$10 NLHE Full Ring: QJs makes top pair against loose(?) villain (Part II)

$10 NL HE Full Ring: QJs makes top pair against loose(?) villain (Part II)

The following includes the events up to and including the flop.

Note: Part I covers why it was a poor pre-flop call on my part; you can flame my play in that thread.

I will go ahead and post the hand up to the river (I am limited in how many posts I can make in a 24 hour period at this stage). The result of the hand was suppressed.




poker stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $11.45
Hero (CO): $11.70
BTN: $18.75
SB: $10.00
BB: $10.00
UTG: $8.25

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with J ♥ Q ♥
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN raises to $0.80, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.75) J ♦ 5 ♦ 8 ♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero raises to $1.80, BTN calls $0.90

Turn: ($5.35) 8 ♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($5.35) 9 ♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.40, Hero calls $3.40


Looking back at this now: it is pretty bad play on my part. Yikes

Ok well u now know that when people 3bet, at least at these stakes, most of the time they're doing it with the top of their range(TT+, AQ+,AJs+ I think). That being said I probably just call the flop bet and fold to a turn bet unless I hit a jack or queen. On the flop I don't like your min raise. If you want to raise someone make sure you make it at least 3 times the size of their bet.

Told you in part 1. Do not call 3bets OOP

everything that happens after the call is just compounded wrongness.

Lets assume a standard 5% 3baet range 99+ AQs+ AK

If he were to call your CR with 99 then he made it on the river (although its unlikely) so does he call with 99 because if he dosent then lets look at his PP
AA beat you
KK beat you
QQ beats you
JJ only on combo but beats you
TT you beat
99 you beat

So even if he calls your 3bet with 100% of his range you lose in the LR

Lets look at J high hands

AJ beats you
KJ beats you but isnt in his 3bet range
QJ chops
JJ beats you
JTs isnt in his 3bet range but you beat

So against his J high hands you do badly

What about draws?

KQs you are ahead of on the flop, but would probably call a min raise
QTs JTs not really in his 3bet range, would probably call the flop raise

JTs might shove KQs has overcards

But when compared to pairs and and J high hands draws are a smaller % of his hands so betting here isnt charging draws as often as it is paying off bigger hands.

His call makes me think he is on an under pair, a draw or a J and remember you arent doing well against the range of jacks he could have.

turn check check.

weak jack low PP or draw

river the draw gets there you check.

with the pot size as it is this is a bad place for him to bluff, you will call with any jack 89 99 just got there you could have a flush, he is better off checking behind here, but he bets.

You only beat a total bluff here. Of all the hands that he could 3bet you beat AQs AKo and TT

We can widen his range and thats something you need to look at but QJ is rarely going to be better than a coin flip against his J range

When you look at his PP you need him to be not only playing more but calling the CR and then bluffing with 66 to make this profitable.

Being OOP isnt helping either because you are always in the dark over what he will do.

Zoinks!!! I would say the call of the 3bet preflop was kind of a bad idea. On the flop, I would have expected him to have AJ at the very least. It's not easy to fold top pair on the flop, but you are out of position and he is 3 betting you. When the 2nd 8 comes on the turn, you check and he checks. I don't have him on the 8 unless it's pocket 8's, so it is possible for you to bet the turn and try to take the pot. If he raises, then you can fold without facing a decision on the river. His check on the turn may have been either weakness or an attempt to get you to bet the river. You have to be feeling pretty weak on the river when he bet 3.40 (apparently for value). I would have expected a value bet from him on the turn but he decided not to bet for some reason. Because of his check on the turn, I would think this may be a bluff. I would have to call the river bet. I don't know the outcome, but I would have to pay him off and lose another 3.40 for a chance at the 9 bucks already in the pot. It may be a bad call, but if you had folded pre-flop, then you may have saved yourself from having to make this decision. I'm assuming you lost because you said it was bad play for you, but you took the had to the river and the bet you were facing was not outlandish. Maybe a value bet or a value bet bluff.

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis, Stu and others; I'm sure it will help others as well as myself to see how to "correctly" reason these decisions.

drgilbert4 said:

Zoinks!!!

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Zoinks indeed -- I recall my "train of thought" after that hand. Walked away from it for 48 hours, came back, and cringed.

drgilbert4 said:

His check on the turn may have been either weakness or an attempt to get you to bet the river. You have to be feeling pretty weak on the river when he bet 3.40 (apparently for value).

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I also sensed weakness when combining the following (please correct me if I am thinking about his wrong)

1. He just called my flop re-raise, and checked the turn
3. Value "bluff"ed the river

On it own, these two items by no means convey weakness. However, given his play over the past 15+ hands, I was sure he wasn't too strong. Don't know how to describe it exactly, but his play noticeably "changed". Perhaps software is a worthwhile investment after all....

I actually "won" this pot (he had AKo) ; for some reason, I sensed weakness on the river and called. However, this was not a winning sequence of plays by me: yuck.

docStats said:

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis, Stu and others; I'm sure it will help others as well as myself to see how to "correctly" reason these decisions.


Zoinks indeed -- I recall my "train of thought" after that hand. Walked away from it for 48 hours, came back, and cringed.

I also sensed weakness when combining the following (please correct me if I am thinking about his wrong)

1. He just called my flop re-raise, and checked the turn
3. Value "bluff"ed the river

I actually "won" this pot (he had AKo) ; for some reason, I sensed weakness on the river and called. However, this was not a winning sequence of plays by me: yuck.

Click to expand...

Could have played the same with a diamond draw which got there or 99

docStats said:

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis, Stu and others; I'm sure it will help others as well as myself to see how to "correctly" reason these decisions.


Zoinks indeed -- I recall my "train of thought" after that hand. Walked away from it for 48 hours, came back, and cringed.

I also sensed weakness when combining the following (please correct me if I am thinking about his wrong)

1. He just called my flop re-raise, and checked the turn
3. Value "bluff"ed the river

On it own, these two items by no means convey weakness. However, given his play over the past 15+ hands, I was sure he wasn't too strong. Don't know how to describe it exactly, but his play noticeably "changed". Perhaps software is a worthwhile investment after all....

I actually "won" this pot (he had AKo) ; for some reason, I sensed weakness on the river and called. However, this was not a winning sequence of plays by me: yuck.

Click to expand...

It is okay to play like this for one hand, but you are correct in thinking it was a bad line to take in general. It sounds like you went with your read on the player from the beginning. I would definitely get PokerTracker or Holdem Manager. It is a wise investment for sure... They both have a trial period. I use PT3 myself. Good luck to you!

Stu_Ungar said:

Could have played the same with a diamond draw which got there or 99

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I agree... sometimes you have to pay a guy off if you think you have a read on him. This villain had to be very aggressive for the hero to have had this kind of read in 15 or so hands. This was probably the case. The problem with this kind of play is that it makes multi-tabling difficult (a good HUD program helps). It is also exploitable because the next time you are in a pissing match with this opponent or another opponent at this table, they can play the same way against you when they are actually holding the nuts.

There are literally 3 hands in the villains range that we beat. This is not a situation where we want to be making reads and going with them.

Stu_Ungar said:

There are literally 3 hands in the villains range that we beat. This is not a situation where we want to be making reads and going with them.

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+1 I'm thanking my lucky stars on this one.

Fair enough, but somehow the OP found himself in the hand after he should have folded preflop and then committed himself on the flop. I totally agree that this is terrible spot to make a read, but this can be an acceptable call on the river if it isn't a habit that creates a major leak in your game. I had to lose a lot of money learning not to do this kind of thing (calling a 3bet out of position without holding the nuts), but my point here was that if you feel it and you make the correct call, then it has to be a good play. The problem lies with "feeling it" too often and making a lot of incorrect calls to lose a bunch of money. Poker players are usually creatures of habit. This type of play is unacceptable as a habit. In most cases this is a losing line to take.

Grunch....

bet/fold flop. After you c/r flop though I think you have to bet turn. As played, meh... I c/c river sometimes

You should fold your cards preflop

ljove said:

You should fold your cards preflop

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To the 3 bet not open fold

bgomez89 said:

To the 3 bet not open fold

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I was going see this. Open folding is way too tight imo here.