Originally Posted by Stu_Ungar
Personally I would have called the reraise and played the flop.
Is this a mistake?
Given the info at hand? not really no...although see below for discussion of his 45 hand sample and it's reliability.
I don't think anyone has made any comments on that yet. Generally speaking the point at which you start to become committed is when 10% of the smaller stack goes in. $1.60 is ~14% of the smaller stack. This basically puts you at or just over the point where you need to decide if you are committed or not. You need to know right now if you are going all the way with QQ as an overpair basically. If the flop comes with an ace or a king, and you check fold... that might be a minor mistake but not a horribly huge one. If the flop and turn come with relatively dry undercards and you decide to c/c flop and c/f turn to pressure that would be horrible for example.
Regardless though you need to know what flops you will commit on and what flops you will give up on if you decide to flat. I think flatting has more merit in position than out though for what it's worth.
Regarding the comments about 45 hands being useless... I disagree somewhat. OP said that this was his 2nd 3bet in the last 2 orbits (18 hands) if he's 3bet even once in the first 27 hands prior to those 18 I'm going to start pegging him as a probable light 3 better. It isn't absolutely conclusive sure, but it does mark him as more likely.
The chances someone is going to get dealt AA, KK or AK 3 times in 45 hands is as follows :
p = 28/1361 = ~.02
(3 C 45)(.02)^3(.98)^42 = .0417 = ~4.2%
The odds of someone being dealt AA, KK or AK 4 times in 45 hands is a WHOPPING: 0.77% (as in less than 1%)
If this is only his 2nd 3bet in those hands, the probability jumps to: ~16%
So...if he's 3 bet 3 times in that sample it's highly unlikely he's doing it with AA/KK/AK only (little less than 5% chance) if he's done it 4 times, there's a less than 1% chance. Food for thought.
/edited to fix numbers cause I can't type them in right apparently