$10 NLHE Full Ring: (Rush) - Turn Boat / What's our line?

Greetings all, first post!

Villain: 249 hands

11 VPIP / 9 PFR / 2.3 AF / 33% Afq / 75% Cbet Flop / 100% Cbet Turn

He delayed slightly before both actions.

Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

CO: $11.93 (119.3 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10.05 (100.5 bb)
SB: $2.35 (23.5 bb)
BB: $5.29 (52.9 bb)
UTG+1: $13.21 (132.1 bb)
UTG+2: $20.23 (202.3 bb)
MP1: $10 (100 bb)
MP2: $7.82 (78.2 bb)
MP3: $15.44 (154.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.55) (2 players)
MP1 bets $1, Hero ?

I would raise the turn to about $3 and would shove the river.

Is there any merit to just flat calling? Keeping in his bluffs & thin value bets? If he's got Qx, he'll be likely to value bet river anyway, which we can shove over. If we raise, his continuation range will be Qx/22 and everything else gets folded out, right?

I'm really unsure raising the turn is good, but i'm open to hear an argument for it.

What do you expect to get value from on the river other than Qx?

WVHillbilly said:

What do you expect to get value from on the river other than Qx?

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Not much, if anything. My point is, when we raise we fold out everything but Qx (which should value bet river anyway). But if we just flat, we at least give villain the chance to pull a big bluff or thin vbet worse (obv if he thin vbets worse OTR, he folds to a raise but we still gain an extra bet).

Your thoughts?

I don't think he folds everything but Qx (he doesn't have many Queens in his range other than AQ or QQ). He's a nit and nits don't like to fold what they perceive to be great hands even if your betting should let them know they're beaten. If you raise and he folds it's very likely he had a hand that he wouldn't have bet again on the river anyway.

WVHillbilly said:

I don't think he folds everything but Qx (he doesn't have many Queens in his range other than AQ or QQ). He's a nit and nits don't like to fold what they perceive to be great hands even if your betting should let them know they're beaten. If you raise and he folds it's very likely he had a hand that he wouldn't have bet again on the river anyway.

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Good point. If he was a loose aggrodonk, would you flat turn instead? I think it would be hard for villain to put us on Qx if we flat both flop & turn.

If he's really aggro maybe but honestly any line you take on the turn is going to look strong enough to give most players pause. What's your image like?

WVHillbilly said:

If he's really aggro maybe but honestly any line you take on the turn is going to look strong enough to give most players pause. What's your image like?

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Yeah, you're right. I raised turn, he hesitated for a moment then folded. It's just one of those situations, i'm either going to get paid off from Qx/22 or he's got something else and won't put any more money in the pot anyway.

It's Rush so there's no real metagame. He'll just have same amount of history on me if he's running a HUD. I'd assume he sees me as a decent semi-LAG.

Thanks for you input, I'm just over thinking this. Cheers!

Any merit to raising pre or is there no point against his nitty stats?

Also if the 9 was actually a card lower than 9 would you call the turn and get a cheap showdown, raise to take control of the pot, or fold assuming he has the queen?