$10 NLHE Full Ring: Overpair Vs Flop Raise

Melkor

Melkor

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$10 NL HE Full Ring: Overpair Vs Flop Raise

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/13/2

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HAND #1
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poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $9.50 (95 bb)
UTG+1: $3.70 (37 bb)
MP1: $16 (160 bb)
MP2: $9.60 (96 bb)
MP3: $11.25 (112.5 bb)
CO: $2.40 (24 bb)
BTN: $5.70 (57 bb)
Hero (SB): $11.05 (110.5 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with J J
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB folds, MP2 calls $1
Flop: ($3.10) 5 8 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP2 raises to $5, Hero ???

My stats on the villain may not be totally accurate but they were definitely around that region. I have no real other reads except he hasn't shown this sort of aggression before on the flop.

I was really 50/50 with this.
 
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phemalephenom

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I would push and lose when his 7-7 made a str8!

Really though. He isnt raising a set there (imo) and anything that beats you is raising your preflop. I say you are currently ahead
 
burntrider

burntrider

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My guess is that he's got small pair like 99 or 77, possibly A8 for top pair, and got aggressive after your PF raise as well as the gut shot. Shove all-in.
 
J

JoeDi

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call.. your an over pair.. low stakes .. these guys push aggressively for kicks..

he may have an over pair bu why push so hard..
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Folding an overpair after you 3bet preflop is worse than stacking so go ahead and get it in. If he has a set snicker to yourself that he's losing $$ every time he's set mining without odds. No, it won't really make you feel any better but it's true.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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Well, he did raise PF before flatting. I don't expect too many players at 10nl to open raise medium pairs. About as many as would flat AA/KK behind a raise or 3 bet.

AK is a possibility. I'm kinda 50/50 myself on this but like WV says you 3bet pre and the flop is low so getting it in is fine.
 
Steveg1976

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Well, he did raise PF before flatting. I don't expect too many players at 10nl to open raise medium pairs. About as many as would flat AA/KK behind a raise or 3 bet.

AK is a possibility. I'm kinda 50/50 myself on this but like WV says you 3bet pre and the flop is low so getting it in is fine.

His stats are close to mine, enough so that you can't discount him raising with the higher middle pp's anyway ( I do it a lot) I say 6's and higher. And a raise/flat is exactly what players at this level do when they raise middle pp's and get 3-bet, I don't do that ;)
 
Melkor

Melkor

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The thing is that if he isn't raising middling pairs preflop then the three hannds I was thinking he could have that we beat, TT, 99 and 77, should be discounted right? I think the three sets and the three hands we beat are in the mix along with QQ.

Sure, 10NL players are not the best but his small aggression factor had me thinking would he seriously go crazy with an over like TT and made me really doubt AK.

The 3-bet factor wasn't one I had considered and is probably correct that I should get it in with such a big pot so maybe I am too scared.
 
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