopted at birth] and I speak a different language to most, so I don't expect you to understand my ramblings, which is kind of sad as I often have nothing coherent to say.

I shove the turn. You could even raise the flop and shove the turn. Not folding versus somebody like this who appears to be bad and I have TP plus a straight draw. It's a value shove. I expect to be ahead a lot actually.