$10 NLHE Full Ring: River Spot: Losing Value or Value Betting yourself?

pokerman27

pokerman27

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 15, 2009
Total posts
753
Chips
0
$10 NLHE Full Ring: River Spot: Losing Value or Value Betting yourself?

Villain is relative unknown having only been at the table for 5 hands but has limped them all so far so I've marked him as a fish already.

We raise IP to isolate and hit a decent enough flop which we c-bet and get called and get great turn which we bet again and get called. Once the four hits on the river and he checks to us can we value bet here or are we owning ourself? Any deuce beats us the only Ace we're beating are A6, A7, and A8... we're beating a whole host of Qx, Kx, Jx hands...so should we fire again?

full tilt poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1202281


DeucesCracked Poker Videos
Hand History Converter

SB: $11.75
BB: $11.69
UTG: $15.51
UTG+1: $18.25
MP1: $10.10
MP2: $10.00
Hero (CO): $10.00
BTN: $4.30

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with :9s4: :as4:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) :3c4: :ac4: :js4: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG+1 calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.15) :5s4: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.70, UTG+1 calls $1.70

River: ($5.55) :4c4: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ???
 
Last edited by a moderator:
pokerman27

pokerman27

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 15, 2009
Total posts
753
Chips
0
Not quite sure what's happened to the images - have asked for a mod to look at it.
 
T

TorreyB

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2010
Total posts
168
Chips
0
I personally would check the river. Once you get more hands on the villian you'll know his range a little better.
 
nabmom

nabmom

Community Guide
Community Guide
Joined
Dec 24, 2009
Total posts
6,371
Awards
13
Chips
325
Here's my thinking:

Assume he's loose/passive calling station. If he's limped all 5 of the hands you've seen him in, I have to think that is a safe assumption.

I think of these types of players as:
* can't be pushed off draw
* not very aware of kickers
* Likes to get to SD because he'll assume we're bluffing him a lot but probably only when he's hit some piece of the board.

If he hit a draw to get a big hand (is that only with A2 and 22) or if he hit trips, he'd bet. Wouldn't he? AJ would also bet if this line of reasoning makes sense.

If he hit a top pair/who cares what kicker, I could see him taking this line because he's passive.

If he hit nothing at all, would even a calling station keep calling with nothing? That makes me think that Kx and Qx are less likely.

So that leaves him with Ax and Jx.

More cards that we beat than cards we don't. I can't see that value betting thinly is wrong. If he raises (seems unlikely) then we fold.

Now let's have someone far wiser than me tell us if I'm even close in my thinking.
 
M

mikejm

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 13, 2010
Total posts
212
Chips
0
Yea i would value bet, villain just seems like a calling station you are ahead most of the time here.
 
pokerman27

pokerman27

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 15, 2009
Total posts
753
Chips
0
I've had a few spots like this recently and seems whenever I check I should have bet and whenever I bet I get raised! The amount of value I've missed in checking would seem to be balanced by the money lost when betting in marginal river spots like this
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
I'd prefer to see a showdown here.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Without knowing that he's very likely to call 3 streets with Jx I think this is a check behind. You're hand is not that strong here and while there is likely some slight value to be had by betting, I think seeing his hand at SD is probably going to be more worthwhile.
 
pokerman27

pokerman27

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 15, 2009
Total posts
753
Chips
0
Without knowing that he's very likely to call 3 streets with Jx I think this is a check behind. You're hand is not that strong here and while there is likely some slight value to be had by betting, I think seeing his hand at SD is probably going to be more worthwhile.

Yeah, this was my thinking. I checked feeling pretty sure I was ahead but just knew if I bet and he raised I couldn't call. Figuring I had decent showdown value I just checked and he showed...

that he was a gutshot chaser - KTo
 
Related Betting Guides: CA Betting - AU Betting - UK Betting - SportsBetting Poker - BetStars
Top