$10 NLHE Full Ring: Overpair on paired board, river check-raise

Weird that he called flop and turn and check-raised river. Stats are only over 11 hands but looks like the kind of player that will play and two hands until they make a monster...

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($7.50)
SB ($10)
BB ($10)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($4.78)
MP1 ($11.30)
MP2 ($13.58)
Hero (MP3) ($11.83)
CO ($11.14)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K , K
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, 4 folds, MP1 calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) 10 , 5 , 10 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.68, MP1 calls $0.68

Turn: ($2.31) 2 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50

River: ($5.31) J (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3.50, MP1 raises to $8.72 (All-In), Hero...

With no extra reads it's kind of difficult.

Missed draw if he was chasing the flush in the flop. Possible so it's a bluff.
Calling your bets with Tx, lot's of possibilities there AT KT QT JT T9s and you are behind.
Overpair? JJ and AA you are nailed. QQ you are ahead.
55 maybe, but you don't know if he 3bets flops with sets.
I don't think he has AJ KJ QJ or why would he keep calling you?

Really difficult, I'm not sure I'd call this.

So gross. This is probably a fold, but we're getting something like 3.4:1. I think I vomit & fold, but its close and I don't think calling is really bad either.

I think I call for the note if nothing else since it really is close. Either he bluffs missed draws on the river or he slow plays trips on drawy boards.

WVHillbilly said:

I think I call for the note if nothing else since it really is close. Either he bluffs missed draws on the river or he slow plays trips on drawy boards.

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Literally paying for information.

I thought about doing this so many times... but never did it. It's sick to call like that. Hope that kind of pair grows with time passing by.

RVladimiro said:

Literally paying for information.

I thought about doing this so many times... but never did it. It's sick to call like that. Hope that kind of pair grows with time passing by.

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Yeah, I think it's fine to do in cases like this where it's close and your EV lost is so small that you're not paying much for the info. Doing it when the price is high is just dumb though.

You gotta ask yourself why this guy keeps check/calling you on the flop/turn. He's either got a monster or was on a draw and is trying to bluff the pot away.

Reads are crucial here. Does he chase draws? How has he played monsters before? If you don't have any reads, i think a fold is in order here.

Also, I don't much like your river bet as it only opens you up to what just happened. A check behind here I think is going to be your better play. What would call your river bet? As RVladimiro mentioned above, there are a bunch of hands that have you crushed and only a few you can beat minus a bluff.

If you were good, a check behind ensures you win. If you were crushed, then a check behind saves you your remaining stack.

I dont think betting the river is bad. This guy has saw like 9 out of 11 flops since he came to the table. Donks with 90vpip could be calling with just about anything and I still think I could get value on 3 streets from him. Also check-raising the river isn't common, mostly a river check means I am ahead as most people don't check monsters on the river to let it be checked round...

I dont think betting the river is bad either, infact im betting more on the river and the J is a good card too, could see the worst of fish reraising all in with AJ here, most would call though.

But Shaggy is right, i think its very close between fold and call but on my better days im probably folding as microstakes player pools are really big and there is a good chance we wont see this guy again so its very debatable on how worthwhile a note is on this guy, i might be more tempted to call if it was someone i play lots with who i dont have a read on mind, still guessing most unknowns are floating to the loose passive side rather than the loose aggressive side and river check raises are just so strong i dont think youre good on average the amount you need to be in this spot, which although is low like 25% i think? Probably not going to be good even that amount of time.

Betting the river is MANDATORY. Checking behind because we fear a check-raise would be horrible.

As for some of the other points about calling if he's a reg vs a random, you're right against a reg I don't have good notes on calling becomes even more attractive. Here we do have a couple of things going for us even against a non-reg though. First and most importantly we have good position on him at the table since he is 2 to our right. Second OP states that he seems loose so we should get more chances to play pots with him if he does get our stack.

The discussion above is really interesting.

My read is that he is holding JJ. From the flop above, this is a tricky play. All hero needs to have (or get) is Q+ pair and villain is dominated. So in my view the check/calling is valid. But, worryingly in MP1 position he didn't raise. I wonder how many people try to see the flop as cheaply as possible at micro level?

RVladimiro shows he could he holding other cards and makes valid and valuable points. If he had 55 the full house allows good value betting. Check/calling until river gives Hero opportunity to make a hand, so aggression would be indicated. If he had trip 10's again this should indicate aggression. Either way Hero is dominated.

If he were bluffing to the river he would have tried to take the hand down by grabbing the initiative at the flop or turn - this leaves the failed flush draw and the river bluff, check raising as a bluff, in this specific hand, is a very clever move not one many players would employ in micro stakes, in my view.

My read is that the Villain made is hand at the river : Full House J's over 10's

In my opion the correct play for Hero is fold. :vroam:

putting someone on a specific hand (more specifically, 3 combos of the nuts) is bad.

Id bet a little bigger on the flop and turn but a little smaller on the river (unless he has just hit a jack then were are targeting hands like 88 and 99)

I probably fold here as a missed draw usually leads the river or CF but rarely CR the river.