$10 NLHE Full Ring: Nuts is outdrawn on river

$10 NL HE Full Ring: Nuts is outdrawn on river

Just joined game.

Table 'Lachesis III' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: SB ($5.90 in chips)
Seat 2: BB ($4.40 in chips)
Seat 3: ($11.05 in chips)
Seat 4: ($15.55 in chips)
Seat 5: ($10 in chips)
Seat 6: ($5.15 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero ($10 in chips) Posts BB just joined
Seat 8: ($6 in chips)
Seat 9: ($16.70 in chips)

hburgfinest: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [7c 6d]
UTG: calls $0.10
Seat 4: folds
Seat 5: calls $0.10
Seat 6: folds
Hero: checks
Seat 8: checks
Seat 9: calls $0.10
Seat 1: raises $0.20 to $0.30
Seat 2: calls $0.20
Seat 3: calls $0.20
Seat 4: calls $0.20
Hero: calls $0.20
Seat 8: folds
Seat 9: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [As 5s 8c]
SB: bets $0.30
BB: folds
Seat 3: folds
Seat 4: calls $0.30
Hero: calls $0.30
Seat 9: folds
*** TURN *** [As 5s 8c] [9c]
SB: checks
Seat 4: bets $1
Hero: raises $1.50 to $2.50
SB: folds
Seat 4: calls $1.50
*** RIVER *** [As 5s 8c 9c] [4s]
Seat 5: bets $6.90 and is all-in

What do you do and reason why you think what he has?

Fold preflop

Raise the turn a bit more, to say $3.5

Fold river

hard to put him on a flush since he flat called the flop but then he leads the turn. This could suggest he made two small pair of possibly 9sXs. I would fold the river though as what hand would just just shove with that u can beat? He might be overvaluing aces up, but it is most likely he had a flush and just hoped someone would call him

Stu_Ungar said:

Fold preflop

Raise the turn a bit more, to say $3.5

Fold river

Click to expand...

This except replace fold preflop with wait for the big blind.

gkh said:

What do you do and reason why you think what he has?

Click to expand...

I fold because he has a flush. How do I know? I read the thread title. I'm hoping he has 2s3s and binked the SF on the river.

Might want to read this if you ever want real analysis: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/hand-analysis-posting-guidelines-87481/

Also bad beats are better posted here: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poker-goals-challenges-wins-46/

Oh yeah and stop throwing money away by posting behind.

gl

I don't know why I would post in the vent section. I'm not complaining or upset. But I could have explained my thought process.

Well I folded, and I don't know what he had either. Is it wrong to call here preflop? I'm getting about 6:1 odds. Or do the cards need to be double suited?

For situations like this and I'm the first to act on the river, would it better to check or block bet? My guess is against a tight player checking would be best and see what he does. While against a loose aggressive player, a block bet can be better to prevent a raise that I have to fold?

Not too good with EV but lets say I have a good read and the player is bluffing 30% and 70% has the flush. The pot is 7 dollars. If I bet 1/3 pot, making it look like a value bet, he'll fold and other 70% he'll do w/e and i'll fold. Correct me if i'm wrong, then the EV would be :

(.3*7)+(.7*-2.50)=.35 So betting would be good.

Or is this situation really that transparent I just have to admit i'm beat.

At micro stakes, that line really looks like a flush.

I think his all-in is just under a pot sized bet (try the hand converter at stoxpoker.com), there's no point in contesting this pot without solid reads that he's bluffy enough to shove 2 pair or the wheel straight with a higher straight and a flush on the board. You don't need to win every pot - folding is +Ev in this situation imo - you did the right thing here.

Hard to say what to do on the river if you're oop rather than ip - both your and Villain's actions would be substantially different.

To repeat what Deco and WV pointed out - don't post your blinds early, you're throwing money away.

haha okay I'll remember that. I was too excited to play, haven't played in a few weeks.

Yup, fold preflop if someone raises.. but on that river, he try's to bluff or he got the flush, call, i think so.. ;C Though one.

FereZ said:

Yup, fold preflop if someone raises.. but on that river, he try's to bluff or he got the flush, call, i think so.. ;C Though one.

Click to expand...

He may be trying to bluff, but as played the hero is getting 2:1 call.

This means the villain must make this kind of bluff shove on the river 33% of the time for the call to show a profit.

We need some kind of read that the villain does this before suggesting the correct course of action is to call.

Had the turn been bet more and the villain known to bluff rivers then the odds would have been better as the shove would have been smaller, thus giving us better odds.

As played, without a definite read that the villian bluff shoves > 33% of rivers you cannot think the default action should eb to call.

If you're raising the turn to make flush draws pay/ get value from Ax or sets then you should have just shoved all in. At 10nl they're never putting you on 67 and will call with a massive range.

As played.......tough river spot as it could be a spazz out, especially at this level. You only need to have the best hand about 30% of the time but your passive play on the turn has left you in a lameass spot.

Still puke/fold though.

WossaPotOddz said:

You only need to have the best hand about 30% of the time but your passive play on the turn has left you in a lameass spot.

Still puke/fold though.

Click to expand...

If I had put out a big raise and he called. What would be different from the way my hand actually played out? Is it the better odds to call a shove or something?

I said shove all in on the turn

ah okay, my bad.

Imagine this scenario.

You are both equaly stacked. (100BB)

The pot is 0 until the turn.

You feel you have the best hand, but it could be outdrawn, so you bet 10 BB

He calls

He then shoves the river for 90BB.

There is 110 in the pot (90 + 20) so you have to be pretty sure he is bluffing because you are putting in the majority of the money when you are behind.

Now replay the hand with a 90BB bet on the turn.

The hand plays out the same way but on the river he shoves for 10BB leaving you a call of 10BB for a pot of 190BB.

Now, so long as their is a chance he is bluffing (even a remote one) then its an instant call.

In the first case you were getting about 1.2:1 on him bluffing. He had to make this giant raise about 50% of the time for you to be able to justify the call.

In the second scenario you are being offered 19:1. He needs to only make this small raise as a bluff about 5% of the time for you to show an instant profit by calling.

So getting the money in whilst you are ahead makes later decisions much, much easier.

Its exactly the same amount of money, and he has exactly the same cards and the outcome will be exactly the same... but his bluffing frequency has to be very high to call a large bet and quite small to call a small one when outdrawn.

I hope that makes sense to you.

Yeah makes great sense. Thanks.