$10 NLHE Full Ring: No reads, all math

$10 NL HE Full Ring: No reads, all math

I only had 0.35 (calling a standard raise) invested in this pot.

When the flop hit all 3 players before me went all-in and I was the last to act.

No reads. Is it the right math call to go for the flush draw?

I have to figure my odds are not as good as displayed in the screen shot.

For example figuring at least 1 person is probably using up some of my outs with a lower flush draw and almost certainly at least one of my overcards are dead.



I don't mind losing $10 if it's the right call but I happen to not catch the flush.

FWIW I am also coming off a bad week of lesser flushes + straight draws when I looked back and when looking back I was usually behind around 33% / 66% (not to mention 2 set under sets with biggy pairs JJ+ in the last few hours of play)

The simple math in the back of my head was that I'd want at least $30 in the pot for me to invest my $10 with a guaranteed 2 cards to come. The pot was under $30 so I folded.

You need to be good here 39% of the time for this to be a call.

Against their actual hands you've got about 35% equity BUT since we don't know their actual hands we have to estimate our equity based on ranges. Against a few random ranges we get really close to 39% but never much more. I'd say this is always a fold based on the shortness of 2 of the stacks. If there were one more full stack in the hand I'm pretty sure you can never fold.

zek said:

The simple math in the back of my head was that I'd want at least $30 in the pot for me to invest my $10 with a guaranteed 2 cards to come. The pot was under $30 so I folded.

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Keep in mind, though it doesn't necessarily apply here since you're full stacked, that the money has to be available to you too. Ie if you're short it's not going to all be available, or, if you're full but two 200 bb stacks are going at it it won't all be available to you either.

Like I say, it doesn't apply in this situation, but it came to mind after WV posted the opposite side; that the short stacks involved here limit the (implied odds) value of your hand because you can only win less than 100 bbs from either of them.

With the pot odds don't we need to have 34%?

Preflop action... UTG raised & then the next guy w ~40bb only flatted?

I don't play alot of cash tables but personally I'm making the call. It'd be nice if the other's were deeper obviously but I think I'm still getting it in here.

Poker Orifice said:

Preflop action... UTG raised & then the next guy w ~40bb only flatted?

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Yes, the KJ standard raised, and both the KK and AA smooth called the .35.

The first guy I can put on a pair with the all-in on the flop (that's what the shorts do) Would expect JA not JK but whatever they'll go with middle pair too sometimes. You'd think for the others to go all-in at least one would have a set (the big stack) and maybe the last one has a lesser flush draw since he is priced in already. I wouldn't have put that last one on AA ever. It doesn't matter too much since I'm counting only hearts, and I'm only excluding hearts that pair the board from my outs.

If the Rush poker timer did not time me out so fast I may have talked myself into calling.

WVHillbilly said:

You need to be good here 39% of the time for this to be a call.

Against their actual hands you've got about 35% equity BUT since we don't know their actual hands we have to estimate our equity based on ranges. Against a few random ranges we get really close to 39% but never much more. I'd say this is always a fold based on the shortness of 2 of the stacks. If there were one more full stack in the hand I'm pretty sure you can never fold.

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Right.. dam short stackers mess yr implied odds again!