$10 NLHE Full Ring: Should I call here?

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RAFC24

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$10 NL HE Full Ring: Should I call here?

I am on the button with J9 of diamonds
My stack: 10.05$
Villain:2.51$ (no stats)

Villain raises to .40$ UTG
2 others call and so do I with a hand with a lot of potential like J9s and I am on the button.

Pot:1.75$

Flop: 9h 8s Qh

Villain bets 1 dollar
2 others fold

Pot odds before my call: 2.75:1

I decide to call for the following reasons even though I dont have the pot odds for my gutshot.

Please tell me if my math is wrong here here or whatnot.

I figure I have 2 outs to the set, 4 outs to the strasight (the tens) and 3 outs to the jack for two pair for a total of 9 outs to the winning hand.

Villain raised UTG so I figured him for a good pair.

full ring there are 31 cards left, 9 of which likely give me the winning hand for odds of roughly 3.5:1. At that point I didnt have the pot odds but i made ther call anyways as it was close.

Turn:8d
Villain bets all in 1.11$

Pot odds: 4.38:1

the pot is now paying me roughly 4:1 so I called and hit one of my outs on the river to take the pot.

Villain had AQo

What do you think of my call on the turn and on the river??? Was it justified? Do you think i made a fair implied odds call? I mean I still had a pair of nines and NEVER would have called to hit my gutshot if I didnt have at least a pair.

Thanks
 
Sysvr4

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I figure I have 2 outs to the set, 4 outs to the strasight (the tens) and 3 outs to the jack for two pair for a total of 9 outs to the winning hand.

The only thing I think you overlooked is that you have to discount some of your outs because they make you a really nice second-best hand. The Jacks in particular here I would discount to 1-2 outs and I'd mentally deduct a T as well for when I run up against the better straight.

PF I play it the same. Any moment now there will be people along to tell you to fold this. Don't, for exactly the reasons you mentioned: implied and position.

On the flop, when it's down to me and a shortstacked villain, I probably just put him all in if I want to continue the hand. I figure I've got the best hand a reasonable proportion of the time, he may even fold some aces that missed, and I'm only a bit light on odds when he has something like AQ, JJ, etc and the fold equity probably makes it about even money.
 
Stu_Ungar

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You have less outs.

You don't have implied odds.

Some of the outs you have included make flushes and straights.

So 3 outs only to the straight, and 2 outs to 2pair.

Of course, the J gives you 2 pair but puts on a very obvious straight on board, so this would likely kill any action after it hits so maybe just could one out to 2 pair (discount)

So really you have around 5 outs plus second pair.

That gives you around 45% equity against a normal UTG range.

His c-bet could be a stab or could indicate a narrower range as the pot iis multiway, but as he is so short stacked, I think the better option is to shove here. If he is drawing to the flush, you are ahead, if he hits the Q you are behind with some outs, but with 45% equity AGAINST THIS STACK SIZE you are better off getting the money in than trying to draw (plus he might fold!)
 
Steveg1976

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Playing a hand like J9 of Diamonds from the button for implied odds is great but you don't have implied odds when villian only has 25bb.

If you called becuase the other players in the hand had deeper stacks that is fine but you have to understand that as soon as the short stacked villian bets the flop he is pot committed. You are not playing for one more bet you are now for his stack. If you called his $1.00 flop bet are you really going to fold the turn when he has less than a dollar left? either shove or fold the flop. I would include in the villians range over played AK and possibly AQ so shoving is fine (I think) especially if you think there is a chance he will fold (unlikely though).
 
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Tx for the reply

Also quick off-topic question, what do player stats mean?

Does a 30/25/20 mean a player gets involved in 30% of hands, raises 25% of the time and calls raises 20% of the time?

Thanks
 
Stu_Ungar

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Tx for the reply

Also quick off-topic question, what do player stats mean?

Does a 30/25/20 mean a player gets involved in 30% of hands, raises 25% of the time and calls raises 20% of the time?

Thanks

usually it means 30% vpip (gets involved) 25% PFR (raises 25% of hands) and 20 AF (his agression factor is 20 so he raises 20 times more than he calls / folds .. takes a long time to converge, but you can quickly see that this guy primarily raises)
 
Stu_Ungar

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Playing a hand like J9 of Diamonds from the button for implied odds is great but you don't have implied odds when villian only has 25bb.

If you called becuase the other players in the hand had deeper stacks that is fine but you have to understand that as soon as the short stacked villian bets the flop he is pot committed. You are not playing for one more bet you are now for his stack. If you called his $1.00 flop bet are you really going to fold the turn when he has less than a dollar left? either shove or fold the flop. I would include in the villians range over played AK and possibly AQ so shoving is fine (I think) especially if you think there is a chance he will fold (unlikely though).

Yep!

You should expect him to c-bet and that c-bet to be pot committing, therefore preflop you should only enter with a range that does better than break even preflop (i.e. if you wouldnt 3-bet it preflop, then you shouldnt call because post flop you will be playing against a villian who is pot committed on almost any flop and you DONT NOT HAVE IMPLIED ODDS)
 
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Tx a lot for the replies guys!
 
Stu_Ungar

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Stu what about adding the 2 outs to make my set on the turn if I hit my nines?

The 2 for the set are ok (sure it puts a FH on but it should be OK) but the straight and flush possibilities need to be heavily discounted because if you hit and then get action its likely your hand is not best therefore you are drawing to the best hand less often and so the way we take this into account is to discount outs.

So 2 for the set, 3 for the straight and only 1 for 2 pair so 6 outs in total, i think I said 5 but 5/6 that kind of region rather than 9 you thought.

But really you have to think of this as an extension of preflop, preflop against a shortstack you have to call with hands that beat their range, you do not have deep enough staacks to call and play implied odds (you will miss and fold too often to make it back when you win the Short stack)

Post flop, if he plays a reasonably tight game then you have to expect a c-bet on virtually any flop and that c-bet is pot committing for him.

This brings you back to preflop, you canot call against a SS with a hand you wouldnt 3-bet against the same SS range.

Now we know that he is playing more than AA/KK so we dont tighten up that much, but position is not all that usefull in a pot with a pot committed villian so really we are looking at a range of JJ+ AK and we shove preflop, the SS likely calls and everyone else is likely to fold.

Usually when people (weak players call behind) they are playing pocket pairs and AX and will only continue if they hit postflop (as is exactly what happened) so against these players you cant call preflop expecting the SS to shove .. but then you play the rest multiway (because they are only continuing with made hands that beat you (sets and maybe AX).

So the mistake in this hand is preflop

FOLD!
 
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Haha, thanks a lot for your input on this hand Stu and others.

Allthough I still feel like with 3 others in the pot J9s is worth playing :)
 
Stu_Ungar

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Haha, thanks a lot for your input on this hand Stu and others.

Allthough I still feel like with 3 others in the pot J9s is worth playing :)

Not when the initial raiser is a SS and the others are weak fit or fold players .. you simply do not have the implied odds to get paid when you hit.
 
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