Originally Posted by RAFC24
Stu what about adding the 2 outs to make my set on the turn if I hit my nines?
The 2 for the set are ok (sure it puts a FH on but it should be OK) but the straight and flush possibilities need to be heavily discounted because if you hit and then get action its likely your hand is not best therefore you are drawing to the best hand less often and so the way we take this into account is to discount outs.
So 2 for the set, 3 for the straight and only 1 for 2 pair so 6 outs in total, i think I said 5 but 5/6 that kind of region rather than 9 you thought.
But really you have to think of this as an extension of preflop, preflop against a shortstack you have to call with hands that beat their range, you do not have deep enough staacks to call and play implied odds (you will miss and fold too often to make it back when you win the Short stack)
Post flop, if he plays a reasonably tight game then you have to expect a c-bet on virtually any flop and that c-bet is pot committing for him.
This brings you back to preflop, you canot call against a SS with a hand you wouldnt 3-bet against the same SS range.
Now we know that he is playing more than AA/KK so we dont tighten up that much, but position is not all that usefull in a pot with a pot committed villian so really we are looking at a range of JJ+ AK and we shove preflop, the SS likely calls and everyone else is likely to fold.
Usually when people (weak players call behind) they are playing pocket pairs and AX and will only continue if they hit postflop (as is exactly what happened) so against these players you cant call preflop expecting the SS to shove .. but then you play the rest multiway (because they are only continuing with made hands that beat you (sets and maybe AX).
So the mistake in this hand is preflop