$10 NLHE Full Ring: Overpair in a 3bet pot ?

R

razzor94

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 3, 2015
Total posts
344
Awards
1
Chips
1
poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

I would like your opinion on the line i took ? Is there anything you think you would do differently ?
Villain is a REG VPIP: 14 PFR:11 AG:2.5 3BET:6.0 F3BET:50 hands:411

SB: $10.81 (108.1 bb)
BB: $10.27 (102.7 bb)
UTG+1: $8.81 (88.1 bb)
UTG+2: $10.20 (102 bb)
MP1: $5.20 (52 bb)
MP2: $10.45 (104.5 bb)
MP3: $8.65 (86.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $15.82 (158.2 bb)
BTN: $14.89 (148.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J
diamond4.gif
J
spade4.gif

UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.10, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $0.40, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $1.20, 4 folds, MP2 calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.65) 3
diamond4.gif
5
diamond4.gif
8
club4.gif
(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.27, MP2 calls $1.27

Turn: ($5.19) 6
club4.gif
(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $3, MP2 raises to $7.98, Hero calls $4.98

River: ($21.15) 7
diamond4.gif
(2 players)

Results: $21.15 pot ($0.95 rake)
Final Board: 3
diamond4.gif
5
diamond4.gif
8
club4.gif
6
club4.gif
7
diamond4.gif

MP2 showed Q
club4.gif
Q
spade4.gif
and won $20.20 ($9.75 net)
Hero showed J
diamond4.gif
J
spade4.gif
and lost (-$10.45 net)
 
E

edcwy

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 10, 2017
Total posts
126
Chips
0
MP2 Calling your re-raise, given Villain's VPIP of 14 suggests a real hand. Subsequent checks and calls given Villain's VPIP suggests, strength. What's villain's range going to be to get this far? Villain has got to be on a big pair. Villain is unlikely on a set. Calling your re-raise with pockets 88? Unlikely. Hero's not re-raising preflop without a hand. So hero's range AA - JJ, maybe 10s depending on the player.

Did you become pot committed? Did you over value your pocket JJs? Does Villain have a read? My guess is that your VPIP/PFR is more aggressive than villains.

I probably would have 2bet villain preflop in stead of your 3bet given Villain's stats. I would have C bet as you did but my C bet would have been been only about $.75 I would have been leery of a double barrel given Villain's VPIP. So check the turn, and take a river card knowing I was probably behind, hoping to check it down at this stage, knowing villain is probably going to value bet the river.

But what do I know, I'm just learning.
 
R

razzor94

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 3, 2015
Total posts
344
Awards
1
Chips
1
MP2 Calling your re-raise, given Villain's VPIP of 14 suggests a real hand. Subsequent checks and calls given Villain's VPIP suggests, strength. What's villain's range going to be to get this far? Villain has got to be on a big pair. Villain is unlikely on a set. Calling your re-raise with pockets 88? Unlikely. Hero's not re-raising preflop without a hand. So hero's range AA - JJ, maybe 10s depending on the player.

Did you become pot committed? Did you over value your pocket JJs? Does Villain have a read? My guess is that your VPIP/PFR is more aggressive than villains.

I probably would have 2bet villain preflop in stead of your 3bet given Villain's stats. I would have C bet as you did but my C bet would have been been only about $.75 I would have been leery of a double barrel given Villain's VPIP. So check the turn, and take a river card knowing I was probably behind, hoping to check it down at this stage, knowing villain is probably going to value bet the river.

But what do I know, I'm just learning.

Thank you for your reply.
My stats are 14 11 2.3 ; over 17k hands. So basicly the same.
His Fold to 3bet is 50% but in this spot OOP i am putting him on the top 6% that he would actually with. Basicly 88+ AK+ and maybe AQs.
Given the fact that i had position i thought this is a +EV 3bet.
Against a fishier player i am cbeting here 2/3 pot or even 80% but against this type of player sizing it that much would only keep him in the hand with QQ+ and AdKd.
The other reason i bet 1/2 pot in this spot is becouse i would do this with all my hands. 88+ and all my AQ and AK.
I thought it would balance out my range and keep him in the pot with somethink like 99 TT and some AK with a BDFD.
I dont know if he would check raise AdKd in this spot but he probably would.
I dont think 0.75$ cbet acomplishes much cause what am i representing with that cbet?

I think i made a mistake on the turn. I should have probably went for SD and pot control but instead i made a 2/3 cbet which was yet another mistake i think. With that bet i was pot commited and i dont think he would jam 99 TT in that spot even though at that time i thought he could. I dont think he could have AdKd becouse he would check raise that. He could have AcKc and QQ+.
 
D

Dwarf

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 19, 2016
Total posts
245
Chips
0
I thought it would balance out my range and keep him in the pot with somethink like 99 TT and some AK with a BDFD.
I dont know if he would check raise AdKd in this spot but he probably would.
I dont think 0.75$ cbet acomplishes much cause what am i representing with that cbet?

I think i made a mistake on the turn.

I agree that your mistake was on the turn. I think the 6clubs is a nasty card to turn.

The problem with that turn is 2 fold.

1. Against tighter opponents(which both you and villain appear to be)
a. you will not get value from an over pair here often. Let alone will you get 3 streets of value.
b. Once the board hits 6c, SOOOO many rivers are going to be nasty. By checking here you are balancing your check range.
c. Assuming villains range of 88+ and AKo AQs+ you have 53% equity with jacks. (In other words villain could call a 2x pot shove profitably in this spot)
d. I would assume villain is going to be betting most rivers after if you check behind the turn. Based on our assumed villain range, most rivers WONT help him.
e. However alot of rivers will encourage him to bet if he is behind, and the ones that most likely out river us, out river him, and will be played check check.

2. Betting this turn against a looser player (which villain is not in this situation) will run you into a myriad of problems.
a. All worse hands should fold.
b. ALOT OF DRAWS that can destroy you will call.
c. When looking at JJ on a 3568 double suited board, 9 clubs, 8 diamonds, two remaining sevens will kill your action. Ontop of that if we add in the 4 remaining Aces and Kings. 23/46 remaining cards will make you have a tough river decision (Especially if you bloat the pot on the turn)

I've only spent 30 minutes trying to type this out so forgive me if its confusing.

I think checking behind in this spot is a better turn play ESPECIALLY against a tighter opponent. He will be encouraged to lead the river. Most rivers that are TOO SCARY for him to lead will be bad for you. Ontop of that planning to check turn call a 75% pot size max river bet gives you a better chips won/chips loss in my experience.

Questions? Comments, and Critiques! Below...
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Please don't post results. You'll get much better analysis that way.

As for the hand, I'm not sure about the 3bet pre. I like it if you think the limping fish will call with a wide range but otherwise you're at best flipping if the TAG continues after you 3bet.

When you bet that flop and get called you're almost certainly up against a big FD or overpair to the board. I'd say TT+/AdKd and against that range you're pretty dead. I think you have to take a street off on the turn and hope to check back the river as well.
 
T

teambuilder

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 25, 2017
Total posts
47
Chips
0
I don't think it would be a mistake to just call his raise pre. If you hadn't said you can build a big pot. If you have overpair you can build a medium pot. If there are over cards you can play it conservatively.

Given that you did 3bet, I think it is pretty standard to bet slightly more than half pot as a cbet after having 3bet. I'd be concerned about his call and check back turn or place a small block bet on turn for cheap showdown on this scary board.
 
R

razzor94

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 3, 2015
Total posts
344
Awards
1
Chips
1
I agree that your mistake was on the turn. I think the 6clubs is a nasty card to turn.

The problem with that turn is 2 fold.

1. Against tighter opponents(which both you and villain appear to be)
a. you will not get value from an over pair here often. Let alone will you get 3 streets of value.
b. Once the board hits 6c, SOOOO many rivers are going to be nasty. By checking here you are balancing your check range.
c. Assuming villains range of 88+ and AKo AQs+ you have 53% equity with jacks. (In other words villain could call a 2x pot shove profitably in this spot)
d. I would assume villain is going to be betting most rivers after if you check behind the turn. Based on our assumed villain range, most rivers WONT help him.
e. However alot of rivers will encourage him to bet if he is behind, and the ones that most likely out river us, out river him, and will be played check check.

2. Betting this turn against a looser player (which villain is not in this situation) will run you into a myriad of problems.
a. All worse hands should fold.
b. ALOT OF DRAWS that can destroy you will call.
c. When looking at JJ on a 3568 double suited board, 9 clubs, 8 diamonds, two remaining sevens will kill your action. Ontop of that if we add in the 4 remaining Aces and Kings. 23/46 remaining cards will make you have a tough river decision (Especially if you bloat the pot on the turn)

I've only spent 30 minutes trying to type this out so forgive me if its confusing.

I think checking behind in this spot is a better turn play ESPECIALLY against a tighter opponent. He will be encouraged to lead the river. Most rivers that are TOO SCARY for him to lead will be bad for you. Ontop of that planning to check turn call a 75% pot size max river bet gives you a better chips won/chips loss in my experience.

Questions? Comments, and Critiques! Below...

I like your thought process. I didnt take the time to think about everything.
Later i realized i made a mistake.
 
R

razzor94

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 3, 2015
Total posts
344
Awards
1
Chips
1
Please don't post results. You'll get much better analysis that way.

As for the hand, I'm not sure about the 3bet pre. I like it if you think the limping fish will call with a wide range but otherwise you're at best flipping if the TAG continues after you 3bet.

When you bet that flop and get called you're almost certainly up against a big FD or overpair to the board. I'd say TT+/AdKd and against that range you're pretty dead. I think you have to take a street off on the turn and hope to check back the river as well.

Dont show results - - - > NOTED
I think calling is surely a valid option and probably a better one in this spot, but calling and raising have their merits. If i call i am giving the btn a reasonable price to call IP and the limper as well. With JJ i am not so confident to play MW especially OOP. On the other hand if i call i might keep weaker part of his range in play and play poker post flop, whether if i raise he folds all his weaker stuff and calls or 4bets better.
So i cant say that 3bet is a big big mistake but i agree that calling is probably a slightly better option in this spot.
 
R

RakeMyLife

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 1, 2013
Total posts
208
Chips
0
Haven't read all other posts, but I think the turn should be a check. Given his stats, his flop call suggests he most likely has a pair in hand as well, and you'd like to pot control as the board is getting very draw heavy (and ripe for set mining) and u don't want to get 3 bet, as u did.

As played, I don't mind calling his raise on the turn. I think his range here includes 77, 99, and 10-10. While overpairs are certainly possible, only QQ is reasonable as he would have 4bet AA, KK. Given that range plus sets in his range (88), I think ur +EV to call.

Actually surprised he had QQ though as YOU could have easily had AA or KK...
 
R

razzor94

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 3, 2015
Total posts
344
Awards
1
Chips
1
Haven't read all other posts, but I think the turn should be a check. Given his stats, his flop call suggests he most likely has a pair in hand as well, and you'd like to pot control as the board is getting very draw heavy (and ripe for set mining) and u don't want to get 3 bet, as u did.

As played, I don't mind calling his raise on the turn. I think his range here includes 77, 99, and 10-10. While overpairs are certainly possible, only QQ is reasonable as he would have 4bet AA, KK. Given that range plus sets in his range (88), I think ur +EV to call.

Actually surprised he had QQ though as YOU could have easily had AA or KK...

Yeah after the raise on the turn there was no folding. The price is just too good given his range.
 
B

BPEPFPDP

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 28, 2015
Total posts
178
Chips
0
This one realy tough spot JJ good hand but not so good... pre flop action was pretty standard paly, fine imo, now the flop interesting board structure, but given to reraise game on pre we can exclude any FS,SD,low pairs, just don't think about it, and we must focus to range like 10-AA only pockets mb 99,88 but that depends on kind of playa, then u did value bet on turn and got reraize and i think we done here, our cards beaten, i'd fold turn.
 
Top