$10 NLHE Full Ring: Set facing river 3bet on dry board

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mottotom27

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Hero (BTN): $11.98 (119.8 bb)
SB: $14.70 (147 bb)
BB: $21.99 (219.9 bb)
UTG+1: $12.94 (129.4 bb)
UTG+2: $8.89 (88.9 bb)
MP1: $10.40 (104 bb)
MP2: $12.26 (122.6 bb)
MP3: $13.60 (136 bb)
CO: $11.27 (112.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8:club: 8:heart:
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.20, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.55) 3:heart: A:club: 8:spade: (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.35, UTG+2 calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.25) T:club: (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

River: ($2.45) 7:heart: (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $1.20, Hero raises to $2.90, UTG+2 raises to $7.74 and is all-in, Hero ?

villain 0/0 over 13 hands. yea i know i should probably have raised turn. my main concern is on the river when he ships it. i only need 28% but it seems like he's gonna have AA and TT a LOT here. could he do this with 33 or AT, or would he just call my river raise? is he EVER bluffing here?
 
PCK

PCK

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I would 3bet`it preflop,and as you said raise the turn,now on the river in this spot i would probabily call,i can see here AT or 33
 
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baxre

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I think that its easy call. He can have A with high kicker or two pairs.
 
PokerSprout

PokerSprout

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3-betting pre-flop would be awful. 88 doesn't play well in a re-raised pot because too many over cards are likely to flop and negate your ability to realize value and/or equity, and being 4-bet by your opponent, unless he's a complete psychopath, is not a desirable outcome.

I would raise turn and happily call the river re-raise. If he check called the flop and lead turn with TT or J9 or 86, then he's got a lot more problems to worry about other than trying to cooler the best possible hand you can have given the action with some insanely lucky outcome. If he has AA, then you lose; but that's also a pretty odd line for anything. Just put your money in with your best possible hand and hopefully it works. Sometimes it won't, but that's poker a lot of the time.
 
suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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No need to 3bet pre flop. Raise the turn for value most definitely.

Now i guess we have to call this shove on the river. Our hand is simply too strong to fold in this spot. :cool:
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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it's a FOLD on the river.

Big oversize shove on the river is most times the nuts. Which will be a well disguised straight my friend. or a better set.

Often fish will shove the river thinking they getting the best value. But they ain't and losing value when their opponents fold.

********************


Wheres the re-raise on the turn btw? are we trying to trap our opponent to really just trap ourselves and also lose value in the hand? WTF
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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3-betting pre-flop would be awful. 88 doesn't play well in a re-raised pot because too many over cards are likely to flop and negate your ability to realize value and/or equity, and being 4-bet by your opponent, unless he's a complete psychopath, is not a desirable outcome.




Hmmm 3betting pre could work if you do it sparingly and have a tight image.

You sound like you just play the 2 cards you have. But you also have to think overs on the board like A and K ... Will also help us fold hands like TT and QQ...

Perceived range is important.


2 other aspects we need to look. What if our opponent folds a lot to 3bets ?? and he also opens too many hands at UTG I guess we don't have that information though.
 
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mottotom27

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ok so it seems the only thing unanimous here is the turn raise (i did specify in my initial post that i already knew i should have raised turn). preflop the only information we have is that villain hasn't played a hand yet in 13 hands. if anything, this small piece of info would lead me towards putting him on a tight range especially when he opens from EP, which is why i chose to call mainly with the intentions of setmining (but sometimes continuing on low card boards as well).

at first i quickly dismissed the idea of 3betting but now i'm thinking perhaps it does have some value as a semibluff in that we might be able to fold out better or hands with equity against us like KQ/AJ/99 etc. but it's still a questionable play imo

and everyone was agreeing with a call on the river until aces2win had to step in and spoil it ;) i'm really confused about the river. i mean if i was villain then i definitely would just call with top two or bottom set and not 3bet all in. If villain plays like me then it would make it a fold, but villain is basically unknown so it's hard to tell whether or not he overplays his hands or only 3bets the nuts. I disagree with the guy who suggested villain might 3bet with an AQ type hand, nobody does that!

Another factor to consider is that villain was tanking a LOT during the hand from start to finish. Especially on the river before he made the shove. Whether or not that's important idk.
 
Figaroo2

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Ok first off he has a fishy stack size and a fishy opening raise sizing so he is clearly not a reg .
You couldn't ask for a better flop so bet bigger here...How much do you think Ax or 33 is going to call here?! We should be thinking full pot as a minimum sizing on the flop. I mean we are just seeking to gii as soon as we can. If he has aces he's going to stack us here but set over set if you don't get stacked you ain't playing it right. We have no reason at all to suspect AA.
The turn doesn't change much he clearly still likes his hand and being fishy he could be doing this with any big ace hopefully AT.
The 7 doesn't change much, was he leading out on the turn with an oesd like J9 possible but unlikely. And a bigger flop bet would have chased away a holding like that.
Ok so there are more combos of 33 and Ax including 2pair than aces or unlikely TT so just gii there. imo the thing to take from this hand is your bet sizing and passivity.
 
Figaroo2

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Oh and calling with 88 is fine, the hand has too much value to throw away if you get 4 bet.
Id only consider 3 betting if there was a lot of squeezing going on.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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If your ever in a marginal spot as well... or felt like it was 50/50 just call $1.20? :) your getting the correct price.
 
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