$10 NLHE Full Ring: Pre-flop Coin Flip on Carbon

arahel_jazz

arahel_jazz

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$10 NL HE Full Ring: Pre-flop Coin Flip on Carbon

Playing some late night 10NL on Carbon. Villian is Russian and bought in really short and has done nothing but fold or push in the last 50 hands.

Pardon the crude HH - its carbon... just took notes.

0.05/0.10 NL

Villian ($2.41)
Hero ($12.45) <<-- up an insane $7.45 in something like 9 showdowns over those 50 hands (none against him).

Hero delt 9c 9d

Villian Posts SB 0.05
BB Posts BB 0.10
+1 Posts IB 0.10
+2 Folds
Hero Raised to 0.40
Folds
Folds
Folds
Folds
Button Folds
Villian All In 2.31
BB Folds
Hero .... ???

I've been running hot. I figured him for an Ace-something, and it would be a coin flip.

Call or Fold?
 
trashcan

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For sure, relatively easily call imo
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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I call here out of pure habit - ss, agg, shove happy.
 
JimmyBrizzy

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Put your opponent on a hand you can beat, and call. Nice strategy, I like it....

It's called optimism. 50% of the time, it works all the time.

Mr. Jazz, first off, I hate short stackers so take a look at how many hands he has been pushing and in what situations he has done it. Has he pushed over raisers before, does he limp push, or has he basically pushed ever single hand... in other words, is he a maniac or does he seem to be playing the short stack strategy well?

If you wanna take a a look at it mathmatically first consider your pot odds. I can't see the hand anymore but I think you were getting something like 1.5:1 odds. So you'd have to be able to win this hand >40% of the time.

Now go download Pokerstove if you don't have it already. Assign player 1 your exact hand, and then taking a guess assign player 2 a combination of hands that makes sense for him to be pushing. Evaluate. Are you >40% to win?

I don't really play FR, but just taking a looking at it seems like a pretty marginal call and might not be to far on one side of having a + or (-) EV, which would be the similar if you folded (0EV). I would just find the fold button and move on, unless he really is pushing every single hand, which opens up his range to include more hands you beat, and you just need to scratch that itch.
 
bubbasbestbabe

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99, marginal call here. If he is playing a ss strategy then he will push with any A, any suited cards, connectors and gap connectors, plus any small PP. Coin flip at best. Fold and wait for better hand.
 
GeoffLacey

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99, marginal call here. If he is playing a ss strategy then he will push with any A, any suited cards, connectors and gap connectors, plus any small PP. Coin flip at best. Fold and wait for better hand.

Pretty sure this isn't his range. If it was then we'd have like 66% equity and it'd be a call

Edit: I didn't include unsuited connectors and gappers when I stoved, in which case we'd have huge equity. Yeah that really isn't his range....

However I do think this is probably a fold. In the OP it only says 'All he's done is fold or shove' and doesn't say how much he's been doing either of those. Could do with information on whether OP has seen any of the hands he's shoved
 
arahel_jazz

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It's called optimism. 50% of the time, it works all the time.

Mr. Jazz, first off, I hate short stackers so take a look at how many hands he has been pushing and in what situations he has done it. Has he pushed over raisers before, does he limp push, or has he basically pushed ever single hand... in other words, is he a maniac or does he seem to be playing the short stack strategy well?

If you wanna take a a look at it mathmatically first consider your pot odds. I can't see the hand anymore but I think you were getting something like 1.5:1 odds. So you'd have to be able to win this hand >40% of the time.

Now go download Pokerstove if you don't have it already. Assign player 1 your exact hand, and then taking a guess assign player 2 a combination of hands that makes sense for him to be pushing. Evaluate. Are you >40% to win?

I don't really play FR, but just taking a looking at it seems like a pretty marginal call and might not be to far on one side of having a + or (-) EV, which would be the similar if you folded (0EV). I would just find the fold button and move on, unless he really is pushing every single hand, which opens up his range to include more hands you beat, and you just need to scratch that itch.

I did that after the hand...

99 vs. AQ suited was a 53/47
99 vs. AK non-suited was a 56/44
99 vs. A-rag was over 60%

I had only seen him shove two or three times out of the last 50 hands, mostly with an Ace-something, so yeah I think he was playing his stack well. I noticed that he like to push over raisers no matter what position he was in.

I thought long and hard about the call, and went ahead and made it. I knew it was a coin flip going in, wanted to see if my luck would hold out.

No joy - he turned over AQ suited hearts. I wouldn't have called it a hand "I can beat", but I was 53/47 on it.

The problem was that the flop came AA7 and no help on the turn/river.

All the odds in the world won't help you when you get gobsmacked on the flop.
 
JimmyBrizzy

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I did that after the hand...

99 vs. AQ suited was a 53/47
99 vs. AK non-suited was a 56/44
99 vs. A-rag was over 60%

His range is bigger than this.

I had only seen him shove two or three times out of the last 50 hands, mostly with an Ace-something, so yeah I think he was playing his stack well. I noticed that he like to push over raisers no matter what position he was in.

50 hands isn't much of a sample, but he obviously isn't just shoving every hand and has only raised 4-6% of his hands AI. If that is accurate you're about break even.

I still think this is a pretty marginal call, but I don't think it's a terrible play.

A bigger problem may be in the way you are assigning ranges to the villains you face at the tables.
 
c9h13no3

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A bigger problem may be in the way you are assigning ranges to the villains you face at the tables.
Ding ding ding! We have a winner folks.

"I figure him for ace something" isn't a great way to assign a range. He's obviously going to shove with AA-TT, and likely with stuff like KQ too. The preflop call is fine, just the way you're thinking about his range makes it okay to call with 22. And you're obviously thinking in a super-awful-terribad way if 22 becomes a hand that you think you have 45% equity with when you call a shove.
 
JimmyBrizzy

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Villian is Russian

I also thought this was a weird/funny bit of extra information.

Am I missing something or do we play differently against those god damn Russians!??!?!!
 
Passion_play

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Raise or Call your choice:smile: here.
 
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